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1
Posted on 5/7/15 at 9:08 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
@NHC_Atlantic 2m2 minutes ago
NHC will be initiating advisories on Subtropical Storm Ana at 11 pm EDT.
Posted on 5/7/15 at 9:14 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
quote:
Thank god you're on top of this non-threatening storm. Rummy wanna be.
I know right. I just said a prayer in your honor thanking god for me.
Posted on 5/27/15 at 10:24 pm to GEAUXmedic
NOAA issued the 2015 Atlantic Outlook today.
They are going less active than normal, which isn't surprising at all given the emerging El Nino and the fact that the Atlantic appears to be switching from the +AMO configuration to -AMO. Guessing on the number of storms is somewhat pointless but it is the way that most outfits like to convey this information to the public. ACE is a better indicator, IMO, and they are going below normal on that as well.
In the technical discuss for the upcoming season they basically go "typical" El Nino with a hostile MDR because of increased shear and sinking/stable air.
Also, some pretty interesting stuff if you look back up at the Activity Era slide above and then at the figure below from this paper.
Dr. Forbes talks about the current "active period" possibly coming to an end here.
All that being said, even during an a slow period there are windows of opportunity and one such window appears to be coming up over the next 7 to 10 days. The background state will stay strong El Nino but the atmosphere looks to transition to a brief La Nina like pattern. This should allow Texas to dry out a bit and make the Gulf/East Coast briefly favorable for a system to spin up.
They are going less active than normal, which isn't surprising at all given the emerging El Nino and the fact that the Atlantic appears to be switching from the +AMO configuration to -AMO. Guessing on the number of storms is somewhat pointless but it is the way that most outfits like to convey this information to the public. ACE is a better indicator, IMO, and they are going below normal on that as well.
In the technical discuss for the upcoming season they basically go "typical" El Nino with a hostile MDR because of increased shear and sinking/stable air.
Also, some pretty interesting stuff if you look back up at the Activity Era slide above and then at the figure below from this paper.
Dr. Forbes talks about the current "active period" possibly coming to an end here.
All that being said, even during an a slow period there are windows of opportunity and one such window appears to be coming up over the next 7 to 10 days. The background state will stay strong El Nino but the atmosphere looks to transition to a brief La Nina like pattern. This should allow Texas to dry out a bit and make the Gulf/East Coast briefly favorable for a system to spin up.
Posted on 5/27/15 at 10:33 pm to rds dc
But, just remember hurricanes like Andrew and Frederic and nearly Camille occured during "low activity" periods.
Posted on 5/27/15 at 10:33 pm to East Coast Band
Yeah, but that's not the point...
Posted on 5/27/15 at 10:39 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
But, just remember hurricanes like Andrew and Frederic and nearly Camille occured during "low activity" periods.
True and anyone with a basic understanding of statistics and chaotic systems would get this.
Posted on 5/27/15 at 10:44 pm to rds dc
Trust in the bell curve
Posted on 5/27/15 at 10:48 pm to rds dc
quote:
understanding of statistics and chaotic systems would get this
somebody get Jeff Goldblum's character from Jurassic Park in here to talk about systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions
Posted on 5/27/15 at 10:57 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
But, just remember hurricanes like Andrew and Frederic and nearly Camille occured during "low activity" periods.
And Andrew was 23 years ago while Camille was 45. So bringing up storms that happened almost a quarter and half century ago really doesn't hold much weight considering on the flip side how many seasons have passed with nothing or minimal tropical storms during el nino periods.
Posted on 6/3/15 at 11:19 pm to lsu mike
From Crown Weather Services
quote:
Wednesday 6/3/2015 - 3:55 pm ET/2:55 pm CT: The model guidance, such as the European and GFS models, have been consistent in showing energy and moisture to cross over from the eastern Pacific into the Gulf of Mexico where it becomes some sort of a tropical system towards later next week.
Obviously, we have a long time to watch this possibility, but I did want to point it out and give you all a heads up about it.
Posted on 6/4/15 at 3:23 pm to TDsngumbo
Original post is updated to reflect current goings on.
Posted on 6/4/15 at 5:07 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
Thursday 6/4/2015 - 10 am ET/9 am CT: The Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf of Mexico will need to be monitored for possible tropical development late next week into next weekend. The model guidance, especially the European model, has been consistent in showing energy and moisture to cross over from the eastern Pacific into the Gulf of Mexico where it becomes some sort of a tropical system towards by late next week over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical development is not a sure thing, but it is something to really keep an eye on and I will keep you all updated on the latest.
LINK
Posted on 6/4/15 at 5:18 pm to TDsngumbo
1000millibar low pressure equates to a 50 mph Tropical storm. If model verified.
Posted on 6/4/15 at 6:03 pm to MottLaneKid
Of course the one week I take off to go fricking fishing!
Posted on 6/4/15 at 6:10 pm to MottLaneKid
MottLaneKid
knows.
knows.
Posted on 6/4/15 at 6:53 pm to lsu mike
quote:
And Andrew was 23 years ago while Camille was 45. So bringing up storms that happened almost a quarter and half century ago really doesn't hold much weight considering on the flip side how many seasons have passed with nothing or minimal tropical storms during el nino periods.
Just because you said this we will probably get raped this season.
Posted on 6/4/15 at 7:02 pm to GeauxLSUGeaux
My guess is that IF anything forms, it will be badly sheared and most of the rain and wind will be well displaced from the center. I don't expect anything very organized and certainly nothing very strong. I probably just jinxed us all.
Posted on 6/4/15 at 7:31 pm to BigB0882
Thanks for jinxing us
Posted on 6/4/15 at 7:50 pm to TDsngumbo
Well frick. What has two thumbs and a trip to Grand Isle to murder some fish planned for late next week?
This post was edited on 6/4/15 at 7:50 pm
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