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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

Posted on 8/30/16 at 5:00 am to
Posted by TheriotAF
Member since Mar 2013
697 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 5:00 am to
I hate how this thing keeps waggling south every once in a while.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 5:06 am to
quote:

finally some convection flaring up on the north side. Could get some significant development today.



Still no north turn. It's consistently been on the south side of every forecast point since it's been a TD.
This post was edited on 8/30/16 at 5:07 am
Posted by BRgetthenet
Member since Oct 2011
117700 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 5:07 am to
Great
Posted by diat150
Louisiana
Member since Jun 2005
43548 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 5:10 am to
Is it starting to form an eye now?
Posted by otowntiger
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
15650 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 5:11 am to
quote:

vection flaring up on the north side. Could get some significant development today.
. Do you really think so?? This system has been the longest drawn out nothing of a storm that I have ever watched. my guess is the convection will die down again and remain very disorganized.
Posted by BRgetthenet
Member since Oct 2011
117700 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 5:11 am to
Too early to know. These models are just a tool. Nobody knows where it's going either. Anybody that says they do is kidding themselves. Could go anywhere from Miami to Corpus Christi.
Posted by Rakim
Member since Nov 2015
9954 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 5:35 am to
Watch it, I wouldn't just call it a big nothing while it still has a chance for rapid development. It hits 90 W and all bets are off
This post was edited on 8/30/16 at 5:37 am
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 5:45 am to
quote:

Watch it, I wouldn't just call it a big nothing while it still has a chance for rapid development. It hits 90 W and all bets are off



lol
Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 5:53 am to
quote:

Do you really think so??


Yeah, it should become a TS today
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 6:09 am to
Posted by Pectus
Internet
Member since Apr 2010
67302 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 6:22 am to
IS this the "model-breaker"?
Posted by Janky
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
35957 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 6:23 am to
What are we looking at here?
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 6:24 am to
quote:

What are we looking at here?



A storm that appears to be intensifying on Satellite, but recon tells a different story so far.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36706 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 6:24 am to
What's significant about 90 west??
Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 6:25 am to
oh fun, looks like GOES East satellite is going down. Nice timing
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36706 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 6:31 am to
Not to mention that FEMA fired GOSHEP from handling its business last week. It hasn't been made public yet


What the heck is this??
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
101390 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 6:32 am to
quote:

What's significant about 90 west??



West of New Orleans.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 6:32 am to
quote:

What the heck is this??



Something that isn't relevant to this thread.
Posted by Sheep
Neither here nor there
Member since Jun 2007
19495 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 6:33 am to
quote:

It's shouldnt be too surprising that a suite of models that ignore viscous dissipation, turbulent diffusion, internal heat release, and are derived from perturbation theory are all failing on a system that is relatively low Reynolds number, not dominated by convective forces (currently), more than likely exhibiting significant amounts of turbulent energy at diffusive scales, and spending most of its time unperturbed too far from reference quantities (i.e. pressure did not get very low for most of the development thus far).


Well, well, well... everybody look at the brain on this guy over here.

Where'd you learn all them collegey words, baw?
Posted by CFDoc
Member since Jan 2013
2094 posts
Posted on 8/30/16 at 6:40 am to
quote:

Where'd you learn all them collegey words, baw?



They were written on the washing machine instructions tag on the inside of your mother's panties.
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