We track what we call Correlation to Victory each week and each season at CHFF Insider. And it tells us that teams with the higher passer rating -- what we call Passer Rating Differential -- consistently win more than 80 percent of all NFL games. And they win more often as the games get bigger and more important.
Teams with a higher passer rating:
• went 209-46 (.820) in 2012
• are an incredible 47-5 (.904) since Week 15
• went 4-0 (1.000) in the wild-card round
That brings us back to the Smith-Kaepernick debate. The 49ers have continued to win: they went 6-2-1 with Smith the starter; 5-2 with Kaepernick, highlighted by a 41-34 victory at New England. Conveniently, the 24-24 tie against the Rams was the game in which Smith suffered his concussion, opening the door for Kaepernick to take over the No. 1 job.
But the team's passing efficiency has in fact taken a step backward since Smith was benched.
• Smith: 70.2 percent, 8.0 YPA, 13 TD, 5 INT, 104.1 rating
• Kaepernick: 62.4 percent, 8.3 YPA, 10 TD, 3 INT, 98.3 rating
Kaepernick is a better commitment for the future, he simply has more potential, he's much more aggressive with his play.
Although I would be picking GB regardless of the QB for the niners
It's funny to me how last year people were saying the niners will never win it all with Smith and peaked by getting to the NFC title game. Now this year we're hearing it was mistake to sit him and may cost them the SB
Well wtf are they doing building for the future when they have a great shot to win a Super Bowl this year?
You play the younger guy with the ridiculously high ceiling still in his rookie contract over the 7th year guy in the final year of his contract