quote:
I’ll be 34 in two months. 140k in my 401k is basically all the retirement money I have. No other accounts other than what my wife has. I see projections right now of BTC at $4M+ per coin by 2050.

So my thinking is right my 401k looks to be worth between 1.5M-2.0M by my earliest retirement age (55). If I were to buy even a half of a bitcoin today, then that could be worth more than my 401k account alone at the end of the same time period.

I haven’t been in the space in a while because I lost a lot of money in it. I bought and sold at the wrong times when I was younger and I got sour to everything. But clearly at this point BTC isn’t going anywhere. It wouldn’t have lasted this long otherwise. So should I just rip out some money and call it being better diversified?

I was thinking of just ripping out 30k of my 401k and going for it. I don’t see the 30k compounded being worth more than 200k at the end of my career. But it could be worth over a million if I parked it in BTC.

Thoughts?

Your position in btc should be sized with your understanding of it. If you're asking here instead of reading everything you can get your hands on I'm going to guess that a 1-2% allocation is probably appropriate for you. Lots of people yolo in without doing the work and get shaken out during their first 20-30% drawdown. Those that do survive those "mild" bull market shake outs inevitably dump at the depths of their first bear market when it nukes 70+%.

LINK /

This^ is a program that allows you to plug in various allocation sizes with different equity baskets see how it affects things. Btc in small allocations, counterintuitively, tends to smooth out the vol of equity portfolios over time. Fun fact: pick any 4 year time period since 2009 and a 2% btc 98% cash portfolio has outperformed the S&P over the same period.

At the bare minimum, read this.

LINK