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re: Official Week 5 College Football Bet Thread

Posted on 9/28/15 at 12:49 pm to
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32021 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 12:49 pm to
locked in nd +1
vandy +2

and idgaf!
Posted by LSUShock
Kansas
Member since Jun 2014
4915 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 12:54 pm to
Just checked sports insights. Each one of those 3 is down a few points from their original line . May have to fade my own picks if everyone jumped on the horse that quickly.

That ND/CLEM game has me confused. Haven't seen either team play much, but have been very underwhelmed with both in the games I did watch.
Posted by LSUShock
Kansas
Member since Jun 2014
4915 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 12:55 pm to
Vandy is getting no respect. +27 last week was a steal.

Also, 81% of the bets on Oregon, but the spread has moved from -12 to -9.5. Interesting.
This post was edited on 9/28/15 at 12:58 pm
Posted by maclauer
Member since Nov 2011
4765 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 1:01 pm to
[quote]Vandy is getting no respect.quote]
Isn't the public all over Vandy?
Posted by thibtigerfan
Thibodaux
Member since Aug 2006
2460 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 1:02 pm to
Any insight on the Michigan line?
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25277 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 1:04 pm to
Clemson and ND now a PK on the board.

Bettors love them some ND
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32021 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 1:09 pm to
im playing square on vandy and nd this week! F it
Posted by accnodefense
Trump Fan
Member since Dec 2010
6279 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 1:43 pm to
Week 4 Model Results

Sides

Method 1: 27-22
Method 2: 28-24
Method 3: 27-23
Method 4: 25-26
Method 5: 25-26

Totals

Method 1: 31-19
Method 2: 28-24
Method 3: 29-22
Method 4: 25-26
Method 5: 25-26

Year to Date

Sides

Method 1: 88-93
Method 2: 101-85
Method 3: 89-96
Method 4: 90-96
Method 5: 89-97

Totals

Method 1: 103-80
Method 2: 89-98
Method 3: 99-89
Method 4: 90-98
Method 5: 99-89

Sweet Spots

Method 1, Dogs +7 to +14: 38-18
Method 2, Dogs +7 to +14: 50-28
Method 5, Dogs +7 to +14: 40-16
Method 2 Road Teams: 62-47

Method 1, Unders: 63-44
Method 1, Totals over 56: 69-54
Method 1, Unders on Totals Over 56: 39-21
Method 2, Unders on Total Over 56: 58-45
Method 5, Unders: 55-42
Method 5, Unders on Totals Over 56: 29-19
Posted by FulshearTiger
Member since Jul 2015
5276 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 1:48 pm to
About to lock in Mississippi State +7.5.

Probably going to be playing UGA at home and I like Lorida getting 7.5 at home.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
73596 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 1:55 pm to
Whats the sheet saying about Miss St

Shoulda followed with W Virginia.

I hate ASU.

Posted by profwilson
Member since Jul 2004
867 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 1:57 pm to
2-2 so far this year on 3-team, 10-point teasers. Looked good last week with TCU and Texas A&M, but Oregon completely blew it in the nightcap.

This week's play:

Kent State -0.5
Alabama +12
New Mexico -2.5

Any thoughts?
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83462 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 1:59 pm to
Which method holds the most weight for you when picking your games each week? Does it change from week to week?
Posted by Chicagoland Tiger
North Scottsdale
Member since Feb 2011
305 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 2:06 pm to
I locked in Clemson at a PK
Posted by kkhere
Member since Nov 2009
428 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 2:10 pm to
Locked in the following this morning:

Texas +17.5 vs TCU
BC +6 vs Duke
Miss St. +7 vs A&M
Clemson pk vs ND
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83462 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 2:10 pm to
So ND hasn't played a team....who has a win against a power 5 conference team. Am I looking too much into that, or is that pretty crazy?
Posted by AbuTheMonkey
Chicago, IL
Member since May 2014
8003 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 2:19 pm to
quote:

So ND hasn't played a team....who has a win against a power 5 conference team. Am I looking too much into that, or is that pretty crazy?


Neither has Clemson
Posted by ReauxlTide222
St. Petersburg
Member since Nov 2010
83462 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 2:22 pm to
It's early, I guess that's the reason.
Posted by bayoujd
Member since Jan 2009
2775 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 2:24 pm to
Neither has Bama. The reason is that many teams have played soft schedules for the most part. ND has actually played more power 5 teams than anyone - Texas, UVA and Ga Tech. Problem is those 3 teams are struggling.
This post was edited on 9/28/15 at 2:25 pm
Posted by accnodefense
Trump Fan
Member since Dec 2010
6279 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 2:37 pm to
quote:

Whats the sheet saying about Miss St


Ran it last night and nothing stood out to where I remember it

I want to say slight lean to Mississippi State. I think it predicted A&M wins 31-27?
Posted by accnodefense
Trump Fan
Member since Dec 2010
6279 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 2:38 pm to
quote:

Which method holds the most weight for you when picking your games each week? Does it change from week to week?


In the past, Method 2 is more successful in the first half of the year, while Method 1 is the most successful in the 2nd half of the season

Methods 4 and 5 are new for this year. I see Method 4 following the trajectory of Method 2, and Method 5 being more similar to Method 1.

Starting Week 8 or so I am really going to ride Methods 1 & 5.
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