re: Are huge upsets more probable in college football or the NFL?

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The worst NFL team is much closer in talent to the best than the worst college team is to the best, because there are only 32 NFL teams, there's a salary cap, even the worst team has elite talent, etc. So in that sense, it's much more likely that a bad team like the Jaguars would beat the Seahawks than a team like Georgia Southern would beat Florida State.

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Exactly. Even the Jaguars and the Raiders are still professional football teams with nothing but professional football players on their teams. So even if an 0-15 team beat a 15-0 team at the end of the year I think most people would just kind of shrug and then expect that 15-1 team to still do well in the playoffs.