re: BOIL has become predictable

Is that a Seeking Alpha article?? #FacePalm

IG you are better than that.

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The ratio might be a piece someone might want to incorporate in to their decision process.

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while you, russian, inkjet, and a few others might "incorporate" this little nugget, I, like most of the other OT refuges on the MT board, do not put forth anywhere near that much mental effort into our investing decisions. most of our decisions are based on whim and shite we read on message boards.

but thanks though, I hope you know how to put that info to good use

I just threw it out there.

Anyway, yes, I do spend some time on this because I rarely make small plays. So, at least to me, my plays are larger and worth spending some time on. I don't however spend time on the fantasy stock pick stuff. Or fantasy anything. Again, this hasn't been a good 12-18 months for me. I've backed off a bit to regroup and am admittedly undecided where to go. Not only on the natty gas stuff, but on my entire investment strategy, including my "safe" money. I think last year my losses were $33K. Not a big deal, but the largest annual loss I've ever taken. And it would have been significant larger but I hit a six digit winner on some silver options.

I am 100% out of commodity futures and options right now. Notwithstanding some comments on here about the relationship of interest rates and inflation on commodities, they have been extremely difficult to trade, many times doing the exact opposite of what should happen. My NG options will expire worthless 1/27. I do own some physical pm's, but that's it for now. I'm in a significant cash position, and my only trades are acquiring more CAK, NBG and every once in a while AIVI. I think copper demand presents a long term opportunity. I'm considering it. I had looked at going long oil. I'm still looking. My conservative stocks I'm not adding to as I do think things are overvalued.

I look at it as an exercise in discipline. Or at least waiting to see what exactly is happening. Because I can't even begin to venture a guess except I think I need to watch for a while. I will say this. I do have the discipline to stop and evaluate, and a lot of other active traders just keep going. I think stopping is good for me right now.

White perch? Looks like a crappie to me.

Back to LSUsethe Force. I wish he'd come back on here and let us know he's all right. No one is blaming him, and frankly I'm a bit worried. He seemed pretty down when the bottom fell out. I sincerely hope he's o.k. Throw this most recent energy debacle out, and he helped me hit some decent gains. The guy put a lot of time in to natty gas. Calling Henry Hub. Pricing models between spot and etf's.

Glad to hear he's still around. Maybe this is his way of stepping back.

Money is just money. I never really made any real money until I learned money always follows when you do the right thing. And learned money is not the most important thing in life. Only then did I start to make what I consider real money. It's nice. But not at the cost of everything else.

Good to see you back.

You'd like to think so, but this has become a crap shoot. It has not reacted predictably at all.

Usually cold weather isn't reflected until the following week when the injection report comes out. Which means the mild weather this week will be reflected next, so IMO Ugaz will she more downward movement until prolonged cold weather comes along.

Of course that's my opinion, and if you would've done the exact opposite of my opinion over the last 2 months you'd have made a lot of money.

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This next week has a few winter storms in the NE. Some are supposed to lay 1-2 ft of snow. Hopefully we'll get a play off of this for the people that are long UGAZ.

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I don't think those storms will be enough to move NG upward. I think we could see NG sub 2.70 this week as there isn't an artic blast in the near future for a good portion of the country. Just too much supply and mild winter so far. I'm on the DGAZ train so there is slight bias but JMO.

Buh Bye February.