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re: Dallas Ebola patient to be prosecuted, circle of contact increased to 100
Posted on 10/3/14 at 12:35 pm to NC_Tigah
Posted on 10/3/14 at 12:35 pm to NC_Tigah
You are citing a generic number originating from a paper that explored the feasibility of certain classes of agents (in this case viral heamorragic fevers) as biological weapons.
There is little hard evidence to pin it down, but a number of those who work in the field with it think that number is absurd. It's "low," but it's low compared to some pathogen need 10000+ to cause a disease
And even if you want to take that number as a given, you have to consider that that means:
That is the number of organisms that gets in your blood somehow, not what you are exposed to. If you swallow fluid with a 1000 Ebola virions and you don't have a cut, gingivitis, or an ulcer, you won't come down with it.
There is little hard evidence to pin it down, but a number of those who work in the field with it think that number is absurd. It's "low," but it's low compared to some pathogen need 10000+ to cause a disease
And even if you want to take that number as a given, you have to consider that that means:
That is the number of organisms that gets in your blood somehow, not what you are exposed to. If you swallow fluid with a 1000 Ebola virions and you don't have a cut, gingivitis, or an ulcer, you won't come down with it.
2
Posted on 10/3/14 at 12:47 pm to Volvagia
quote:It's not just low, it's incredibly low.
It's "low," but it's low compared to some pathogen need 10000+ to cause a disease
The 1-10 number, I believe, was based on aerosolized lab exposures. Don't recall anything related to weaponization. Could be. But I don't recall that. I have seen it sourced in several papers. It is as impressive as anything I've read about Ebola. Is there data out there intimating lower potency?
Posted on 10/3/14 at 12:51 pm to NC_Tigah
Antedoctal
Not a lot of work done on Ebola in general and most of it by USAMRIID, which is focused on biological weapons defense.
Franz, D. R., Jahrling, P. B., Friedlander, A. M., McClain, D. J., Hoover, D. L., Bryne, W. R., Pavlin, J. A., Christopher, G. W., & Eitzen, E. M. (1997). Clinical recognition and management of patients exposed to biological warfare agents. Jama, 278(5), 399-411.
Not a lot of work done on Ebola in general and most of it by USAMRIID, which is focused on biological weapons defense.
Franz, D. R., Jahrling, P. B., Friedlander, A. M., McClain, D. J., Hoover, D. L., Bryne, W. R., Pavlin, J. A., Christopher, G. W., & Eitzen, E. M. (1997). Clinical recognition and management of patients exposed to biological warfare agents. Jama, 278(5), 399-411.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 12:53 pm to Volvagia
quote:
If you swallow fluid with a 1000 Ebola virions and you don't have a cut, gingivitis, or an ulcer, you won't come down with it.
With the stories circulating about how people are contracting this, I don't think this is accurate. I have no evidence, just a hunch.
The latest American to come down with it was just "splashed with something".
Something is off here. I doubt all the people infected are walking around with obvious cuts in an area in which they are specifically there to deal with Ebola.
This post was edited on 10/3/14 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 10/3/14 at 1:00 pm to theunknownknight
I agree. I don't think it's a wildfire like many are afraid of but I also think it spreads too easily to be THAT difficult to contract.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 1:03 pm to LSUGrrrl
Ok. So they are now moving the quarantined family to another location. Now they will be forcibly held outside of their home.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 1:13 pm to theunknownknight
quote:
The latest American to come down with it was just "splashed with something".
Link? Not out of doubt, I am interested on keeping abreast with information.
quote:
Something is off here. I doubt all the people infected are walking around with obvious cuts in an area in which they are specifically there to deal with Ebola.
Oh, it doesn't take that.
But a lot of people have horrible habits, and I am counting Americans in that.
Most probably won't admit to it but how many times do you lick your fingers after eating finger food and just go about your day? Maybe throw in a "cleaning" step of wiping the spit on your pants?
Conversely, how many wash their hands before eating?
In any case, what I just described is accurate, just misleading. The qualifiers of no cuts, ulcers, or gingivitis excludes a high portion of adults, even in the West. The point to illustrate the necessity of blood contact for the virus. Mere exposure is insufficient.
This post was edited on 10/3/14 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 10/3/14 at 1:16 pm to theunknownknight
quote:
I doubt all the people infected
And again...all 10,000 of them.
In the US alone there have been 50,000 new infections of HIV in the past year.
So where are these perceptions of highly contagious comes from?
Posted on 10/3/14 at 1:19 pm to theunknownknight
quote:
“At one point he was trying to help decontaminate a car. He had most of the protective gear on, but he thinks something might have splashed on his body at that point. That’s one possibility, but really, one doesn’t know fully,” Diana said.
Ehhhhh.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 1:22 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:
Now they will be forcibly held outside of their home.
Rightfully so. The family was told not to leave home or send their kids to school. They did both. Look where that got them.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 1:32 pm to Volvagia
quote:
So where are these perceptions of highly contagious comes from?
Where the virus is born and spread no doubt contributes to this. I'm probably guilty of it, myself.
However, comparing public health policy between Liberia (for example) and the United States is like comparing the late 20th/early 21st Century with the fictional 23rd/24th Centuries of the Star Trek universe, medicine-wise.
This post was edited on 10/3/14 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 10/3/14 at 1:46 pm to Ace Midnight
Which is part of my point.
You have 10,000 cases, almost all of them in Africa.
In a HORRIBLE public health environment. It is a literal nightmare of containment, with no resources to combat it, and the population insisting that Ebola doesn't exist and as a result they are breaking into clinics treating the patients and destroying them.
All of that....and 10,000 cases in nearly a year.
HIV, which is ONLY spread by bodily fluid to blood contact, has 5 times that in the US medical system, which is light years better.
And yet the media/people are trying to invent some bogeyman that this is more contagious than it actually is. Saying that there is no way that it can be just bodily fluid to blood contact.
You have 10,000 cases, almost all of them in Africa.
In a HORRIBLE public health environment. It is a literal nightmare of containment, with no resources to combat it, and the population insisting that Ebola doesn't exist and as a result they are breaking into clinics treating the patients and destroying them.
All of that....and 10,000 cases in nearly a year.
HIV, which is ONLY spread by bodily fluid to blood contact, has 5 times that in the US medical system, which is light years better.
And yet the media/people are trying to invent some bogeyman that this is more contagious than it actually is. Saying that there is no way that it can be just bodily fluid to blood contact.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 2:01 pm to Volvagia
quote:
HIV, which is ONLY spread by bodily fluid to blood contact, has 5 times that in the US medical system, which is light years better.
I guess it is different models of infection. HIV shows not outward signs, sometimes for decades. Generally, Ebola resembles other disease processes, in just a few days, but people pick up on it once there is an outbreak. And yet, still it spreads.
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