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Bench McElroy
Member since Nov 2009
14000 posts
| SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:19 pm)
quote:
We track what we call Correlation to Victory each week and each season at CHFF Insider. And it tells us that teams with the higher passer rating -- what we call Passer Rating Differential -- consistently win more than 80 percent of all NFL games. And they win more often as the games get bigger and more important.
Teams with a higher passer rating:
• went 209-46 (.820) in 2012
• are an incredible 47-5 (.904) since Week 15
• went 4-0 (1.000) in the wild-card round
That brings us back to the Smith-Kaepernick debate. The 49ers have continued to win: they went 6-2-1 with Smith the starter; 5-2 with Kaepernick, highlighted by a 41-34 victory at New England. Conveniently, the 24-24 tie against the Rams was the game in which Smith suffered his concussion, opening the door for Kaepernick to take over the No. 1 job.
But the team's passing efficiency has in fact taken a step backward since Smith was benched.
• Smith: 70.2 percent, 8.0 YPA, 13 TD, 5 INT, 104.1 rating
• Kaepernick: 62.4 percent, 8.3 YPA, 10 TD, 3 INT, 98.3 rating
LINK
This post was edited on 1/10 at 10:50 pm
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dgtiger3 
North Carolina St. Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
3229 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:21 pm to Bench McElroy)
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Stagg8 
Rice Fan
Houston
Member since Jan 2005
10521 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:23 pm to Bench McElroy)
So how do Kaepernick's numers compare to Smith's second year in the league? It's simple really... you play the younger guy with the ridiculously high ceiling still in his rookie contract over the 7th year guy in the final year of his contract. It doesn't hurt that Kaepernick's QBR is one of the top in the league in his 7 starts.
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retooc 
Georgia Fan
Chicago
Member since Sep 2012
1246 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:25 pm to Bench McElroy)
I think it probably will hurt them this year. Although I would be picking GB regardless of the QB for the niners.
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Sl4m 
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2012
1790 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:28 pm to retooc)
Kaepernick is a better commitment for the future, he simply has more potential, he's much more aggressive with his play.
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Tiger1242
LSU Fan
Member since Jul 2011
13946 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:30 pm to Sl4m)
quote:
Kaepernick is a better commitment for the future, he simply has more potential, he's much more aggressive with his play.
Well wtf are they doing building for the future when they have a great shot to win a Super Bowl this year?
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brg0320
LSU Fan
Greenville, NC
Member since May 2009
2676 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:32 pm to Stagg8)
I think Alex Smith is a better option at QB THIS YEAR than Colin Kaepernick. I guess if SF doesn't care about having the best guy for a chance at winning a Super Bowl this year, then they have made the correct choice.
With that being said, I don't think Alex Smith will succeed anywhere else. SF was the perfect fit for him once Harbaugh came in.
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dukke v
LSU Fan
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
113948 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/10/13 at 6:37 pm to retooc)
quote:
Although I would be picking GB regardless of the QB for the niners
I will take thye Pack with K starting. I would take the Niners if Smith was STILL starting. I think Harbaugh made a HUGE mistake.The biggest advantadge that the niners have is that the Pack CAN'T run the ball.
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Rockyn
LSU Fan
Tampa Bay
Member since Sep 2008
5548 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/10/13 at 8:23 pm to dukke v)
There is no way of knowing if it's the right decision or not. If the Niners lose Saturday under Kaepernick there's no guarantee Smith does any better. There is no point to second guessing.
All I know is in last year's NFCCG I watched the Niners offense go 1/13 on 3rd down and fall short after ample possessions to take control of the game.
So long as it's not inherently stupid (and this decision isn't) fortune often favors the bold.
This post was edited on 1/10 at 8:27 pm
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RLDSC FAN 
Southern Cal Fan
Riverside, CA
Member since Nov 2008
14012 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/10/13 at 8:27 pm to Rockyn)
It's funny to me how last year people were saying the niners will never win it all with Smith and peaked by getting to the NFC title game. Now this year we're hearing it was mistake to sit him and may cost them the SB 
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tigerpimpbot 
LA-Monroe Fan
Judicial hell hole 1
Member since Nov 2011
15504 posts
 Online
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/10/13 at 8:29 pm to Rockyn)
49ers scored 17 points last year at home in the NFC championship game.
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TT9 
Illinois Fan
Global Warming
Member since Sep 2008
45231 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/10/13 at 8:38 pm to tigerpimpbot)
They might get 17 Saturday night. Packers will roll.
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Draconian Sanctions
LSU Fan
San Francisco 49ers Fan
Member since Oct 2008
29432 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/10/13 at 8:40 pm to RLDSC FAN)
quote:
It's funny to me how last year people were saying the niners will never win it all with Smith and peaked by getting to the NFC title game. Now this year we're hearing it was mistake to sit him and may cost them the SB
Yeah it's pretty hilarious
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St Augustine 
New Orleans Saints Fan
The Pauper of the Surf
Member since Mar 2006
37081 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/10/13 at 8:45 pm to RLDSC FAN)
Yeah but It also seemed that Smith was playing even better this year. They were still just a couple of big frick ups from the SB
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Chicken 
USA Fan
Jackassistan
Member since Aug 2003
3529 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/10/13 at 10:43 pm to Bench McElroy)
Can you not paste so much of that article? 2-3 paragraphs max...thanks
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Dr RC 
Texas A&M Fan
Dallas
Member since Aug 2011
6279 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/11/13 at 1:56 am to Tiger1242)
quote:
Well wtf are they doing building for the future when they have a great shot to win a Super Bowl this year?
thats exactly how I'd feel if I was a Niners fan. I really thought Smith had taken a great step forward this year.
Not to mention the move by Harbaugh will probably cause players to hide injuries for fear of losing their jobs.
This post was edited on 1/11 at 1:58 am
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Sophandros
New Orleans Saints Fan
R'Lyeh
Member since Feb 2005
40633 posts
Online
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/11/13 at 4:50 am to Bench McElroy)
Calling Cold Hard Football Facts statistical analysis is quite a reach. I'll leave it at for now.
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tidalmouse
USA Fan
Member since Jan 2009
5882 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/11/13 at 6:18 am to Stagg8)
quote:
You play the younger guy with the ridiculously high ceiling still in his rookie contract over the 7th year guy in the final year of his contract
^^^ This.Harbaugh's no dummy.He rolling the dice a little bit.But he's getting the best of both worlds right now.His Team is winning,and his Rookie QB is getting valuable experience. 
What up Chicken. 
This post was edited on 1/11 at 6:22 am
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Willie Stroker
LSU Fan
Houston...ish
Member since Sep 2008
4326 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/11/13 at 8:08 am to Bench McElroy)
Interesting that the author of the article limited the higher passer rating comparison to only this season. He had the data to go back a few years and expand the sample size for the data to be more meaningful - but didn't.
Part of the explanation for the difference is that most teams do not have 2 quarterbacks whose passer ratings are so similar. For most teams, it's a no - brainer as to who the better quarterback is. But in San Fran, the difference is a mere 5 points. It should also raise the question - Is that 5 point difference in passer rating more important than the extra threat Kaepernick provides with his feet? He does average a yard per carry more. In the author's middle school analysis, he does not even address that.
I give the article thumbs down. He was trying too hard to make a statistical case for a viewpoint that has little to no statistical significance.
He says the team with the better passing rating usually wins. Well regardless of which San Fran QB starts, Green Bay has the better passer rating and Rodgers has a better rating than either SF QB.
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Stagg8
Rice Fan
Houston
Member since Jan 2005
10521 posts
| re: SI: Numbers show that Harbaugh will live to regret benching Smith for Kaepernick (Posted on 1/12/13 at 10:21 pm to Bench McElroy)
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