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re: AFA dodged, WTF

Posted on 7/1/15 at 9:48 am to
Posted by Galactic Inquisitor
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
15190 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 9:48 am to
quote:

I personally do not think Aminu is worth the MLE. Maybe half of it


You really think Aminu is a 2.65M per year player?
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115958 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 9:55 am to
quote:

I personally do not think Aminu is worth the MLE.


Completely agree.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115958 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 9:55 am to
quote:

You really think Aminu is a 2.65M per year player?


I do, yes.
Posted by Galactic Inquisitor
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
15190 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 9:59 am to
quote:

I do, yes.


Well, okay. I think any GM in the league would be falling all over themselves like a drunk waterhead if they could get him for that.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
72028 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 9:59 am to
His career PER of 12.4 has him lodged between "In the rotation" and "scrounging for minutes". That's about right.


quote:

A Year For the Ages: 35.0
Runaway MVP Candidate: 30.0
Strong MVP Candidate: 27.5
Weak MVP Candidate: 25.0
Bona fide All-Star: 22.5
Borderline All-Star: 20.0
Solid 2nd option: 18.0
3rd Banana: 16.5
Pretty good player: 15.0
In the rotation: 13.0
Scrounging for minutes: 11.0
Definitely renting: 9.0
The Next Stop: DLeague 5.0

Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115958 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 10:04 am to
Scorers get paid. He's not a scorer.

He rebounds well and can dunk. He's a small ball 4, which might benefit him in this "new era" (if it is one). He really can't do much else. He can't dribble, he can't shoot, and I question his basketball IQ.

I'm just not a fan at all.

I think he CAN be a very useful player to the right team, but at a low price. WHen you've got him at 3-5 mill a year, that's fine and he can be serviceable. More than that....meh.
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 10:04 am to
quote:

You really think Aminu is a 2.65M per year player?


I do. I think you can find guys every year for the minimum that will give you similar production. I would take Morrow over him, for instance.

I am just not a fan. I think the D is overrated and you can get rebounds elsewhere. And he just kills your spacing. Not a fan.
Posted by Galactic Inquisitor
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
15190 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 10:08 am to
quote:

I do. I think you can find guys every year for the minimum that will give you similar production. I would take Morrow over him, for instance.


Morrow is making more than $2.65M on an older deal. He's going to make a lot more on his next deal. Watch.

quote:

I am just not a fan. I think the D is overrated and you can get rebounds elsewhere. And he just kills your spacing. Not a fan.


Tyreke kills your spacing, too. So does Dante Cunningham. He is not well-suited to a plodding, methodical offense, which is the context in which you are judging him.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61514 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 10:08 am to
quote:

You really think Aminu is a 2.65M per year player?


Did we not just have a discussion talking about how Aminu and Cunningham were fairly comparable players? Sure Aminu is younger but he'd have to actually improve to be worth more than a similar ability but already maxed out veteran.

Aminu's FG% and 3P% since his rookie year

39.4% 31.5%
41.1% 27.7%
47.5% 21.1%
47.4% 27.1%
41.2% 27.4%

Not exactly an upward trajectory. He also has declined in his rebounding numbers peaking out in year 3. Now I'm sure role has a bit to do with that, but 16.9 TRB% makes you an elite rebounding SF, 13.7% makes you just good. His peak rebounding year did occur with poor rebounding but good boxing out Robin Lopez, so maybe he'll revive that a bit if RoLo stays in Portland, but I wouldn't bet $30 million on him becoming a significantly different player than he currently is.
Posted by Galactic Inquisitor
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
15190 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 10:18 am to
quote:

He rebounds well and can dunk. He's a small ball 4, which might benefit him in this "new era" (if it is one). He really can't do much else. He can't dribble, he can't shoot, and I question his basketball IQ.

I'm just not a fan at all.


He is very good in transition, both on offense (because he understands proper spacing and passes very well) and defense (because he can at least slow down all 5 players on the opponent). He is always going to be a role player, but he checks several boxes that you need checked when building a roster.
Posted by Galactic Inquisitor
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
15190 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 10:19 am to
quote:

Sure Aminu is younger but he'd have to actually improve to be worth more than a similar ability but already maxed out veteran.



Cunningham's salary is a result of his off-court troubles that he got tied into.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61514 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 10:21 am to
quote:

Cunningham's salary is a result of his off-court troubles that he got tied into.


He's never made more than $2.2 million in his career.
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 10:24 am to
I think there's a particular bias w/ Aminu from Pels fans (which is fine and understandable). I fully disagree with the $2.5M, which is ok; different strokes for different folks. MLE is a fair price for him IMO, regardless of his career PER or FG%.

He's never going to be a plus offensive player, but if you look at what happened in Dallas, there are encouraging signs.

The Mavs offense remained potent with him on the floor. Their defense, on a roster littered with well known mediocre to minus defenders, became much more stout (he was #6 SF on ESPN Real Plus Minus).

Of course, context matters. If Portland thinks he will be a like for like Batum replacement, they are fooling themselves. But if you use him for around 20MPG as a 7th/8th man (like a MLE guy usually is) and you are smart with how you deploy him, he can be an asset.

This from BBallBreakdown is a fair survey IMO.

This post was edited on 7/1/15 at 10:28 am
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
38820 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 10:28 am to
we can agree or disagree as to his value on the floor, but less than 3MM in the new cap probably will be very, very end of bench towel wavers. Aminu is a rotation player and that should be obvious

this is a good deal for aminu no doubt, but I suspect Portland will be very happy with it as well.
Posted by Galactic Inquisitor
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
15190 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 10:32 am to
quote:

He's never made more than $2.2 million in his career.


He's also only comparable to Aminu in eFG% and blocks

6.9 to 8.6 rebounds per 36
1.2 to 1.7 assists per 36
1.3 to 1.6 steals per 36
1.0 to 0.9 blocks per 36
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
38820 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 10:34 am to
Danny green just got 4/45 by the way
Relative value of annual salary must be completely re calibrated going ahead

Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115958 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 10:37 am to
Yeah pretty much.

The only way we get a Wing of any note is via trade or wait until next year. May have to get a bargain guy and just platoon the position again between QPon/Tyreke/Bargain Guy/Babbitt etc.
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
32506 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 10:57 am to
I think he was expected to make 10 or so, I can stomach Green for 11.25 much better than Aminu for 7.5.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Member since Jan 2006
72028 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 11:05 am to
That's a good deal for green

dunleavy got 3/14

There is no justification for AFA's deal
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 7/1/15 at 11:15 am to
quote:

That's a good deal for green

dunleavy got 3/14

There is no justification for AFA's deal


Value is relative, even for players.

Green likely had bigger offers. Dunleavy likely had bigger offers. They like their spots and will settle for less to stay where they are happy.

Portland is in a huge mess right now. It's probably Lillard, McCollum, and Leonard coming back from their rotation. They wanted Aminu badly. May be a bit much of a total commitment, but years 2-4 will bring them value barring utter catastrophe.
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