BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED | TigerDroppings.com

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lsumatt
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BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


COACHES POLL

HARRIS POLL

BCS STANDINGS

My Updated Thoughts:

1) REMATCH Bama looks to be in much better shape now with the weekend upsets, but I still think Oklahoma State could pass them with a win over OU - it would be close in my opinion. Ok State's computer score would be much better than Bama's and Oklahoma State would only need ~25% of voters to give them the nod over Bama and that doesn't seem like a hard sell when Bama didn't win their division and already lost to LSU. Losses by Va Tech and Stanford might HURT Alabama because they are stealing some anti-Bama votes from OSU right now.

I think Va Tech's computer score is too weak right now to knock out Bama. But the ACC does have 4 games left against the SEC and a clean sweep could valult Va Tech's computer ranking (not sure it would be enough). Stanford has no real shot unless they maybe squeak in the Pac12 title game - and even then not really.

2) SECCG loss It should be definite now that LSU could lose the SECCG to Georgia and finish 12-1 and easily make the NC game. I can't fathom LSU being left out. I am not even sure we need to show up.

3) 3-WAY SECW TIE?If Arky beats LSU, there will be a 3-way tie to go to the SECCG (provided Bama beats AU). What LSU needs is for Arky to finish third of 3 in the BCS so they get eliminated from the tie breaker and we would go to the SECCG. It doesn't matter if Bama finishes 1st and us 2nd, we would go because of the win over Bama.

While my bet is still on LSU squeaking in, I am more nervous now with the new computer scores. Arky really closed the gap on Alabama and I think could pass Bama in at least a couple computers. LSU would still be solidly above both in the computers, but would it be enough to overcome whatever the human polls do? I still say yes. I would think the difference in the 3 teams in the human polls are razor thin with Bama getting a slight edge because they beat Arky by 24. Then LSU has BY FAR the best resume, but Arky has the most recent win. As long as Bama has a small edge over Arky in the polls and LSU keeps it relatively close (and I mean like 10-20% of voters put LSU over Arky), LSU should be fine. So A blowout loss would be no good.

Now, bad things could happen. We want LSU's and Bama's computer score to be higher than Arky's so other games need to go our way. We would pull for:

1. Bama over AU
2. Texas over A&M
3. Clemson over SC
4. PSU over Wisconsin
5. Oregon over OSU
6. WVU over Pitt (that game never means anything to LSU)
etc.

In the end, if I were a betting man and LSU lost to Arky by less than a TD I would say 75% chance LSU, 20% Bama, 5% Arky





This post was edited on 11/20 at 9:14 pm



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PnGBlood
LSU Fan
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Member since Sep 2011
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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


We beat Arky we go to the show! No matter what happens in the ATL!

Gotta live our chances!







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Joe
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Member since Jan 2005
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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED








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drizztiger
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Member since Mar 2007
14523 posts

re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


I see the next BCS standings as...

LSU
Bama
Arky
OSU
VT

But the top 4 mean more than 5-






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Chicken
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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


I think Arkansas will be in the BCS title game if they beat LSU and Bama beats Auburn. That will move Arkansas up and they won't have to play UGA in the SECCG.





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lsumatt
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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


That should be it. Thinking about it more, I am not 100% sure Arky is above Ok State. Ok State will be #2 in the computers I think.





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SPEEDY
Lamar Fan
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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


Can't wait to see what happens after Bama loses to Auburn





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Joe
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North Jersey
Member since Jan 2005
5951 posts

re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


Matt -

If Ark beats LSU, you really can see a scenario where we still don't fall behind them in the BCS, thus still making the SECCG?



This post was edited on 11/19 at 11:22 pm


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SuperFanDan
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Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2007
449 posts

re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


What does it all mean!!!!!!



This post was edited on 11/25 at 1:21 pm


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Captain Want
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Member since Nov 2009
1460 posts

re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


Thanks Matt. I think it would be a crime if Bama got a rematch vs us since we beat them in their house but oh well. We can only control our own business and let the rest fall where they may. Nobody is beating us in the dome. Nobody.





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Tiger Phil
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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


If we are dealing in the hypothetical that LSU loses on Friday, I think today was a bad day. We needed Oregon and Oklahoma to be ranked in the top five, because voters would not have moved LSU below Arkansas if Arkansas were ranked 5th or 6th prior to the game. But with them ranked 3rd, I could easily see the rankings being Bama, Arky, LSU after Arky and Bama wins next weekend.

Are you saying that if Arky is 2 in the polls and LSU is 3, that our computer advantage would outweigh that and still put us at 2 in the BCS?







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drizztiger
Army Fan
Deal With it!
Member since Mar 2007
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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


quote:

That should be it. Thinking about it more, I am not 100% sure Arky is above Ok State. Ok State will be #2 in the computers I think.
This exactly.

Arky and OSU could switch spots.

It's still a 1/2/3/4.

The SEC shakedown means a lot. If Arky beats LSU and wins the SECCG, done, they're in. LSU goes > Alabama in a rematch (LSU/Arky) except with OSU looming. OSU beats OU then computers still will like LSU/OSU.






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tiger91
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Member since Nov 2005
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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


So, basically, I will just live with a headache for a couple more weeks???

Thanks Matt ... will you get to go to the game this time if LSU makes it?






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NDA13112
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Apr 2005
1253 posts

re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


Is Stanford still on the outside looking in even if they win out and end up winning the PAC12 championship game?


This post was edited on 11/19 at 11:25 pm


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TriumphTiger
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Snellville, GA
Member since Sep 2007
5996 posts

re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


quote:

What does it all mean!!!!!!


Time to setup the tailgate in the Gultch






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lsumatt
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Member since Feb 2005
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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


quote:

I think Arkansas will be in the BCS title game if they beat LSU and Bama beats Auburn. That will move Arkansas up and they won't have to play UGA in the SECCG.


You mean against LSU? Hmmm, I think voters could either keep Bama above them by virtue of their 24 point win. Or voters could move Arky above bama by the fact they are more deserving to take the title from LSU. The computers should still favor bama slightly.

I don't usually buy into the belief that "media hype, politicking" have a big impact on voters. But this could be a situation of who makes the best case to the voters.






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drizztiger
Army Fan
Deal With it!
Member since Mar 2007
14523 posts

re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


quote:

Are you saying that if Arky is 2 in the polls and LSU is 3, that our computer advantage would outweigh that and still put us at 2 in the BCS?
I would say yes.






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lsumatt
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
12431 posts
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re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


quote:

If Ark beats LSU, you really can see a scenario where we still don't fall behind them in the BCS, thus still making the SECCG?


ABSOLUTELY






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BlazinPurple
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2010
142 posts

re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


OSU is loved by the computers. I fear thier human vote just took a major hit though. Matt, how badly if at all do you believe the human vote will be opposed to a re-match? That, I believe, will be the determining factor. If voters are split between bama and OSU, the cowboys computer score should vault them. Logical assumption?





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SuperRemo
LSU Fan
UK
Member since Feb 2011
2423 posts

re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED


the winner of lsu-ark goes to title game
its actually the real game of the century rather than what happened in tuscaloosa






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