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Message
re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:36 pm to Tiger Phil
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:36 pm to Tiger Phil
quote:
2) It should be definite now that LSU could lose the SECCG to Georgia and finish 12-1 and easily make the NC game
quote:
I think Arkansas will be in the BCS title game if they beat LSU and Bama beats Auburn. That will move Arkansas up and they won't have to play UGA in the SECCG.
quote:
If we are dealing in the hypothetical that LSU loses on Friday, I think today was a bad day. We needed Oregon and Oklahoma to be ranked in the top five, because voters would not have moved LSU below Arkansas if Arkansas were ranked 5th or 6th prior to the game. But with them ranked 3rd, I could easily see the rankings being Bama, Arky, LSU after Arky and Bama wins next weekend.
These are the three most important and correct statements in this thread IMO.
Beat Arky and we're all good. Lose, and we likely get left out and Bama Arkansas is the rematch we will see.
1
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:37 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Bama looks to be in good shape now for a rematch
I'm willing to wager that there will be no Alabama-LSU rematch if there is another one-loss BCS conference champion available.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:38 pm to Tiger Voodoo
quote:
Lose, and we likely get left out and Bama Arkansas is the rematch we will see.
No. I don't understand where some people are getting that from
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:39 pm to drizztiger
The one-loss teams left, listed with last week's BCS ranking:
2 Oklahoma State 10-1
3 Alabama 10-1
6 Arkansas 10-1
8 Virginia Tech 10-1
9 Stanford 10-1
10 Boise State 9-1
11 Houston 11-0
2 Oklahoma State 10-1
3 Alabama 10-1
6 Arkansas 10-1
8 Virginia Tech 10-1
9 Stanford 10-1
10 Boise State 9-1
11 Houston 11-0
This post was edited on 11/19/11 at 11:40 pm
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:39 pm to WikiTiger
quote:
I'm willing to wager that there will be no Alabama-LSU rematch if there is another one-loss BCS conference champion available.
MAYBE OSU.
That is the only possible one.
VT is going no where near that BCS game
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:39 pm to lsumatt
Here's how I have the rankings sort of looking in 3 of the computers tomorrow:
Likely Colley Matrix top 6:
1. LSU(11-0).............0.98148
2. Oklahoma St(10-1).....0.95492
3. Alabama(9-1)..........0.90894
4. Oklahoma(8-2).........0.87392
5. Kansas St(9-2)........0.85923
6. Arkansas(10-1)........0.84760
Likely Billingsley top 6:
1. LSU (11-0)............353.0
2. Oklahoma St(10-1).....325.0
3. Alabama (10-1)........309.7
4. Stanford (10-1).......304.0
5. Oregon (9-2)..........300.0
6. Arkansas (10-1).......296.0
Top in Sagarin rankings likely goes:
1. LSU
2. Oklahoma State
3. Alabama
4/5. Arkansas/Kansas State (close)
6. Oregon/Baylor
Peter Wolfe likely looks like:
1. LSU
2. OSU
3. Bama
4. Arky
5. KSU
6. Oregon
Likely Colley Matrix top 6:
1. LSU(11-0).............0.98148
2. Oklahoma St(10-1).....0.95492
3. Alabama(9-1)..........0.90894
4. Oklahoma(8-2).........0.87392
5. Kansas St(9-2)........0.85923
6. Arkansas(10-1)........0.84760
Likely Billingsley top 6:
1. LSU (11-0)............353.0
2. Oklahoma St(10-1).....325.0
3. Alabama (10-1)........309.7
4. Stanford (10-1).......304.0
5. Oregon (9-2)..........300.0
6. Arkansas (10-1).......296.0
Top in Sagarin rankings likely goes:
1. LSU
2. Oklahoma State
3. Alabama
4/5. Arkansas/Kansas State (close)
6. Oregon/Baylor
Peter Wolfe likely looks like:
1. LSU
2. OSU
3. Bama
4. Arky
5. KSU
6. Oregon
This post was edited on 11/19/11 at 11:43 pm
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:40 pm to DA
It's pretty much impossible for Arky to make it to Atlanta without Bama losing to Auburn.
It's impossible for the order to end up Arky-LSU-Bama at this point
It's impossible for the order to end up Arky-LSU-Bama at this point
This post was edited on 11/19/11 at 11:42 pm
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:41 pm to Chicken
quote:
there could be some that rank Arkansas No. 1...they had to go on the road for both their big games...LSU and Bama had the luxury of playing at least one at home (Bama had two).
Oh I don't Arky gets 1st place votes, but so might LSU. Let me write this another way. I am going to be more dramatic now:
1. Bama (60% 1st place votes, 30% 2nd place, 10% 3rd place)
2. Arkansas (25% 1st place, 40%% 2nd place, 35% 3rd place)
3. LSU (15% 1st place, 30% 2nd place, 55% 3rd place)
LSU gets in EASILY.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:41 pm to Geaux2002
It's clear to me. LSU loses to Arkansas and we are done and out. Cotton Bowl bound.
LSU will have to play 3 semifinal games to get to the NC Game. Bama will have played one, and lost. Fair? Absolutely not.
LSU will have to play 3 semifinal games to get to the NC Game. Bama will have played one, and lost. Fair? Absolutely not.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:42 pm to TulaneTigerFan
quote:
Lose, and we likely get left out and Bama Arkansas is the rematch we will see.
No. I don't understand where some people are getting that from
It's pretty simple actually. #1 LSU #2 Bama #3 Arkansas
If we lose next week, what do you think the rankings will look like?
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:43 pm to Tiger Voodoo
Matt has already posted detail on why that isn't likely to happen. Read his posts on this page of the thread
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:44 pm to Geaux2002
Geaux -
Yeah, I think you are right. I think OSU is #3 in the BCS and Arky is #4 unless OSU falls behind Stanford and Va Tech (and they might).
Yeah, I think you are right. I think OSU is #3 in the BCS and Arky is #4 unless OSU falls behind Stanford and Va Tech (and they might).
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:44 pm to Tiger Voodoo
quote:
It's pretty simple actually. #1 LSU #2 Bama #3 Arkansas
If we lose next week, what do you think the rankings will look like?
BAMA
LSU
Ark
Ark moves to 2 in human polls but LSU's computer score keeps them 2 in BCS.
That's the gist of what Matt is saying.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:44 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
It's impossible for the order to end up Arky-LSU-Bama at this point
Yea, I can't see this happening either. I just can't see Arky jumping Bama when Bama beat them by 24, and the two teams would have the same record.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:44 pm to lsumatt
Is it possible LSU gets a perfect BCS ranking tomorrow? Is that even possible? They're already unanimous #1 in both polls, and should be #1 in the computers.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:45 pm to DA
quote:
What if Arky makes it to Atlanta, but gets beat by Georgia?
Arkansas has 0% chance to make it to ATL unless Auburn beats Bama. Fact.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:46 pm to purplepylon
quote:
It's clear to me. LSU loses to Arkansas and we are done and out.
Well it isn't very clear to you because I am about 99% sure you are wrong. What math did you use to come to that conclusion?
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:46 pm to Chicken
quote:
I think there is a real chance that LSU falls behind Arkansas in the BCS polls if LSU loses to Arkansas.
Chicken, why are you being such a negaTiger?!
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:47 pm to bigjuice56
quote:
Is it possible LSU gets a perfect BCS ranking tomorrow? Is that even possible? They're already unanimous #1 in both polls, and should be #1 in the computers.
It is possible and they will be #1 in all polls; human and computer
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:47 pm to Volt
The BCS people are missing out on even more money. They should sell a home software program where people like us can run scenarios all day long.
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