re: Marilyn vos Savant and the history of the Montel Hall question

quote:

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If you picked the car correctly (your 1/3 pick), you will now be given yet another chance to screw up and change to the wrong pick but this time you have a 50/50 chance instead of the "initial" 1/3 chance.

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If you walk up in the middle of the contest and see two closed doors and one goat, and you have no idea about anything that happened beforehand, your odds of guessing correctly are 50/50.

But if you watched the first guess, your odds are 2/3.

Again, think of it this way:
You can choose one door or two doors. If you choose two doors, the host will show you a goat before opening your other door. Would you still say that "1 door=2 doors"?

I mean by your logic, since the host is dropping a goat before opening the final door, there is no reason to go with 2 doors over 1.