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re: Hurricane Maria - Visiting the Outer Banks before Moving OTS

Posted on 9/18/17 at 10:45 am to
Posted by Glock17
Member since Oct 2007
22434 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 10:45 am to
There's always gotta be one arse hole

Posted by gsvar2004
Member since Nov 2007
7970 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 10:54 am to
There is always that one a-hole.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85395 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 11:49 am to
12z GFS:

Posted by 50_Tiger
Dallas TX
Member since Jan 2016
40282 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 11:52 am to
hahaha oh boy that turn at the last minute
Posted by Jorts R Us
Member since Aug 2013
14878 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 11:54 am to
quote:

Hope most Americans are off the islands. Rubble is going to bounce.


There's about 3M in Puerto Rico that won't be leaving so...
Posted by 50_Tiger
Dallas TX
Member since Jan 2016
40282 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:31 pm to
Looka dis Dropsonde




957mb center found.

These folks about to get the shite knocked out of them.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85395 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:31 pm to
quote:

hahaha oh boy that turn at the last minute


Yeah that's actually a bit west of the previous runs, but they've been all over. Jose is the problem.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85395 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:32 pm to
quote:

957mb center found.

These folks about to get the shite knocked out of them.



The winds are picking up faster than the pressure is dropping. That's 140 mph winds, on the high end for 957mb.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Dallas TX
Member since Jan 2016
40282 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:35 pm to
quote:


The winds are picking up faster than the pressure is dropping. That's 140 mph winds, on the high end for 957mb.


I'm guessing the next pass will have a much lower reading. Looks like they are going back in one more time.

Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35666 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:37 pm to
That 127 kt mean for the last 150 m...

On the SE side.

I want to say I saw a report of an 8 nautical mile wide eye. Basically got a pinhole eye here and producing a very tight pressure gradient. So the winds are probably outperforming the pressure readings currently.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Dallas TX
Member since Jan 2016
40282 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

That 127 kt mean for the last 150 m...

On the SE side.

I want to say I saw a report of an 8 nautical mile wide eye. Basically got a pinhole eye here and producing a very tight pressure gradient. So the winds are probably outperforming the pressure readings currently.



It does look like she will split the islands though. The next stop wherever ground zero is...gonna be a bad bad day.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85395 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
200 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...MARIA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...
...THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 60.4W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...200 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89695 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:52 pm to
I have buddies down there - direct hit. Prayers sent.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85395 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:53 pm to
12z GFS Ensembles:

Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85395 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:56 pm to
From the 2PM Advisory:

quote:

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).


Hurricane winds very tight. 125mph winds in one spot, less than 75mph winds 15 miles away.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Dallas TX
Member since Jan 2016
40282 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

Hurricane winds very tight. 125mph winds in one spot, less than 75mph winds 15 miles away.


EURO should be running soon. I am a tad concerned with the western shift on the GFS.

And yeah she is a very wound up storm. Unfortunately someone is going to have a really bad frickin day.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19832 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

12z GFS Ensembles:


Significant westward shift from 00z and a new Florida cluster.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Dallas TX
Member since Jan 2016
40282 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

Significant westward shift from 00z and a new Florida cluster.


Glad you said this.

Should we consider a sticky soon?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85395 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 12:59 pm to
quote:

Should we consider a sticky soon?




Still 6-7 days out. No need right now, IMO.

ETA - It will stay on the front page regardless.
This post was edited on 9/18/17 at 1:00 pm
Posted by LSUBoo
Knoxville, TN
Member since Mar 2006
101931 posts
Posted on 9/18/17 at 1:00 pm to
Dear far western strand of spaghetti, eat a dick.

Sincerely,
Everyone in Louisiana
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