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Questions about how next offseason will work if we go after a big FA...
Posted on 7/14/15 at 12:24 am
Posted on 7/14/15 at 12:24 am
what's the deal with Gordon and Ryno's cap holds? At what point in the offseason do we have to renounce them?
Odds are obviously that we don't land Durant. What I'm trying to figure out is if we will have time to get a feel for what he wants to do and, if it doesn't look good for us, can we still hold on to their Bird Rights if we want?
While I don't think Ryno has a longterm spot on this team, he could be a valuable S&T piece. I honestly think that we're going to see the best Gordon we've seen in NOLA. He's not going to shoot 45% from 3 again, but he'll be around 40%, and I think his weight loss will lead to better defense and his attacking the basket more frequently. If he ends up playing really well, I just don't think that it would be worth losing him + Ryno's S&T value just to go after a big fish that we have a ~5% chance of landing.
Odds are obviously that we don't land Durant. What I'm trying to figure out is if we will have time to get a feel for what he wants to do and, if it doesn't look good for us, can we still hold on to their Bird Rights if we want?
While I don't think Ryno has a longterm spot on this team, he could be a valuable S&T piece. I honestly think that we're going to see the best Gordon we've seen in NOLA. He's not going to shoot 45% from 3 again, but he'll be around 40%, and I think his weight loss will lead to better defense and his attacking the basket more frequently. If he ends up playing really well, I just don't think that it would be worth losing him + Ryno's S&T value just to go after a big fish that we have a ~5% chance of landing.
3
Posted on 7/14/15 at 12:32 am to THRILLHO
This is where the moratorium helps. You go after Durant and he says no and you still have the ability to go over the cap to re-sign your own because you have their Bird Rights.
We don't have to renounce them until we need the space to sign another guy. Now, maybe we chase KD and he takes days to make up his mind and in that time, Gordon agrees to a deal with someone else. If that happens, having his BR only matter if the team wants to do a sign and trade with you.
I respect your final sentence, but I disagree. As good as Ryno and Gordon are, in the best case scenario, they are replaceable players IMO. Not easily replaceable, but replaceable. You have a real shot at a superstar, you take it. And if the Pels don't have a real chance, they will know it quickly.
We don't have to renounce them until we need the space to sign another guy. Now, maybe we chase KD and he takes days to make up his mind and in that time, Gordon agrees to a deal with someone else. If that happens, having his BR only matter if the team wants to do a sign and trade with you.
I respect your final sentence, but I disagree. As good as Ryno and Gordon are, in the best case scenario, they are replaceable players IMO. Not easily replaceable, but replaceable. You have a real shot at a superstar, you take it. And if the Pels don't have a real chance, they will know it quickly.
Posted on 7/14/15 at 1:11 am to THRILLHO
quote:
While I don't think Ryno has a longterm spot on this team, he could be a valuable S&T piece.
At this point I'm starting to think Ryno could be gone midseason
As for Gordon, he's gonna need to show more than just 3 point shooting this season. I'd love to see more of his pre-injury explosiveness
This post was edited on 7/14/15 at 1:13 am
Posted on 7/14/15 at 8:13 am to Cap Crunch
Above would give us a team of:
Jrue
QPon?
KD
AD
Asik
Bench of: Vet PG/#18-20 draft pick/Gee/DC/Ajinca
Posted on 7/14/15 at 8:57 am to Cap Crunch
quote:
As for Gordon, he's gonna need to show more than just 3 point shooting this season. I'd love to see more of his pre-injury explosiveness
Honestly, I'm curious to see if the additional spacing of the offense results in Gordon getting calls when he's hacked. That alone could greatly improve his numbers.
Posted on 7/14/15 at 9:50 am to Galactic Inquisitor
that goes for Evans also
and jrue
all our guards need to be much better at getting to the foul line
3 pointers are great and all but foul shots are better
and jrue
all our guards need to be much better at getting to the foul line
3 pointers are great and all but foul shots are better
Posted on 7/14/15 at 10:11 am to THRILLHO
Over half the teams in the league will have capspace to sign a max contract next offseason. I think the lack of a smoothing period is going to make the 2016 offseason miserable. We are entering a period where cap space to sign max contracts far exceeds the number of players close to deserving of a max contract.
I think Durant is an extreme longshot for us. I think we need to move Ryno midseason for a wing. We can always make room for KD if necessary or to make an offer to Harrison Barnes (GS would likely match) and also allows us to resign Gordon.
ETA - I don't think there is anyway we let Gordon walk because this upcoming free agency period will be the most competitive/expensive in history and not sure we can replace his production.
I think Durant is an extreme longshot for us. I think we need to move Ryno midseason for a wing. We can always make room for KD if necessary or to make an offer to Harrison Barnes (GS would likely match) and also allows us to resign Gordon.
ETA - I don't think there is anyway we let Gordon walk because this upcoming free agency period will be the most competitive/expensive in history and not sure we can replace his production.
This post was edited on 7/14/15 at 10:13 am
Posted on 7/14/15 at 10:25 am to NOFOX
I often see this argument that "everyone will have space"
But at the end of the day, a free agent still chooses a single team. Somebody gets them. Why can't that somebody be us?
The line about entering a time when the cap space to sign max deals far exceeds the players worth is DEAD ON. So, if that is the case, why not go all out for one of the only guys worth the max (and probably more)
You don't get him, you wait for the dust to settle and get the guys on a bargain deal or guys you have Bird Rights to.
I understand the appeal of taking the guaranteed $1000 rather than the 10% shot at the lotto, but in the long run, the $1000 doesn't really change your life. I try for the lotto, and if it doesn't work out, I still got another 3 years to put the star next to AD. I keep going for that over just being satisfied with the above average starter.
But at the end of the day, a free agent still chooses a single team. Somebody gets them. Why can't that somebody be us?
The line about entering a time when the cap space to sign max deals far exceeds the players worth is DEAD ON. So, if that is the case, why not go all out for one of the only guys worth the max (and probably more)
You don't get him, you wait for the dust to settle and get the guys on a bargain deal or guys you have Bird Rights to.
I understand the appeal of taking the guaranteed $1000 rather than the 10% shot at the lotto, but in the long run, the $1000 doesn't really change your life. I try for the lotto, and if it doesn't work out, I still got another 3 years to put the star next to AD. I keep going for that over just being satisfied with the above average starter.
Posted on 7/14/15 at 10:28 am to NOFOX
quote:
We are entering a period where cap space to sign max contracts far exceeds the number of players close to deserving of a max contract.
I think Durant is an extreme longshot for us. I think we need to move Ryno midseason for a wing. We can always make room for KD if necessary or to make an offer to Harrison Barnes (GS would likely match) and also allows us to resign Gordon.
Yeah, It'd be nice if we knew we had no shot by the deadline, because if you have no shot at KD then you'll be better off trading expirings for longer term deals under the current/old cap structure.
quote:
I don't think there is anyway we let Gordon walk because this upcoming free agency period will be the most competitive/expensive in history and not sure we can replace his production.
He lost 10 pounds so hopefully he's ready to be more than a 3 point shooter, but if he isn't, I think replacing Gordon with Pondexter is better than paying Gordon $15+.
Would you rather spend $20 million on
Gordon/QPon
or
QPon/Batum
I'd go with QPon/Batum unless Gordon really blows up in his contract year.
Posted on 7/14/15 at 10:42 am to NOFOX
quote:
Over half the teams in the league will have cap space to sign a max contract next offseason.
quote:
I think Durant is an extreme longshot for us.
quote:
We can always make room for KD if necessary
Yup. Having the cap space means little. Cap space alone isn't going to get Durant in the door. If the Pels want to have any shot of landing a 2nd max player to go with Davis, they have to become a WCF contender this season.
quote:
We are entering a period where cap space to sign max contracts far exceeds the number of players close to deserving of a max contract.
Will be very interesting- Durant, Horford, and maybe a couple of others, but not much else next summer. I wonder how many, if any, teams will not be too concerned about the salary floor. This also may drive the Gordon market way up if he has a good season. I don't know if you can bring him back for much more than what he's making now.
Posted on 7/14/15 at 10:49 am to Crewz
quote:
I try for the lotto
Poor people buy lotto tickets because its a poor investment. We can always make moves to clear space if next offseason we are actually in the running for Durant, but I am not a fan of playing the longshot. I don't want to lose talent or forego acquiring players based on the slim chance we get Durant.
OKC will basically be forced to do a S&T and get back assets rather than let him walk for nothing if he decides to leave. So we can always make room for Durant if he picks us.
Posted on 7/14/15 at 10:58 am to NOFOX
quote:
Poor people buy lotto tickets because its a poor investment
A tax on people who don't understand math.
quote:
I understand the appeal of taking the guaranteed $1000 rather than the 10% shot at the lotto, but in the long run, the $1000 doesn't really change your life. I try for the lotto, and if it doesn't work out, I still got another 3 years to put the star next to AD. I keep going for that over just being satisfied with the above average starter.
This is fascinating in light of all the Holiday/Asik 1sts talk. Basically the argument against what Demps did right here.
Obviously different circumstances with a known HoF like Durant involved, but Davis's possible departure date has grown 2 years closer too.
Posted on 7/14/15 at 11:12 am to corndeaux
Exactly a KNOWN future HOF'er that I (unlike most) think the Pels have a legit shot at.
I hated the 2013 draft outside of Oladipo. Then, the next two years, the picks were likely to be the 10 or later range, which historically is a crapshoot.
It all comes down to whether you believe the Pels have a real shot at Durant. I do. Others don't. Impossible to know who is right at this point.
I think the guys we might lose by chasing him and missing are replaceable. I take the shot. I get the other side; I just don't agree
I hated the 2013 draft outside of Oladipo. Then, the next two years, the picks were likely to be the 10 or later range, which historically is a crapshoot.
It all comes down to whether you believe the Pels have a real shot at Durant. I do. Others don't. Impossible to know who is right at this point.
I think the guys we might lose by chasing him and missing are replaceable. I take the shot. I get the other side; I just don't agree
Posted on 7/14/15 at 11:59 am to Crewz
quote:
Exactly a KNOWN future HOF'er that I (unlike most) think the Pels have a legit shot at.
At least 17% of the league have a legit shot at Durant. I don't think anyone is against kicking the tires, but it's dangerous to put all of our eggs into that one basket. Demps could find himself unemployed in short order if he swings and misses.
Posted on 7/14/15 at 12:06 pm to Galactic Inquisitor
The question should be. Will Gordon and batum/Barnes be better or worse than one kd and a filler.
Posted on 7/14/15 at 12:06 pm to Crewz
You take the shot, certainly. But I believe the best, and, frankly, only, shot they have is to win big, proving their status as a rising contender.
That doesn't mean you take on long, risky contracts to "win now." But you do what you can to make the roster as strong as possible right now and going forward. Like ATL said, moves that fill holes but still keep them flexible. If you can get a wing on a reasonable deal for Anderson, you do it. Cap space can be created in the summer if Durant or whomever is interested
Like you say, we'll just have to see how it plays out.
That doesn't mean you take on long, risky contracts to "win now." But you do what you can to make the roster as strong as possible right now and going forward. Like ATL said, moves that fill holes but still keep them flexible. If you can get a wing on a reasonable deal for Anderson, you do it. Cap space can be created in the summer if Durant or whomever is interested
Like you say, we'll just have to see how it plays out.
Posted on 7/14/15 at 12:34 pm to Galactic Inquisitor
quote:
At least 17% of the league have a legit shot at Durant. I don't think anyone is against kicking the tires, but it's dangerous to put all of our eggs into that one basket. Demps could find himself unemployed in short order if he swings and misses.
He swings and misses - worst case scenario is he loses Gordon and Ryno and has money to replace them, and then a huge spike in the cap again the following year.
AD makes everyone better. Half the board (if not more) claimed Ryno hurt more than he helped last year and now all of a sudden losing him could cost Dell his job? Along with a one dimensional guy (thus far in NOLA, at best) in Gordon?
The hub is AD. He makes others so much better, and I have no fear that if we lose Ryno and Gordon we can replace them with similar players. I guess I just don't see the downside others do.
Posted on 7/14/15 at 12:35 pm to corndeaux
quote:
You take the shot, certainly. But I believe the best, and, frankly, only, shot they have is to win big, proving their status as a rising contender.
That doesn't mean you take on long, risky contracts to "win now." But you do what you can to make the roster as strong as possible right now and going forward. Like ATL said, moves that fill holes but still keep them flexible. If you can get a wing on a reasonable deal for Anderson, you do it. Cap space can be created in the summer if Durant or whomever is interested
Like you say, we'll just have to see how it plays out.
So, let's say you have the chance in February to move Ryno for Derozen, Parsons, or Gay, do you do it?
If not, what level of wing are you saying yes to?
Posted on 7/14/15 at 12:44 pm to Crewz
quote:
He swings and misses - worst case scenario is he loses Gordon and Ryno and has money to replace them, and then a huge spike in the cap again the following year.
And all he has is cap space. You then have a hole at the 2, no decent depth, and your dick in your hand. I think you are greatly understating the cost to go along with the big reward.
quote:
AD makes everyone better. Half the board (if not more) claimed Ryno hurt more than he helped last year and now all of a sudden losing him could cost Dell his job? Along with a one dimensional guy (thus far in NOLA, at best) in Gordon?
And we got waxed in the first round. Yes, AD makes everyone better, but so did Chrissy Poo and we see where that got us. Nobody is ruing the loss of either guy, but losing them without any upgrade to go along with it puts us back 2-3 years.
quote:
He makes others so much better, and I have no fear that if we lose Ryno and Gordon we can replace them with similar players.
SG is a really thin position in the league. We know you don't like Gordon, but he's not as easily replaced as you are making him out to be. He has good chemistry with AD and, as we saw in Miami, it takes time to build chemistry.
quote:
a one dimensional guy (thus far in NOLA, at best) in Gordon
This is an absurd statement. He is at the absolute worst one-dimensional.
Posted on 7/14/15 at 12:53 pm to Galactic Inquisitor
Your evaluation of Gordon in NOLA is then far different from mine.
Now, I will grant that the future could be much brighter for him, but he has been poor in his time here so far, all things considered.
I just don't see the worst case scenario as bleakly as you do. So we can agree to disagree.
Now, I will grant that the future could be much brighter for him, but he has been poor in his time here so far, all things considered.
I just don't see the worst case scenario as bleakly as you do. So we can agree to disagree.
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