re: Louisiana COVID-19 - July 30, 2020 Update: 114,481 cases - 3,811 deaths - 1,317,390 tested

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Death count is one of the largest delayed stat. They aren’t reported until a death certificate is reported to state. So the death could have been weeks ago but gets reported as a death today.

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True, but assuming that all of these people leaving the hospital is a good thing bc they were discharged to go home isn’t accurate. Those who left in a body bag would decrease the hospital count as well. That is the only point I’m making. Unfortunately it’s impossible to tell exactly how many went home vs those who passed using this data.

You’re absolutely right but the difference is that we’ve had lots of people leaving in a body bag in the past that we’re replaced by new patients. Seems like we’re replacing fewer of them

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Tuesday is the big day with JBE. Hopefully he will announce on to phase 3

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Ha. No chance whatsoever. Opposite.

He will use this to show the “restrictions are working”.

We will be in Phase 2 throughout August.

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Unfortunately, this is my guess as well. With schools about to open, he will use that as a reason to start the school year in Phase 2 "so we don't have a huge spike".

At this point, I am just glad the numbers the past week are not giving him a reason to go backwards. If that trend continues through Tuesday, there would be no logical reason for any further restrictions.

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However, the positivity rate doesn’t scream to open everything.

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Someone posted awhile back that 5% was the WH recommendation for Phase 3. Based on JBE's statement when we went to Phase 2, he will wait until the total cases are less than 5%. Right now LA's historic rate is 8.69%,

I don’t know that we will “ever” go to Phase 3 until there is a vaccine or therapeutic.

I would expect us to be in 2 AT LEAST until October. Anyone thinking otherwise is naive.

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That’s a great trend, no doubt. However, the positivity rate doesn’t scream to open everything.

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Y’all can downvote this comment all you want, JBE is not opening things back up or moving to phase 3 until the positivity rate is lower than 5%. Will not happen. We can all debate if that’s the right/wrong thing to do, but you’re naive if you think otherwise.

It’ll have to be less than 5% for at least 2-3 weeks and still descending that last week. Any rise, any day above 5%, he ain’t moving.

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If he wakes up one day and has just a little common sense, maybe he will change his stance on it.

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I think we will go to Phase 3 after Labor Day

the numbers are about to plummet

his criteria has always been 2 weeks of declining numbers, if we have 5 weeks of decline, we will move to Phase 3

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Or hello masks, because they are working.

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Looking at states across the South, the downward trend started about the same time regardless if masks required or not.

Seems more like it is going through the rest of the state like it did in NOLA in March/April then suddenly hospitals had no patients from full ICU's in about a week,

I'm hearing that two hospitals in NOLA have zero CV patients the last two weeks