re: 2015 Season-Long Hurricane Thread - Watching Invest 96L

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And Andrew was 23 years ago while Camille was 45. So bringing up storms that happened almost a quarter and half century ago really doesn't hold much weight considering on the flip side how many seasons have passed with nothing or minimal tropical storms during el nino periods.

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I'm not really sure what you are getting at here, esp. since not all el nino seasons are equal and time has no influence on individual seasons. If you take a look at the current setup - +ENSO, +PDO, -AMO and then a system in the Gulf this summer doesn't seem so far fetched.

Regarding the models and this upcoming period, there were signs last week that a pattern shift was coming that would allow the Southern Plains to dry out and open the window for a system in the Atlantic (Gulf or off the SE). The way the models are trying to spin up this Gulf system is kind of tricky. The energy originates in the Eastern Pacific and then transfers to the Gulf. This isn't unheard of but is a bit of a long shot.

The current Pacific systems have been pumping up a high pressure ridge over Texas but that ridge should start to slide off to the SW. At the same time, an Atlantic ridge looks to build in from the east setting up flow from the deep tropics into Texas. A cold front looks to push down from the north and all of this could set the stage for more flooding rains across Texas, even if there is no named tropical system. Audrey from '57 would be an extreme example of a June system during an El Nino.

Updated again since models are showing a strong tropical storm hitting SWLA on Friday. SLEA would be on the right (bad) side of the storm if that happens.

One model is showing it -the GEM aka the CMC, which is also known as the "crazy uncle" as it's usually the one to make strong storms that never materialize. Ill say, it's pretty consistent, but really until the GFS, EURO etc. come on board there's literally nothing to worry about.

eta: this is for a wave coming out of the caribbean, which is separate from the storm the GFS was hinting at out of the BOC that those models have now backed off on.

12z and 18z GFS on board for a tropical storm in the GOM, 18z run shows a Houston Landfall. CMC, NAM, and Euro show development as well, differ on landfall into south Texas.

edit: NHC now mentions it:

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea to Belize and the Yucatan peninsula of
Mexico are primarily associated with an upper-level trough. This
activity is expected to move northwestward into the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday. Development, if any, is expected to
be slow to occur due to marginal upper-level winds while this system
moves generally northwestward through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Brennan

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Monday 7pm:


Tuesday 1am:


Tuesday 7am:


Tuesday 1pm:


CMC is on board as well:

thanks for posting this. Been seeing the GFS hinting at something in the GOM for the last few days

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When will the rain stop?

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Regardless of strength, this will be a big rainmaker.

Models are now running for 91L



The HWRF and GFDL (American run hurricane models) were both upgraded last week, so it will be interesting to see how they handle this. The GFS and Euro were both upgraded during the past year and the Euro is still verifying as the superior model.

Right now the Euro is a good bit farther W with the ridge and that drives the distrubance into S Texas. The GFS is farther E and allows the distrubance to slide up towards the Texas/Louisiana border.



Heavy rain is a lock with this but, at this time, it doesn't look like it will be much more than a TD or weak TS.

Up to 50% now.

Since your projections in the tropics are what PJ's are in sports, I appreciate the heads up to buy sun screen and plan a beach vacation ..