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re: Marilyn vos Savant and the history of the Montel Hall question
Posted on 2/24/15 at 9:55 am to RedHawk
Posted on 2/24/15 at 9:55 am to RedHawk
quote:
Wouldn't picking door #1 twice also be 2/3?
No. That is the same 1/3 you had to begin with.
The problem is the 2-phase part that some people aren't getting. You're making the choice to switch from the very beginning - you're HOPING to get a goat - if you get a goat (2/3) you win the car (on the switch) - if you get the car (1/3) - you really lose the car, which you should be okay with, because you're going with your 2/3.
You have no information to make the switch - you're just playing the percentages from the beginning. If you had more information, it wouldn't work.
1
Posted on 2/24/15 at 10:05 am to Ace Midnight
quote:
You have no information to make the switch - you're just playing the percentages from the beginning. If you had more information, it wouldn't work.
this is the key -- you are playing percentages from the beginning.
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