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Started By
Message
re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/30/16 at 6:57 am to baytiger
Posted on 8/30/16 at 6:57 am to baytiger
quote:
finally some convection flaring up on the north side. Could get some significant development today.
This is good news for LA and the western side of the gulf, correct? I gatherered that the longer it went undeveloped and sort of trudging along, the further West it pushed.
1
Posted on 8/30/16 at 6:59 am to Lou Pai
quote:
This is good news for LA and the western side of the gulf, correct? I gatherered that the longer it went undeveloped and sort of trudging along, the further West it pushed.
There is nothing at all to suggest that it has any chance of affecting Louisiana or pushing west. Stop reading into morons wishcasting in this thread. They literally have no clue.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 7:05 am to Sheep
quote:
Well, well, well... everybody look at the brain on this guy over here.
Yeah, CFDog is trying to be "that guy". Must be trying to earn that blue ribbon by posting useless stuff to this thread to pretend he knows some shite.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 7:07 am to tLSU
quote:
here is nothing at all to suggest that it has any chance of affecting Louisiana or pushing west.
It's moving West now.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 7:13 am to LakeViewLSU
quote:
It's moving West now.
As it's supposed to in the model tracks, none of which are even tracking it as far west as Pensacola, much less Louisiana. Your belief that it's going to just plow into Louisiana is based on nothing more than "DERP".
If you want to Wishcast, i'd suggest Masters' blog on wUnderground.
This post was edited on 8/30/16 at 7:14 am
Posted on 8/30/16 at 7:21 am to LakeViewLSU
quote:
It's moving West now.
it's tough to tell with all the convection popping up around the center, but according to the recon fixes it's been moving north-northwesterly for the past several hours. Recon's not in there anymore though.. they'll be flying back in about 5 hours.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 7:26 am to tLSU
quote:
There is nothing at all to suggest that it has any chance of affecting Louisiana
While there is no certainty that LA will get a pass, the likelihood of any direct impact is incredibly small at this point. There is quite a bit of consensus in the models at this point, and even the easternmost parts of LA are still a long way off of the NHC cone and usual margin of error.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 7:34 am to CFDoc
quote:I came here to post that word for word.....
It's shouldnt be too surprising that a suite of models that ignore viscous dissipation, turbulent diffusion, internal heat release, and are derived from perturbation theory are all failing on a system that is relatively low Reynolds number, not dominated by convective forces (currently), more than likely exhibiting significant amounts of turbulent energy at diffusive scales, and spending most of its time unperturbed too far from reference quantities (i.e. pressure did not get very low for most of the development thus far).
Posted on 8/30/16 at 7:43 am to LSURussian
quote:
came here to post that word for word.....
Had to bust out the Roget's...
Posted on 8/30/16 at 7:44 am to LSURussian
well done. 
Posted on 8/30/16 at 7:57 am to glassman
quote:
Roget's
For sure.
quote:
diffusive scales
Yea....I got nothing.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 8:00 am to G Vice
quote:
diffusive scales
They give a weight ten pounds less!! Women love them.Posted on 8/30/16 at 8:12 am to LSURussian
quote:
It's shouldnt be too surprising that a suite of models that ignore viscous dissipation, turbulent diffusion, internal heat release, and are derived from perturbation theory are all failing on a system that is relatively low Reynolds number, not dominated by convective forces (currently), more than likely exhibiting significant amounts of turbulent energy at diffusive scales, and spending most of its time unperturbed too far from reference quantities (i.e. pressure did not get very low for most of the development thus far).
Reminds me of Rockwell's Retro Encabulator
LINK
Posted on 8/30/16 at 8:19 am to tLSU
quote:
Your belief that it's going to just plow into Louisiana is based on nothing more than "DERP". If you want to Wishcast, i'd suggest Masters' blog on wUnderground.
Who are you talking to? I've never said anything about it hitting Louisiana. I've barely been in this thread.
This post was edited on 8/30/16 at 8:20 am
Posted on 8/30/16 at 8:28 am to LakeViewLSU
quote:
quote:
here is nothing at all to suggest that it has any chance of affecting Louisiana or pushing west.
It's moving West now.
As of now, there really isn't anything to suggest that the trough digging into the NE won't be strong enough to capture this system. There was a bit of a westward expansion on the 00z Euro EPS but those few members that take the more western track are weak and barely clip the mouth of the River.
There is an obvious west trend but NCH seems confident in the recurve:
Posted on 8/30/16 at 8:38 am to rds dc
quote:
It's shouldnt be too surprising that a suite of models that ignore viscous dissipation, turbulent diffusion, internal heat release, and are derived from perturbation theory are all failing on a system that is relatively low Reynolds number, not dominated by convective forces (currently), more than likely exhibiting significant amounts of turbulent energy at diffusive scales, and spending most of its time unperturbed too far from reference quantities (i.e. pressure did not get very low for most of the development thus far).
I've been using "hooked on phonics" since 7:30. I'm almost finished reading it but I have no idea what it means.
Posted on 8/30/16 at 8:52 am to rds dc
My sources have this closer to Bama border.
And no I can't reveal Rob
And no I can't reveal Rob
Posted on 8/30/16 at 8:56 am to rds dc
Minimal surge expected for coastal Louisiana at this time:
50% Chance of Storm Surge Exceedance
50% Chance of Storm Surge Exceedance
This post was edited on 8/30/16 at 9:01 am
Posted on 8/30/16 at 8:57 am to Rakim
quote:
And no I can't reveal Rob
Perillo??
Posted on 8/30/16 at 9:04 am to CFDoc
quote:
I used the wrong word. Instead of 'apparent' I should have said 'fairly obvious.'
That doesn't change anything I said.
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