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Posted on 4/6/16 at 12:16 pm to Jester
I don't know the exact % nor do i really care. and these numbers came from someone's opinion on who he considers a contributor and a starter.
All i know is from 2006 to 2012, these are the players that have made a big difference.
Draymond Green
Deandre Jordan
Marc Gasol
Chandler Parsons
Isiah Thomas
Jae Crowder
Kris Middleton
Hassan Whiteside
Goran Dragic
Paul Milsap
That's 10 out of 210, imo
These guys are good role players.
PJ Tucker (who took 7 years to be a role player at best)
Carl Landry
Big Baby
Patrick Beverly
Danny Green (who's probably only here b/c he plays for SAS)
Patty Mills (same as Green)
Will Barton
that's 7 out of 200 remaining
There's about 10 more contributors that have maybe done reasonable for a season or two for a certain team, but aren't guys that make a difference on a playoff team, even as a contributor. Guys like Asik, Dante, Mike Scott, Marcus Thornton, Meeks, Budinger, etc.
Landry Fields and Lance Stevenson at one time were considered difference makers, but that lasted a year and now they both suck.
So if you ask me,
there's about a 5% chance to get a really good player
there's about a 10% chance to get a contributor in the right setting.
the remaining 85% to me are worthless players that give you literally nothing, based on my opinion of 2nd round draft picks from 2006-2012.
The '12 2nd round was a very good class.
Looking at the 2nd rounds, on average you'll get 3-5 players that will be able to play reasonable minutes in the nba at best.
All i know is from 2006 to 2012, these are the players that have made a big difference.
Draymond Green
Deandre Jordan
Marc Gasol
Chandler Parsons
Isiah Thomas
Jae Crowder
Kris Middleton
Hassan Whiteside
Goran Dragic
Paul Milsap
That's 10 out of 210, imo
These guys are good role players.
PJ Tucker (who took 7 years to be a role player at best)
Carl Landry
Big Baby
Patrick Beverly
Danny Green (who's probably only here b/c he plays for SAS)
Patty Mills (same as Green)
Will Barton
that's 7 out of 200 remaining
There's about 10 more contributors that have maybe done reasonable for a season or two for a certain team, but aren't guys that make a difference on a playoff team, even as a contributor. Guys like Asik, Dante, Mike Scott, Marcus Thornton, Meeks, Budinger, etc.
Landry Fields and Lance Stevenson at one time were considered difference makers, but that lasted a year and now they both suck.
So if you ask me,
there's about a 5% chance to get a really good player
there's about a 10% chance to get a contributor in the right setting.
the remaining 85% to me are worthless players that give you literally nothing, based on my opinion of 2nd round draft picks from 2006-2012.
The '12 2nd round was a very good class.
Looking at the 2nd rounds, on average you'll get 3-5 players that will be able to play reasonable minutes in the nba at best.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 12:39 pm to TeddyPadillac
We don't really disagree on the big picture at all. The team is fairly fricked at the moment.
A few things where we diverge:
I have no belief, whatsoever, they will be able to convince Batum to come here. I'm also do not believe Kent Bazemore would come here, unless you're going to give him something north of $15-$16M annually. No thanks at that price. He is not that good. That doesn't mean they can't get back into the playoff picture, though.
They blew their shot to be a top 4 seed the last 4 years. No FA or draft pick is going to turn this team into a top 4 seed in one year. They can get back into the playoffs next season and they can start building up the team to be in that mix 2-3 years from now, hence draft picks over late 20s, max or near max level UFAs. Davis is still on the hook for a while longer- they have to convince him they can build something serious and sustainable over the next couple of years. No reason to rush (AGAIN).
Like I said in the Plan B thread, Courtney Lee is a target. And he may come in under $10M annually. Jared Dudley, if he has any gas left in the tank, is a 3/4 vet familiar with Gentry. Seems like a good fit here for 20MPG and will be relatively cheap. If they move Evans, Evan Turner seems like a guy who would fit Evans's intended role as super sub. They need some singles and doubles, because they aren't going to reel in a big FA fish. More competent, NBA caliber players around Davis will do wonders for this team. Still a 40-45 win team, but you have to start somewhere.
A few things where we diverge:
I have no belief, whatsoever, they will be able to convince Batum to come here. I'm also do not believe Kent Bazemore would come here, unless you're going to give him something north of $15-$16M annually. No thanks at that price. He is not that good. That doesn't mean they can't get back into the playoff picture, though.
They blew their shot to be a top 4 seed the last 4 years. No FA or draft pick is going to turn this team into a top 4 seed in one year. They can get back into the playoffs next season and they can start building up the team to be in that mix 2-3 years from now, hence draft picks over late 20s, max or near max level UFAs. Davis is still on the hook for a while longer- they have to convince him they can build something serious and sustainable over the next couple of years. No reason to rush (AGAIN).
Like I said in the Plan B thread, Courtney Lee is a target. And he may come in under $10M annually. Jared Dudley, if he has any gas left in the tank, is a 3/4 vet familiar with Gentry. Seems like a good fit here for 20MPG and will be relatively cheap. If they move Evans, Evan Turner seems like a guy who would fit Evans's intended role as super sub. They need some singles and doubles, because they aren't going to reel in a big FA fish. More competent, NBA caliber players around Davis will do wonders for this team. Still a 40-45 win team, but you have to start somewhere.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 12:59 pm to TeddyPadillac
No Wes Mathews? Crabbe?
There's more guys to that list.
2nd rounders aren't always bad players and quite a few are at least rotation guys.
There's more guys to that list.
2nd rounders aren't always bad players and quite a few are at least rotation guys.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 1:05 pm to corndeaux
quote:
I have no belief, whatsoever, they will be able to convince Batum to come here.
probably not. nor Barnes, and i don't think either deserve $18+ million a year, although i'd be willing to risk it with Barnes, maybe.
quote:
do not believe Kent Bazemore would come here, unless you're going to give him something north of $15-$16M annually. No thanks at that price. He is not that good.
I agree. I'd like him but in the $12 million range maybe.
I'd really rather give Allen Crabbe some money and see what he can do. But I don't know what he will command. Getting him around the $6-8 million would suffice to me.
I wouldn't mind giving Gerald Green a shot after having a down season in Miami. He could be had for cheap most likely, like Courtney Lee.
I'd pay Bradley Beal some money, but he'd probably get a season ending injury getting up from the table after he signs.
I just want to get some young wings that can shoot the 3 and play some defense, and that's not EG and Reke. I believe Jrue and AD can make a young wing a good player.
quote:
If they move Evans, Evan Turner seems like a guy who would fit Evans's intended role as super sub
I'd just rather Evans. Like i said before, i don't want this type of player though.
I don't know what, if anything we could get for Reke/Asik/Ajinca in the offseason, but i would'nt object to much to a trade for Rudy Gay maybe, who i only mention b/c i really don't know what we could get for any of them besides just dumping them. I know this contradicts my young wing who can shoot and play D, but i know Rudy can get his own shot off whenever he wants, much like Joe Johnson still can. They aren't great, but that's a good skill to have in a veteran player.
Id really like one of Washington's young SF.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 1:10 pm to theducks
quote:
No Wes Mathews
Undrafted, like Bazemore.
quote:
Crabbe
2013 draftee
i was looking at 2006-2012.
he still hasnt' proven anything yet, but looks very promising, which is why the rankings stopped in 2012 b/c those guys after '12 are still trying to prove themselves for the most part.
quote:
2nd rounders aren't always bad players and quite a few are at least rotation guys.
80-85% isn't always. you are correct. they really don't have a lot of bench players in the 2nd round. They either are really good players, there are a few good contributors on the right team, or they aren't NBA players which is the vast majority of them.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 2:06 pm to corndeaux
quote:
Like I said in the Plan B thread, Courtney Lee is a target.
I could see them targeting Parsons. He would work well with the medical staff here.
Posted on 4/6/16 at 5:10 pm to Cap Crunch
Frankly he's doesn't possess the skill set for the neo NBA..he might be out of the league after this contract.
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