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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:18 pm to CFDoc
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:18 pm to CFDoc
quote:
I can say with 100% certainty that every single weather model has very very little predictive capability, believability, and general usefulness outside of a very small timeframe
But we know with 100% certainty that climate models have proven my SUV is causing glaciers to melt in Antarctica, right?
1
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:22 pm to G Vice
G VICE it's fixed but now road to the field/the field are too muddy. Gonna have to wait a day. ** crossing my fingers **
And nah, not leaving him for his brother. He's good and all but I got the better one in a lot of ways!
And nah, not leaving him for his brother. He's good and all but I got the better one in a lot of ways!
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:23 pm to LSURussian
Depends on your NSF proposal status.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:24 pm to CFDoc
quote:
About 15 years ago I became very interested in studying the Navier-Stokes equations. Two advanced degrees, a dozen or so referred journal articles, and a day to day career in NS modeling later, I can say with 100% certainty that every single weather model has very very little predictive capability, believability, and general usefulness outside of a very small timeframe. Watching them is, at best, a dubious exercise.
How do you think models do on the overall pattern in general?
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:25 pm to CFDoc
You still trying for that million bucks for solving it?
quote:I'm assuming they weigh factors differently in simulation, hence the difference in the model projections
How do you think models do on the overall pattern in general?
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 6:28 pm
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:30 pm to Hammertime
Real cliff notes. Been out the loop the last 12 hours. What is this thing doing? And tanks. 
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:33 pm to CFDoc
quote:
Depends on your NSF proposal status.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:35 pm to GEAUXmedic
That's a bit of a loaded question.
Again, the answer is more on the luck side that being a 'good model'.
The general problem can be divided into equations that govern space, time, and conservative variables. NONE of the models treat all of the spatial, temporal, and conservative variable scales together with any sort of realism. They all have to make gross assumptions of completely ignore one or all of the scales.
So the model(s) that are going to land on the general pattern with any sort of success are the ones that get lucky, for a particular storm, and just happen to include the dominant scales that the particular storm exhibited.
Again, the answer is more on the luck side that being a 'good model'.
The general problem can be divided into equations that govern space, time, and conservative variables. NONE of the models treat all of the spatial, temporal, and conservative variable scales together with any sort of realism. They all have to make gross assumptions of completely ignore one or all of the scales.
So the model(s) that are going to land on the general pattern with any sort of success are the ones that get lucky, for a particular storm, and just happen to include the dominant scales that the particular storm exhibited.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:35 pm to fishfighter
Panama City, Fl area as a tropical storm Thursday evening. That's what my work forecast says. We'll see. That was 12 central.
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 6:46 pm
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:37 pm to fishfighter
quote:
And tanks.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:39 pm to Fatty Magoo
Looking to blow that shite apart.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:39 pm to LSURussian
18z GFS shifted towards the Euro.
but unplug the servers and dust off the Farmers Almanac
but unplug the servers and dust off the Farmers Almanac
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:42 pm to CFDoc
quote:
About 15 years ago I became very interested in studying the Navier-Stokes equations. Two advanced degrees, a dozen or so referred journal articles, and a day to day career in NS modeling later, I can say with 100% certainty that every single weather model has very very little predictive capability, believability, and general usefulness outside of a very small timeframe. Watching them is, at best, a dubious exercise.
Once the storm ends, the model that got the closest did so on luck, not representative physics.
TL;DR. You're exactly right.
This is a gross misrepresentation of the current state of NWP and you know that.
This post was edited on 8/27/16 at 6:43 pm
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:43 pm to Hammertime
quote:
You still trying for that million bucks
You should google Terence Tao lectures. Pretty amazing stuff coming from that guy.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:44 pm to rds dc
quote:
This is a gross misrepresentation of the current state of NWP and you know that.
Link me your models that prove otherwise.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:44 pm to rds dc
8:00pm TWO has raised odds to 40/50% for 99L. Avila did the TWO and he is usually conservative with development
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:45 pm to rds dc
check out the GFS 96 hr 700 mb winds - there's room for error here
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:47 pm to rds dc
quote:
but unplug the servers and dust off the Farmers Almanac
Long range forecast for southeast region
quote:
AUGUST 2016: temperature 79° (1° below avg.); precipitation 5.5" (1" below avg. north, 3" above south); Aug 1-4: T-storms, warm; Aug 5-9: Sunny north, t-storms south; Aug 10-13: Hurricane threat; Aug 14-19: Scattered t-storms, warm; Aug 20-27: T-storms; Aug 28-31: Hurricane threat, sunny elsewhere.
So it called the no name storm as well as potential Hermine
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:47 pm to rds dc
quote:
18z GFS shifted towards the Euro.
I take your word over many here on these storms.
So, what gives? I have to head to New Orleans for a few day. One of my brothers are on his death bed now that he could go at any time. I'm just trying to plan.
Posted on 8/27/16 at 6:51 pm to rds dc
Nerd Fight!!!!
shite is goin' down.
shite is goin' down.
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