Great explanation of the jobs report and it's unreliability | TigerDroppings.com
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Midget Death Squad
Notre Dame Fan
3 docks down from the bait shop
Member since Oct 2008
5982 posts

Great explanation of the jobs report and it's unreliability

LINK


Not to start another thread, but this article really puts into light in an unbiased way how to read today's jobs report. Basically the author says that the 7.8 is not a cooked number nor is it accurate. He also says that September is historically a month that yields misleading data (teachers getting hired and such), and it's all based upon mailed in home surveys.

If you look at the "establishment" survey, it shows that the data this last month is no different than the last few months. He also states that once the numbers get revised to be more accurate for the house surveys, you will see the jobs number really is too high and the unemployment rate go back to 8 or above in October.


MFn GIMP
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2011
8959 posts

re: Great explanation of the jobs report and it's unreliability
Zerohedge noticed something weird about 20-24 year old employment. Basically, going back to 1980 20-24 year old employment in September has decreased ever year, except for this year. And even if you look at seasonally adjusted data that number decreases almost every year and when it increases it only increases slightly. In fact this years seasonally adjusted employment status for 20-24 year olds is a larger increase than the increase from 1980-2011 combined.

1980-2011 = 82,000 20-24 year old, seasonally adjusted, jobs created in September.
2012 = 368,000

LINK

ETA: Of the years with gains in September there was an average of 78k.
Losses averaged 102k.

Oh Ben Bernanke referred to the job market as a "grave concern" which is why he wanted to start QE3. Quite an economic turnaround in the 18 days since QE3 has been in effect.
This post was edited on 10/5 at 5:49 pm


lsu13lsu
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2008
3060 posts

re: Great explanation of the jobs report and it's unreliability
Did the Obama campaign hire a bunch of kids?


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NHTIGER
LSU Fan
Central New Hampshire
Member since Nov 2003
12754 posts
Online

re: Great explanation of the jobs report and it's unreliability
quote:

and it's all based upon mailed in home surveys.


The author is completely wrong in making this statement about the Household Survey respondents. There are no mailings involved. All interviews are conducted either in person or by telephone by Census Bureau representatives.

"Personal visits are preferred in the first month in which the household is in the sample. In other months, the interview generally is conducted by telephone. Approximately 70 percent of the households in any given month are interviewed by telephone. A portion of the households (10 percent) is interviewed via computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI), from three centralized telephone centers (located in Hagerstown, MD; Jeffersonville, IN; and Tucson, AZ) by interviewers who also use a computerized questionnaire."

Directly from the BLS website.

LINK
This post was edited on 10/5 at 6:02 pm


CamdenTiger
Member since Aug 2009
29746 posts

re: Great explanation of the jobs report and it's unreliability
Margin of error is only 400,000. So they can flat out lie, and nothing anyone can do....I really starting to just not like America anymore...Is that what they are trying to do, just make the hold-outs give up?


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