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1
Posted on 8/27/15 at 10:43 am to CuseTiger
quote:
Can we start callin her Urika if she gets out of control?
Posted on 8/27/15 at 11:05 am to TDsngumbo
There's never been a better time to use this pic:
Posted on 8/27/15 at 11:30 am to CaptainsWafer
I've been waiting for someone to bring up that picture in this thread. I would have done it but didn't want to derail the thread
Posted on 8/27/15 at 11:33 am to TDsngumbo
how many chillren is she a parent of?
Posted on 8/27/15 at 11:34 am to WinnPtiger
The real question with tehis new southern/western move is will there be waves in Orange Beach for Labor Day weekend?
Posted on 8/27/15 at 11:36 am to fatboydave
Nah we won't need to worry about Erika. No way she makes it here in time for Labor Day. Our time to be hit is always the week before or of Labor Day
Posted on 8/27/15 at 11:38 am to TDsngumbo
really need to quit planning my beach vacation on Labor Day Posted on 8/27/15 at 12:15 pm to TDsngumbo
It definitely looks to me like it may be trying to reform its center either right near the butterfly islands (sorry, I don't know which islands they are, I just call them the butterfly islands because they look like a butterfly on the map ) or to the south of there. It could just be some midlevel circulation that I'm seeing though. It's under some impressive convection, though, so if it can reform in one of those areas, we may see some strengthening.
) or to the south of there. It could just be some midlevel circulation that I'm seeing though. It's under some impressive convection, though, so if it can reform in one of those areas, we may see some strengthening. 
Posted on 8/27/15 at 12:20 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
It definitely looks to me like it may be trying to reform its center either right near the butterfly islands (sorry, I don't know which islands they are, I just call them the butterfly islands because they look like a butterfly on the map ) or to the south of there.
The low level circulation is pretty well defined to the west of there. The upper level circulation has been pretty plainly decoupled for a while... but this burst of daytime convection (first one in about 3 days..) could signal that the upper level circulation is trying to catch up with the low level one.
ETA: or it could kill off the low level one.
it's pretty wild.. I don't recall ever seeing a storm that was so tilted that both the upper level and the low level circulations were this clearly visible
This post was edited on 8/27/15 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 8/27/15 at 12:26 pm to baytiger
This thing is going to turn out to sea isn't it?
I really would have like to have at least gotten a little rain from this storm.
I really would have like to have at least gotten a little rain from this storm.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 12:26 pm to baytiger
So can we throw out it hooking into the Atlantic? I really have not been paying attention.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 12:31 pm to burgeman
quote:
So can we throw out it hooking into the Atlantic?
no, but honestly the picture has just become murkier today.. not really any clearer. especially with the westward motion for the past 8 hours or so that none of the models were predicting.
we don't even know if it will be a thing by the time it has the opportunity to hook out into the Atlantic.
right now it sure looks like Florida is under the gun but 4-5 day confidence is pretty low
Posted on 8/27/15 at 12:32 pm to burgeman
Looks like florida or further west will at least get wet. Whether it's a hurricane, TS, TD or a rainy day with wind, I'll leave the experts to figure that out.
It will have to take a pretty quick NNW turn and then hook E to be completely out to sea.
It will have to take a pretty quick NNW turn and then hook E to be completely out to sea.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 1:53 pm to TDsngumbo
It always makes me chuckle when a storm isn't heading in the direction the projected path shows. This thing is chugging west but for the last 24 hours the projected path shows it heading northwest.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 1:55 pm to The Boat
quote:
It always makes me chuckle when a storm isn't heading in the direction the projected path shows. This thing is chugging west but for the last 24 hours the projected path shows it heading northwest.
its like when you about to make a right at a side street, sometimes you veer out left so you don't hit the curb. erika just don't wanna hit the curb man.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 1:57 pm to The Boat
quote:
It always makes me chuckle when a storm isn't heading in the direction the projected path shows. This thing is chugging west but for the last 24 hours the projected path shows it heading northwest.
They don't know shite!
Posted on 8/27/15 at 1:58 pm to TDsngumbo
Leeward
Posted on 8/27/15 at 2:00 pm to High C
Here's the updated GFS model ensembles:
Here's the official updated models:
Here's the official updated models:
This post was edited on 8/27/15 at 2:02 pm
Posted on 8/27/15 at 2:16 pm to TDsngumbo
Models continue to be all over the place. That bottom map shows 6 tracks towards the west side of florida or the gulf.
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