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re: Major Hurricane! Joaquin! Finally Moving Northward and OTS
Posted on 10/1/15 at 9:30 pm to metallica81788
Posted on 10/1/15 at 9:30 pm to metallica81788
Expect the NHC to shift the track to the right closer to the consensus among the models.
There are only a couple of models that have it hitting the US.
There are only a couple of models that have it hitting the US.
2
Posted on 10/1/15 at 9:45 pm to CWilken21
Peej nailed the forecast on this storm .. 
Funny how the hurricane thread regular wishcasters disappear as soon as Louisiana is off the table ..
Funny how the hurricane thread regular wishcasters disappear as soon as Louisiana is off the table ..
Posted on 10/1/15 at 11:06 pm to TigahRag
And the US Models continue to get their butts handed to them by the European
Posted on 10/1/15 at 11:11 pm to CWilken21
Well that certainly settles it... 00z GFS is back W of the NHC track... ¯\_(?)_/¯
Maybe the 18z GEFS was picking up something:
18z
vs.
12z
Maybe the 18z GEFS was picking up something:
18z
vs.
12z
Posted on 10/1/15 at 11:25 pm to beebefootballfan
quote:
And the US Models continue to get their butts handed to them by the European
The Euro has been rock solid with this system the past few days for sure but it hasn't been without its own issues in the tropics this season. The big problem here is that this is kind of a razors edge setup and small changes here and there can result in wildly different results. Euro nailed the slower and more SW track over the past couple of days and that made a huge difference down the road.
It appears that the superior vertical resolution and better data assimilation scheme of the Euro has made a big difference in this setup. The GFS shifted big towards the Euro last night at 00z with the huge special data dump but the extra data didn't even phase the Euro. It is an issue that won't go away until next generation of NOAA supercomputers come online. The NOAA modeling folks are well aware of the current shortcomings are doing everything they can with what we have. Even with the current limitations there is some really cool stuff cranking the testbed environments.
Posted on 10/1/15 at 11:28 pm to rds dc
such a relief...
the yellow line would destroy NC. People don't realize how saturated NC is already.
After high tides and wet weekend, officials prepare for more - Lumina News
This post was edited on 10/1/15 at 11:36 pm
Posted on 10/2/15 at 6:37 am to cajunangelle
the track continues to shift to the east. There are only about 2 models that show US landfall, but most of the models are starting to have it go out to sea and effect no-one except maybe Bermuda.
Keep an eye on it though, but it is likely that this storm doesn't make US landfall.
Keep an eye on it though, but it is likely that this storm doesn't make US landfall.
Posted on 10/2/15 at 6:40 am to catholictigerfan
Posted on 10/3/15 at 10:55 am to catholictigerfan
it just took another jog to the northeast while rapidly intensifying.
nhc put out a special advisory increasing the winds to 135kt... edge of cat 5.
bermuda is the new punta cana
nhc put out a special advisory increasing the winds to 135kt... edge of cat 5.
bermuda is the new punta cana
Posted on 10/3/15 at 11:22 am to baytiger
quote:
bermuda is the new punta cana
Posted on 10/3/15 at 12:08 pm to Jim Rockford
Heard that South Carolina was really taking on a significant amount of damage including USC which has experienced massive flooding damage.
Posted on 10/3/15 at 12:49 pm to MrLSU
quote:
Heard that South Carolina was really taking on a significant amount of damage including USC which has experienced massive flooding damage.
Correct... But it has nothing to do with the Hurricane... Whats going on there is the FRONT that is pushing the Hurricane to the East...... But instead of going east with the hurricane its just kinda sitting there dumping huge amounts of rain in the same area... Very sad that they prepared for a major hurricane and its getting almost as bad by just a cold front.............
Posted on 10/3/15 at 12:57 pm to dukke v
It has something to do with Joaquin.
That low on the front by the SC coast is tapping the moisture Joaquin is drawing in. It's likely enhancing Joaquin's outflow and dumping all the water on SC/NC.
That low on the front by the SC coast is tapping the moisture Joaquin is drawing in. It's likely enhancing Joaquin's outflow and dumping all the water on SC/NC.
Posted on 10/3/15 at 5:35 pm to dukke v
quote:
Heard that South Carolina was really taking on a significant amount of damage including USC which has experienced massive flooding damage.
Correct... But it has nothing to do with the Hurricane... Whats going on there is the FRONT that is pushing the Hurricane to the East...... But instead of going east with the hurricane its just kinda sitting there dumping huge amounts of rain in the same area... Very sad that they prepared for a major hurricane and its getting almost as bad by just a cold front.............
The rain in the Carolinas was some kind of a cold front, unrelated to WAA KEEN, yet fed by him. People woke up to 42 degrees inland NC!
BTW: you are being paged @ the O50.
This post was edited on 10/3/15 at 5:46 pm
Posted on 10/3/15 at 5:38 pm to BowlJackson
Posted on 10/3/15 at 9:40 pm to baytiger
quote:
it just took another jog to the northeast while rapidly intensifying.
nhc put out a special advisory increasing the winds to 135kt... edge of cat 5.
Excellent outflow channels earlier today. I think Joaquin will go down as the strongest El Nino hurricane and the strongest hurricane to form from non-tropical origins. One for the record books.
Posted on 10/3/15 at 9:46 pm to Duke
Slight changes.
Posted on 10/3/15 at 9:46 pm to rds dc
Going surfing at Jupiter inlet tomorrow am. Hopefully the north swell is pumping in.
Posted on 10/4/15 at 2:45 pm to Pectus
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