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Major Hurricane! Joaquin! Finally Moving Northward and OTS
Posted on 9/29/15 at 3:21 pm
Posted on 9/29/15 at 3:21 pm
Joaquin is going to be an extremely difficult forecast and is stronger and to the left of the NHC forecast already this afternoon. Media Hype Machine engaged in 3, 2, 1
This post was edited on 10/3/15 at 9:41 pm
Posted on 9/29/15 at 3:31 pm to rds dc
Good thing it's just Joaquin. If it was River, they'd be in trouble.
Posted on 9/29/15 at 3:41 pm to rds dc
I'm going to DC at the end of the week through next week for work. Was looking forward to seeing some museums and monuments, guess I'll see my hotel bar.
Posted on 9/29/15 at 3:44 pm to rds dc
Afternoon recon came in with 990mb
This post was edited on 10/1/15 at 11:09 am
Posted on 9/29/15 at 3:46 pm to rds dc
If it hits NYC, we will never hear the end of it.
Posted on 9/29/15 at 3:54 pm to RedFoxx
quote:
I'm going to DC at the end of the week through next week for work. Was looking forward to seeing some museums and monuments, guess I'll see my hotel bar.
Call ahead and see if they have a boat
Posted on 9/29/15 at 4:03 pm to Pectus
Nor'easter's sucked when I lived in VA.
Posted on 9/29/15 at 4:04 pm to rds dc
I wish it was named Joakim instead. You could make some good Noah jokes when the flooding starts..
This post was edited on 9/29/15 at 4:12 pm
Posted on 9/29/15 at 4:37 pm to sjmabry
quote:
Nor'easter's sucked when I lived in VA.
That was one of my favorite things about living in DC! Except when we were supposed to get snow and got wind blown rain and 35 degrees...
This post was edited on 9/29/15 at 4:37 pm
Posted on 9/29/15 at 4:41 pm to rds dc
Joaquin if you can't frick 'em.
Posted on 9/29/15 at 4:41 pm to rds dc
this really throws a kink in my Clemson/Notre Dame pick...
Posted on 9/29/15 at 5:32 pm to rds dc
Pretty huge shift W with the 18z GFS bringing inline with the HWRF and a good portion of the ensembles. Still would take this with a grain of salt at this point.
This post was edited on 9/29/15 at 5:34 pm
Posted on 9/29/15 at 5:36 pm to rds dc
Dang, we're already up to the J storm?
Posted on 9/29/15 at 8:37 pm to rds dc
So where did Joaquin come from?
In the loop above you can see a swirl (ULL that cuts off) start spinning to the SW of 30N 60W and then convection starts to bubble in the region. After a period of time you can see it consolidate and then start to drift SW as Joaquin comes to life. Pretty complex tropical transition process that has been very cool to track over the last week. Then if you look back over Texas & Louisiana you can see ULL/trough spin that gave the models such fits and eventually held 99L in check.
That piece of upper level energy will eventually get caught and absorbed by the next trough dropping down
and then that eventually could "capture" Joaquin and sling shot it into the Mid-Atlantic
Then add in the high latitude blocking, the remnants of Ida, and your always present uncertainty and a very complex setup is unfolding. The NHC is basically just saying, "Umm, yeah, it will kind of go that way at some point..."
In the loop above you can see a swirl (ULL that cuts off) start spinning to the SW of 30N 60W and then convection starts to bubble in the region. After a period of time you can see it consolidate and then start to drift SW as Joaquin comes to life. Pretty complex tropical transition process that has been very cool to track over the last week. Then if you look back over Texas & Louisiana you can see ULL/trough spin that gave the models such fits and eventually held 99L in check.
That piece of upper level energy will eventually get caught and absorbed by the next trough dropping down
and then that eventually could "capture" Joaquin and sling shot it into the Mid-Atlantic
Then add in the high latitude blocking, the remnants of Ida, and your always present uncertainty and a very complex setup is unfolding. The NHC is basically just saying, "Umm, yeah, it will kind of go that way at some point..."
This post was edited on 9/29/15 at 8:44 pm
Posted on 9/29/15 at 8:51 pm to rds dc
pretty amazing how quick this stuff can spin up. I've been on a long weekend and there wasn't a word about this outside of models we've been pretty much ignoring for the tropics this year. Now every single model seems to have us (the northeast) under the gun
Posted on 9/29/15 at 9:02 pm to baytiger
quote:
pretty amazing how quick this stuff can spin up.
Yea, I would have to guess that the odds are astronomical of this happening. It festered for over a week before completing tropical transition and then it drifts into the only sweet spot in the whole Atlantic basin.
ETA: If, and a huge if, this were to landfall as a major then it would be the first recorded US landfalling major during an El Nino after September 30th.
This post was edited on 9/29/15 at 9:05 pm
Posted on 9/29/15 at 9:05 pm to rds dc
Thanks for the post. Did you get permission from the weather board small dicks? They need to approve tropical discussions .
Posted on 9/30/15 at 5:16 am to rds dc
quote:
Tropical Storm Joaquin is on the verge of becoming a hurricane, and hurricane watches and warnings have been issued for the Bahamas while we nervously eye its potential to affect the U.S. East Coast.
Tropical Storm Joaquin continues to intensify slowly, as wind shear -- harmful to the intensification of tropical cyclones -- lessens, and it appears likely to become a hurricane just east of the Bahamas before a complicated atmospheric pattern makes its future track – including any potential landfall on the U.S. East Coast – extremely difficult to forecast.
LINK
Posted on 9/30/15 at 7:03 am to rds dc
I'm going to Nassau on Saturday... You think im good?
Posted on 9/30/15 at 7:10 am to cajuntiger07
I'd think Saturday at Nassau will be fine. However, in northern Virginia I'm fricked.
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