re: Build Home Now or Wait to Build

quote:

---

Lumber futures are down and projected to fall further. After inflation we will eventually hit a deflationary period when people quit spending on projects in order to afford groceries and $5 gas. This is when the price of materials will fall.

---

Sure, but when and how can you be certain? Likewise, we will indeed hit a deflationary period at some point, but when will that be? I also question how much that will ultimately effect material prices.

Purchasing power increases over the short-term in deflationary periods, so I would be surprised if we see a fall in material prices that's anywhere close to the recent increase. The unfortunate reality for consumers at this point (re: materials) is that people are still buying the stuff en masse. If you are a supplier or a manufacturer, that doesn't give you a whole lot of incentive to lower your prices, regardless of external market forces. Further, builders are adapting to supply chain issues. Now they know they've got to order windows and garage doors super early and they're changing their order of operations to accommodate and mitigate delays.

Not suggesting you are wrong by any means - just offering a counterpoint to say that right now, it's anybody's guess what the future is going to bring.