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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 8/27/15 at 3:19 pm to TDsngumbo
it's important to note that the ECMWF keeps the storm really weak. low cat 1 max.. probably TS at time of impact with miami. so even with that huge spread on the ensemble it just doesn't strengthen much before it gets past Cuba
Posted on 8/27/15 at 3:21 pm to Chad504boy
That's not Isaac.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 3:23 pm to TDsngumbo
Can you guys stop with the Issac stuff? For some dumb reason, I look at this thread for up to date storm info. 
Posted on 8/27/15 at 3:26 pm to roadGator
quote:
Can you guys stop with the Issac stuff? For some dumb reason, I look at this thread for up to date storm info.
With the exception of the brief moment where Chad fooled me with the Isaac stuff (I jumped the gun with it), I update this thread with information from expert sources so you can rest assured that the info I post here is indeed correct information from the experts.
This post was edited on 8/27/15 at 3:27 pm
Posted on 8/27/15 at 3:27 pm to roadGator
Posted on 8/27/15 at 3:29 pm to bankdawg
last couple of hours it has started moving NNW with the sheer calming down a bit
Posted on 8/27/15 at 3:32 pm to bankdawg
quote:
last couple of hours it has started moving NNW with the sheer calming down a bit
I'm not so sure we can ascertain motion from that. It looks like there might be a northerly turn.. but these things can wobble.
The main thing that's going on here is the two circulations are trying to consolidate which means (at least) one of them is going to have to deviate from regular storm motion to get on top of/underneath the other. This could result in the storm finally taking its northerly turn.. but I doubt the current storm motion is due N or NNW
another recon aircraft is on its way right now.. should be there to get a vortex fix in the next couple hours so we'll know for sure.
This post was edited on 8/27/15 at 3:35 pm
Posted on 8/27/15 at 3:36 pm to baytiger
i remember when isaac made a hard north western turn for a while... it went back westerly...
Posted on 8/27/15 at 3:37 pm to Chad504boy
The storm is going up the east coast. Book it.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 3:44 pm to Pectus
The 4:00 CST advisory still has the center going ever so slightly to the east of the Florida Atlantic coastline. She's also moving WNW now.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 3:49 pm to baytiger
quote:
I'm not so sure we can ascertain motion from that. It looks like there might be a northerly turn.. but these things can wobble.
Yeah, short term motion is tricky with the canopy expanding this afternoon, can't really trust satellite images. Recon will be interesting and maybe the data can clear things up.
As far as track, even if this does make the Gulf there doesn't appear to be many options for moving too far west.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 3:49 pm to baytiger
good post. do you think she would survive a direct hit on Hispaniola?
Posted on 8/27/15 at 3:55 pm to TDsngumbo
Is my vacation in Punta Cana starting Friday still FUUKKEDD?
Posted on 8/27/15 at 3:55 pm to bankdawg
quote:
do you think she would survive a direct hit on Hispaniola?
Punta Cana is gonna get fricked up.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 3:59 pm to Pectus
I live and work in Jacksonville and my company sent out a company email saying stay tuned for Erika...
Posted on 8/27/15 at 4:13 pm to TDsngumbo
notice the DR and cuba dodge...
Posted on 8/27/15 at 4:14 pm to TDsngumbo
Which side has the worst wind? East?
Posted on 8/27/15 at 4:16 pm to roadGator
Northeast quadrant is usually the worst
Posted on 8/27/15 at 4:19 pm to CuseTiger
If that boogar moves into the FL coast but a handful of miles, it could side stitch the whole state. After 10 years, there will be a ton of debris........
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