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re: Sagarin's ranking of the 16 BCS Champs

Posted on 1/13/14 at 1:54 pm to
Posted by trackfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
19691 posts
Posted on 1/13/14 at 1:54 pm to
FYI, here are Jeff Sagarin's composite rankings of both the winners and the losers of the 16 BCS Championship games:

Texas 2005 106.93
Miami 2001 106.36
Alabama 2011 104.17
USC 2004 103.37
Florida State 1999 102.07
Florida State 2013 101.9
Oklahoma 2000 101.63
Florida State 2000 100.34
LSU 2011 100.3
Alabama 2009 100.25
Alabama 2012 99.4
USC 2005 98.93
Florida 2008 98.74
Tennessee 1998 98.49
Auburn 2010 98.06
Florida State 1998 97.44
LSU 2003 97.43
Oregon 2010 96.98
Virginia Tech 1999 96.46
Florida 2006 96.18
Miami 2002 95.05
Oklahoma 2008 94.15
Ohio State 2006 93.88
LSU 2007 93.39
Ohio State 2002 93.26
Oklahoma 2003 92.88
Oklahoma 2004 92.6
Nebraska 2001 92.42
Texas 2009 92.39
Auburn 2013 91.76
Notre Dame 2012 91.08
Ohio State 2007 87.48
Posted by idlewatcher
County Jail
Member since Jan 2012
79361 posts
Posted on 1/13/14 at 4:39 pm to
quote:

2011 Bama (third place in SEC)*asterisk


Well played
Posted by trackfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
19691 posts
Posted on 1/13/14 at 4:55 pm to
Notice that LSU's 2011 team ranks ahead of nine of the 16 champions, including both LSU champions, and is the second highest loser on the list behind 2000 FSU.
Posted by RandySavage
Member since May 2012
30902 posts
Posted on 1/13/14 at 5:44 pm to
I'm curious how 2010 AU, who played the toughest schedule out of any team on that list, is the lowest ranked undefeated team?
Posted by trackfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
19691 posts
Posted on 1/13/14 at 6:08 pm to
Because they didn't play the toughest schedule despite what you want to believe, and because they had a lot of close wins against mediocre opponents. Notice that they're only one point of the Oregon team that they beat.
This post was edited on 1/13/14 at 6:10 pm
Posted by Benw225
Member since Feb 2013
944 posts
Posted on 1/13/14 at 6:13 pm to
Holy shite this list is awful!!!

For starters, Mack Brown getting to much butt love, Miami 01 would beat the shite out of texas.

The 07 team is understandable but why does the 03 team always get underrated? That was a damn good team and so was Auburn 10
Posted by JuiceTerry
Roond the Scheme
Member since Apr 2013
40868 posts
Posted on 1/13/14 at 6:17 pm to
quote:

why does the 03 team always get underrated?
Way below your 2nd Nationally team..
Posted by roygu
Member since Jan 2004
11718 posts
Posted on 1/13/14 at 8:02 pm to
In 2007 if Ohio St had beaten LSU, by identical scores, where do you think they would have been ranked. Undefeated and led the nation in defence.
Posted by RandySavage
Member since May 2012
30902 posts
Posted on 1/13/14 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

Because they didn't play the toughest schedule despite what you want to believe


5 of the top 15 teams in the country were in their own division and they beat the East champ twice and an undefeated team in the NC. 7 wins against teams that finished in the top 25 and would be top 20 if SC hadn't had to play us twice. Who else can even come close to that?

USC 2004 had a lot of close games against mediocre competition as well and played a much easier schedule yet look at their spot on the list.

Gonna need to do better...
This post was edited on 1/13/14 at 9:42 pm
Posted by Alahunter
Member since Jan 2008
90739 posts
Posted on 1/13/14 at 10:06 pm to
quote:

UNBIASED


Main problem with this, is Sagarin "modified" how he came up with his rankings several times.

Just this yr alone:

Apparently, Jeff Sagarin doesn't think his new and "improved version" of his new formula for the BCS to use is improved enough. He made a significant change to it again during the week, so now the data that appears on his site is very different than the data that was used by the BCS last week.

You may recall that last week, Sagarin introduced a new version of his Elo-based formulas. I wrote then that the column named "Elo Score," which is now described as including margin of victory, bore a very strong resemblance to the "Elo Chess" version it replaced, which Sagarin clamed did not contain MOV. Meanwhile, a new non-margin version called "Pure Elo" was introduced and would be the version the BCS would use.

However, those results were very counterintuitive. Seven FCS teams were in the top 25, led by Bethune-Cookman at No. 4. However, because of Sagarin's mid-week change, the Wildcats are now 67th, but still the top-rated FCS school. That's a pretty dramatic change.
Posted by Zamoro10
Member since Jul 2008
14743 posts
Posted on 1/13/14 at 10:21 pm to
These threads always turn into bitching and moaning and butthurt and pimping your own school and pushing bias.

As much talent as Miami 2001 had...I honestly don't know if I would pick them as my team to win any game among all the champs - if my life was on the line. That team was mentally iffy. They could brain fart the big game if their heart wasn't into it. Too many scrapes that year.

Despite losing one game - I'd probably go '08 Florida and Tebow...just edging out '04 USC "No Doubt" team - who also played with a similar chip on their shoulder and weren't going to be denied with Leinart/Bush. Followed by force of nature VY and '05 Texas and then '10 Auburn b/c of Cam.

These emotional things cannot be underestimated. '11 Bama could once again miss a bunch of FGs and screw the pooch. Whipping LSU given a 2nd chance doesn't impress me much...despite the talent on that team. They play too much as a team...and need everyone to play perfectly.

That's my Top 5 because I don't trust any other BCS winner...and I'm certainly not putting my life on the line with '02 Tressel-Ball - would have a heart attack just watching that "keep it close" to the end type of game by the sweater vest.
This post was edited on 1/13/14 at 10:22 pm
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164354 posts
Posted on 1/13/14 at 10:23 pm to
quote:

In 2007 if Ohio St had beaten LSU, by identical scores, where do you think they would have been ranked. Undefeated and led the nation in defence.

They lost to Illinois, chief. Also it's defense.
Posted by trackfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
19691 posts
Posted on 1/13/14 at 10:25 pm to
quote:

For starters, Mack Brown getting to much butt love, Miami 01 would beat the shite out of texas.

That 2001 Miami team may have been more talented than the 2005 Texas team, but they did have two close wins against mediocre opponents. The only close games that the Texas team had were the two that were supposed to be close. Sagarin's ratings justifiably take these sorts of things into consideration.
Posted by RLDSC FAN
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Member since Nov 2008
51718 posts
Posted on 1/13/14 at 10:26 pm to
quote:

As much talent as Miami 2001 had...I honestly don't know if I would pick them as my team to win any game among all the champs - if my life was on the line. That team was mentally iffy.


they're looked upon so highly because of how well so many of them have done in the pros. No one was calling them the greatest team of all time back in 01.
Posted by trackfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
19691 posts
Posted on 1/13/14 at 10:27 pm to
quote:

In 2007 if Ohio St had beaten LSU, by identical scores, where do you think they would have been ranked. Undefeated and led the nation in defence.

Ohio State wasn't undefeated in 2007, they were undefeated in 2006.
Posted by TexasTiger08
Member since Oct 2006
25534 posts
Posted on 1/14/14 at 12:31 am to
Agree with the recent posts about Miami.

The way VY's college career played out, it's tough to count the '05 Horns out against anybody. I am not saying they are number 1, but they are equally as deserving as '01 Miami.
Posted by iliveinabox
in a box
Member since Aug 2011
24115 posts
Posted on 1/14/14 at 2:55 am to
Poor 2011 lshoe...
Posted by trackfan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
19691 posts
Posted on 1/14/14 at 8:22 am to
quote:

5 of the top 15 teams in the country were in their own division and they beat the East champ twice and an undefeated team in the NC. 7 wins against teams that finished in the top 25 and would be top 20 if SC hadn't had to play us twice.

They also had games against an FCS school and two Sun Belt schools.
quote:

Who else can even come close to that?

Playing seven ranked teams isn't unusual for a team that plays a conference championship game and a BCS bowl, because what you're really talking about is five regular season games against ranked opponents.
quote:

USC 2004 had a lot of close games against mediocre competition as well and played a much easier schedule yet look at their spot on the list.

They did have three close games against mediocre opponents, but that's an argument for why they shouldn't be ranked high, not an argument for why Auburn should be ranked high. USC also had two blowout wins against top 10 opponents and unlike Auburn, they didn't play any FCS schools. Also, according to Sagarin, Auburn played the 13th toughest schedule in 2010 while USC played the 7th toughest schedule in 2004.
Posted by 632627
LA
Member since Dec 2011
12807 posts
Posted on 1/14/14 at 8:43 am to
quote:

they're looked upon so highly because of how well so many of them have done in the pros. No one was calling them the greatest team of all time back in 01.


this is largely true, but during that season, miami beat 2 top 20 teams back to back(syracuse and washington) by a combined score of about 130-14. there was chatter after that about miami potentially being an all time great team. In the 03 season, after oklahoma beat texas am by 70, there was talk of oklahoma being an all time great team. Obviously things didn't pan out for that OU team, while the performance of all those Miami 01 players in the NFL bolstered that argument.

I agree with Zamoro's statement, VY would have found a way to lead 05 texas over that miami team, and Carroll and Chow would have come up for a game plan for 04 SC to beat em as well.
Posted by dante
Kingwood, TX
Member since Mar 2006
10669 posts
Posted on 1/14/14 at 8:54 am to
If Bama 2011 is #3, does that mean had LSU played OSU and won in 2011 they would have possibly been #1? They would have beaten the Pac 12, Big East and Big 12 champions all in the same season.

I know.....get over it.
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