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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - July 30, 2020 Update: 114,481 cases - 3,811 deaths - 1,317,390 tested
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:19 pm to LSU5508
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:19 pm to LSU5508
quote:
I cant get onboard with this mindset. Numbers are gonna jump whenever we go from two to three. It does not matter if it's now or 6 months from now.
Which is why we are not going to go to 3 until there is a therapeutic or vaccine.
0
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:23 pm to Salmon
quote:
I think we will go to Phase 3 after Labor Day
the numbers are about to plummet
his criteria has always been 2 weeks of declining numbers, if we have 5 weeks of decline, we will move to Phase 3
I think he has to. I know people thinks he is a East or West Coast Democrat. But he isn't. He sees the economic numbers. We cannot stay in Phase 2.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:25 pm to lsu13lsu
If we go to phase three before labor day and things go up again people will have a shite fit about schools going in person again. I would a modified phase 2 until two weeks after labor day.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:25 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Salmon, you’re a smart dude and I have a question
I have been posting the hospital data lately and believed it to be good news because it was falling in key states
But what if the number of hospitalized patients is falling only because deaths are surging at the hospitals and freeing up beds?
It’s theoretically possible for the number of new admittances to a hospital to increase while the number of hospitalized falls, if deaths caused so many open beds.
Is that what is happening here?
Day 1: 30 new admits, 20 deaths. +10 new hospitalizations
Day 2: 40 new admits, 35 deaths. +5 new hospitalizations
Day 3: 50 new admits, 55 deaths. -5 hospitalizations
This trend looks good on surface, but actually very bad
Is that what is happening here?
Not that deaths are a good thing, but those beds are not being replaced. That is the good thing. When we were being hit really hard the bed count went up including deaths.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:26 pm to Salmon
quote:
moved to Phase 2 with a >5% positivity rate
That's because the Phase 2 requirement was to be under 10%. And when he made the announcement, he talked about the historical number being around 7%
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:33 pm to Dizz
quote:
If we go to phase three before labor day and things go up again people will have a shite fit about schools going in person again.
What do you mean here?
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:41 pm to lsu13lsu
A lot of school districts have now targeted after Labor Day as the goal for in person learning. If the State goes to Phase 3 soon and the numbers go back up it possibly results in schools pushing back past labor day.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:46 pm to Riolobo
quote:
So nobody thinks Phase 3 is coming next week?
I feel confident in saying not only does he not move forward to phase 3 but he also does not allow bars to open back up
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:46 pm to gsvar2004
quote:
has he done anything for just 1 week? all his exensions have been 2 or 4 weeks right?
Yes, and I acknowledged that a 1 week extension is basically wishful thinking. Phase 3 is needed to get sports back to practicing and there is a heavy push for that. Yes, there are other needs as important as well.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:46 pm to Riolobo
quote:
So nobody thinks Phase 3 is coming next week?
You haven't been following our governor I take it.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:47 pm to LSUJML
State positivity rate will have to be sustained below 5% for him to do anything more.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:47 pm to Bonkers119
quote:
Yeah and that's the reason it has dropped from almost 5% to 3.3%. The global mortality rate of those "that tested positive" is still around 3.8%
But we know that the “that tested positive number” is not representative of the people that had it, especially early on when we were testing less than 6,000 per day at the height of the deaths and hospitalizations.
This post was edited on 7/30/20 at 1:53 pm
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:51 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
State positivity rate will have to be sustained below 5% for him to do anything more.
I don’t believe that. For Latoya yes, but not for JBE
This post was edited on 7/30/20 at 1:52 pm
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:52 pm to LSUJML
quote:
I feel confident in saying not only does he not move forward to phase 3 but he also does not allow bars to open back up
Duh
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:53 pm to tigerskin
quote:
I don’t believe that. For Latoya yes, but not for JBE
its a definite. To move to Phase 3 we will likely need about a month of sustained sub-5%.
For Latoya it would need to be about 1%
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:54 pm to WaWaWeeWa
It sounds as though you are leaning towards a notable level of immunity existing and, due to that, the virus eventually burning out. And pretty soon. If that’s the case, the state will continue to get better from this point on until we reach a low plateau, like we have seen in Orleans. It’s not two spikes, but different timing of various spikes.
This seems to be confirmed with a little more certainty every week. If this was not the case, New York would have needed the 40,000 ventilators they asked for and the field hospitals in the Javits center and Morial Convention Center would have been filled. Those were legitimate numbers based on an assumed “one-size-fits-all” outlook for susceptibility to exposure, infection and exponential growth.
Recall that the virus has been shown to live in the air for hours and on surfaces for days. It’s out there and it’s highly contagious. A substantial percentage of people in the state will get it or have gotten it. Currently the R is down and the number of hosts is dropping. IF this is all true, then we will be out of the woods much sooner than most expect.
We could see a huge second spike in the fall. Who knows? This may be a roller coaster for a long time. But there is enough science pointing towards it burning out, that I’m on board with this being the eventual outcome. It also keeps me sane to think that this may be nearing an end. Even if it is true, it’s not going to be a pleasant descent between now and then.
Until we know, I’m going to wear my mask, socially distance and be part of what conventional science and society dictates. We will know soon enough. And much more in, say, two weeks.
This seems to be confirmed with a little more certainty every week. If this was not the case, New York would have needed the 40,000 ventilators they asked for and the field hospitals in the Javits center and Morial Convention Center would have been filled. Those were legitimate numbers based on an assumed “one-size-fits-all” outlook for susceptibility to exposure, infection and exponential growth.
Recall that the virus has been shown to live in the air for hours and on surfaces for days. It’s out there and it’s highly contagious. A substantial percentage of people in the state will get it or have gotten it. Currently the R is down and the number of hosts is dropping. IF this is all true, then we will be out of the woods much sooner than most expect.
We could see a huge second spike in the fall. Who knows? This may be a roller coaster for a long time. But there is enough science pointing towards it burning out, that I’m on board with this being the eventual outcome. It also keeps me sane to think that this may be nearing an end. Even if it is true, it’s not going to be a pleasant descent between now and then.
Until we know, I’m going to wear my mask, socially distance and be part of what conventional science and society dictates. We will know soon enough. And much more in, say, two weeks.
This post was edited on 7/30/20 at 1:57 pm
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:55 pm to tigerskin
quote:
For Latoya yes
NOLA is under all guidelines right now. She gives no fricks and wants to strangle her own constituents for federal dollars. She should be in jail.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:56 pm to glassman
quote:
NOLA is under all guidelines right now. She gives no fricks and wants to strangle her own constituents for federal dollars. She should be in jail.
This. NOLA has met the requirements for opening up several times, but she and Avegno have made it CLEAR that this is strictly about power and politics, and actively destroying the economy to get federal dollars.
Which she will skim.
Its not even a secret.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 1:57 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
its a definite. To move to Phase 3 we will likely need about a month of sustained sub-5%.
Sports parents would riot
Posted on 7/30/20 at 2:01 pm to glassman
quote:
NOLA is under all guidelines right now. She gives no fricks and wants to strangle her own constituents for federal dollars. She should be in jail.
This. Fck her!
And JBE isn't stupid so he has to know that he needs to open up soon. Everyone focuses a lot on small businesses suffering (and rightly so), but oil and gas industry is in the tank bad, which I think some people are forgetting about.
Latoya is a lost cause.
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