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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Earl - Mexico Bound
Posted on 7/30/16 at 12:57 pm to rds dc
Posted on 7/30/16 at 12:57 pm to rds dc
Crap. Looks like LSU Sorority Rush is going to be one Uuge wet t-shirt contest.
Maybe I'll head to Punta Cana. Yep I'll ride it out in Punta Cana.
Maybe I'll head to Punta Cana. Yep I'll ride it out in Punta Cana.
This post was edited on 7/30/16 at 12:59 pm
0
Posted on 7/30/16 at 1:01 pm to rds dc
Posted on 7/30/16 at 1:41 pm to rds dc
Starting to roll...
Posted on 7/30/16 at 1:42 pm to NorthEndZone
Latest model?
Posted on 7/30/16 at 2:03 pm to Paul Allen
Posted on 7/30/16 at 2:10 pm to rds dc
Correct thread title should have been:
Consider 97L A Potential Gulf Threat
RIP Coolidge
Consider 97L A Potential Gulf Threat
RIP Coolidge
Posted on 7/30/16 at 2:17 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Starting to roll...
Yep, and there are some signs of improving structure on sat this afternoon but it is still racing forward. It is starting to separate from that big SAL burst:
and it has a pretty favorable upper level setup right now but the forward speed should keep it from staking up vertically:
The 12z models are showing a bit of a north trend and a more organized system but not seeing any really big changes. Probably the biggest change was the 12z GEFS showing a small cluster trekking towards Louisiana:
Posted on 7/30/16 at 2:20 pm to rds dc
quote:I Hope you are correct.
Development should be slow over the next few days, following the John Hope Rule.
Posted on 7/30/16 at 4:35 pm to rds dc
Guess I need to be thinking about putting on my new tank on the generator since having the tank nearly 4 years without needing it installed.
Posted on 7/30/16 at 5:26 pm to NorthEndZone
Thanks
Posted on 7/30/16 at 9:04 pm to Paul Allen
Bob henson has a WU blog up for 97L. WU blogs are typically cautious about over-hyping storms so it's interesting this was included:
quote:
The SHIPS statistical intensity model is increasingly bullish on 97L, with the 18Z Saturday run of SHIPS bringing 97L to a Category 3 strength by Thursday. The last several runs of the HWRF model, which has shown increasing skill over the last several years, also project 97L to reach hurricane strength in the Caribbean (although the 12Z Saturday run appears to have had initialization problems, as noted by WU member Levi Cowan). The 12Z Saturday runs of the GFS and ECMWF models, two of the other more-trustworthy dynamical models, suggest that 97L could begin organizing just before crossing the Yucatan Peninsula and then develop further in the Bay of Campeche by late next week. It is far too soon to assign any confidence to model projections in this time range, but the available guidance indicates that 97L is well worth watching. NHC gives 97L a 60% chance of development by Thursday, August 4.
Posted on 7/30/16 at 9:33 pm to LSU1NSEC
Going to be buried in Mexico, if it even makes it into the boc. We want even get clouds from it. Nothing to get wound up about.
Posted on 7/30/16 at 10:03 pm to lsu mike
I'll wait for the Peej verdict.
Posted on 7/30/16 at 10:07 pm to Jim Rockford
eastern caribbean looks favorable for development 60/70 hours out
Posted on 7/30/16 at 10:19 pm to lsu mike
quote:
Going to be buried in Mexico, if it even makes it into the boc. We want even get clouds from it. Nothing to get wound up about.
That is certainly one of the favored options at this time but it is still a long ways out and there isn't a defined LLC for the models to track.
The biggest difference right now b/w the models (Euro vs GFS) is the placement of the ridge over the top of the system next week. The Euro is farther west with it and keeps the system way south. The ensembles tend to be more stable than the operational models as you start to move out in time and they show the split:
12z GEFS for next Friday morning w/ ridge axis centered over the SE:
vs. 12z Euro EPS for same time w/ ridge axis centered over the ArkLaTex:
The 18z GEFS was shifted even a bit more opening up tracks towards Louisiana:
Posted on 7/30/16 at 10:23 pm to rds dc
What is the time table looking like for any Gulf coast landfall?
Posted on 7/30/16 at 10:43 pm to LSU1NSEC
quote:
eastern caribbean looks favorable for development 60/70 hours out
Esp. if it can stay south of the Islands. A recent UL potential voracity streamer dipped pretty far south into the tropics - reddish area in center of green circle:
An upper level low pinched off from that and is currently drifting NW with significant shear on the SE side:
The models continue to lift it off to the NW, allowing shear to decrease out ahead of 97L:
Then the models show an upper level anticyclone building in over the top of 97L:
as it moves towards increasingly warm water with deep heat content:
The models still struggle with the upper levels, so things very well could not play out like they are showing right now. However, this potential upper level setup combined with a ridge that is either weaker or shifted farther east could potentially produce a potent system in the Gulf by the end of the week. As always, lots of moving parts and lots will probably change b/w now and then.
Posted on 7/30/16 at 10:47 pm to rds dc
Some friends just sold their house in Houston and moved to their camp on Galveston Bay full time. Talk about timing...
Posted on 7/30/16 at 10:50 pm to Jim Rockford
Bring it 97L we ain't scared
Posted on 7/30/16 at 11:12 pm to rds dc
Another thing to look at as the system moves towards the Yucatan is equatorial wave forcing. The MJO is kind of the big player here but there are some smaller faster moving waves that also play a role. A combined MJO/KW just pushed across the Atlantic and Africa setting off the string of disturbances that we are seeing right now.
The MJO doesn't really appear to be influencing things across the Caribbean and Gulf too much right now but may start to suppress things in the WCARB/Gulf by next week (orange shades). Also, note the suppressed area out closer to Africa that seems to be inhibiting 96L:
So, while the MJO may work to suppress convection in the Gulf later next week a KW may counter act that with the convectively active phase (blue lines) moving across the Gulf. The image below is KW superimposed over the MJO. Notice how the suppressed phase of both the MJO and KW are working against 96L today but 97L will move across the convectively active phase of the KW this week:
The MJO doesn't really appear to be influencing things across the Caribbean and Gulf too much right now but may start to suppress things in the WCARB/Gulf by next week (orange shades). Also, note the suppressed area out closer to Africa that seems to be inhibiting 96L:
So, while the MJO may work to suppress convection in the Gulf later next week a KW may counter act that with the convectively active phase (blue lines) moving across the Gulf. The image below is KW superimposed over the MJO. Notice how the suppressed phase of both the MJO and KW are working against 96L today but 97L will move across the convectively active phase of the KW this week:
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