re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

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that shall not be named

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I don't understand this at all. It was named Katrina. Katrina was its classified name. Why are you afraid to say or type Katrina?

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More from Larry Cosgrove:

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Wait, wrong guy, Larry is a nutcase.

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That's exactly what it is. Some of the internet "meterologists" cream their pants about these scenarios.

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I know because I used to be one. We used to have a weekly TV program in elementary school and one year they let me do a segment tracking actual storms on a large map each week. After a few weeks I decided to throw in my own "forecast" and suggested a storm was going to come right up Vermillion Bay. The next day my segment was cancelled because kids were freaking out and asking their parents and shite.

I've got no issue with an expert discussing other possibilities, but I'm going to need a little more scientific reasoning than a "suspicion" or the way you "feel".

What does this all mean for my neighborhood?

He gave his reasoning. He said because of the high ridge. He might be thinking the models are not factoring that enough in their forecasts when he's kinda right with the way they handle ridges and forecasts very far out...

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I don't understand this at all. It was named Katrina. Katrina was its classified name. Why are you afraid to say or type Katrina?

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Because it was not Katrina

I don't think that's being irresponsible letting people know a worst case scenario. He never said it's going to happen like that as fact it's just a POSSIBLE scenario that MIGHT happen the models don't seem to be showing. He's informing you trying to make you more prepared in case it does happen.

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He gave his reasoning. He said because of the high ridge. He might be thinking the models are not factoring that enough in their forecasts when he's kinda right with the way they handle ridges and forecasts very far out...

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But the ridge itself is part of the forecast. There isn't some guaranteed ridge and location that he knows and the models don't. In essence, he is saying the ridge that only exists in the models at this point is not being handled properly by the models.

You know what you will never see? You'll never see someone on a weather forum post that they think the ridge will be weaker than the models suggest and the storm will move northward much earlier in the forecast period, causing absolutely no concerns in the recently flooded area of LA. That kind of prediction doesn't get the juices flowing, but it is just as likely as his hunch.

But you can come up with a million different possible scenarios from this running into Mexico to turning out to sea and never touching land. People who do not follow models will think what he is saying is likely to happen, even if he clearly says it is just a possibility. They know it is coming from a meteorologist so they take it as gospel.