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re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 1/26/15 at 12:32 pm to southernelite
Posted on 1/26/15 at 12:32 pm to southernelite
And down she goes. 
1
Posted on 1/26/15 at 12:38 pm to jlu03
I may get out before Thursday, because I feel like its going to be a big draw, but I also feel like this beast will not behave predictably.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 12:54 pm to southernelite
Why do you feel like a big draw is coming? Last week was pretty mild, no?
Posted on 1/26/15 at 1:01 pm to rintintin
quote:
Why do you feel like a big draw is coming? Last week was pretty mild, no?
Was about to ask the same question. I don't expect anything big and should be less than the 5 year average. I know this storm in the NE right now is making big headlines but temps really aren't that bad so I expect the following week to be a low number as well. The south will be experiencing high 60's to low 70's for the next week. DGAZ stronggggggggggg.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 1:02 pm to rintintin
Do you weather channel?
This storm is pretty legit.
This storm is pretty legit.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 1:06 pm to jlu03
30 inches of snow? That's a beast. Boston and NYC are about to essentially shut down. This storm is the real deal.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 1:09 pm to southernelite
Showing NYC with tmeps in the mid 20's, nothing out of the ordinary and 80% of the country is experiencing above average temps. Just don't see a big number this week but props to you if I'm wrong.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 1:18 pm to jlu03
isn't UGAZ an ETN based on natural gas futures? If it is, the weather this week should have no impact of the NG futures or the price of UGAZ.
Now, with that said, the weather will have an impact to investor sentiment, so if the price jumps, that's just because people think it's worth more than it really is.
Am I totaly wrong on this?
Now, with that said, the weather will have an impact to investor sentiment, so if the price jumps, that's just because people think it's worth more than it really is.
Am I totaly wrong on this?
Posted on 1/26/15 at 1:18 pm to jlu03
We'll see. I haven't calculated a decision yet. Just kind of thinking out loud. I'm not too worried, as the shorts will quickly recover, I'd imagine, but I just hate leaving money on the table. Going to see how this shakes the next few days and adjust accordingly. You make some good points.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 3:30 pm to southernelite
quote:
Do you weather channel?
This storm is pretty legit.
This storm will be reflected in next weeks draw, not this week.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 4:57 pm to rintintin
Yeah but the market trades real time. Last week's withdrawal, which will be reported this week has already been priced in (in theory).
Posted on 1/26/15 at 5:24 pm to sneakytiger
Kind of. It's trading on a lot of things, but with respect to this week's report, it is trading on the expected over/under of the projections, which are mostly around -95 to -104.
BOIL is again predicable. Predictably down. The one constant is that there is volatility around the EIA release sometimes starting Weds PM, sometimes Thursday AM, and extreme volatility until about 9:40 CST as the equity traders don't all have access to real time future's quotes, and are on a 10 minute delay. Some can see the release, like us, but the future's quotes are delayed by 10 minutes.
Between 9:00 - 9:40 Thursday is interesting viewing. Speculation, release and reaction, professional traders moving on real time futures, and last retail investors moving on 10 minute delayed futures.
I'm still out FWIW. Just watching and trying to learn.
BOIL is again predicable. Predictably down. The one constant is that there is volatility around the EIA release sometimes starting Weds PM, sometimes Thursday AM, and extreme volatility until about 9:40 CST as the equity traders don't all have access to real time future's quotes, and are on a 10 minute delay. Some can see the release, like us, but the future's quotes are delayed by 10 minutes.
Between 9:00 - 9:40 Thursday is interesting viewing. Speculation, release and reaction, professional traders moving on real time futures, and last retail investors moving on 10 minute delayed futures.
I'm still out FWIW. Just watching and trying to learn.
Posted on 1/27/15 at 12:48 pm to Iowa Golfer
March futures up almost 4%... UGAZ not even up 6%. I'm stumped again. 
Posted on 1/27/15 at 1:06 pm to Iowa Golfer
I think you will see UGAZ correlate more predicatably when OIL is above 60 per barrel.
Posted on 1/27/15 at 1:26 pm to L S Usetheforce
I need to bail on this irrational puppy today!
I got in at 3.26 on the 22nd thinking to make bank, and quick. Thought we'd see $4 mark within a week. Week's up Thursday but I sure can't figure what makes this thing tick. Certainly doesn't correlate with the FEB'15. Greedy but not stupid . . . this time.
I got in at 3.26 on the 22nd thinking to make bank, and quick. Thought we'd see $4 mark within a week. Week's up Thursday but I sure can't figure what makes this thing tick. Certainly doesn't correlate with the FEB'15. Greedy but not stupid . . . this time.
Posted on 1/27/15 at 1:26 pm to L S Usetheforce
I found the ticker for the index that the underlying ETN tracks... LINK
Seems to be more in line with UGAZ's performance
Seems to be more in line with UGAZ's performance
Posted on 1/27/15 at 1:34 pm to sneakytiger
And I'm out for now. I'm considering some strategies currently.
Posted on 1/27/15 at 4:36 pm to southernelite
It was a lot of fun for a long time. Nothing wrong with taking a break.
Posted on 1/28/15 at 8:07 am to Iowa Golfer
So, which is going up today, UGAZ or DGAZ?
Posted on 1/28/15 at 8:12 am to white perch
DGAZ
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