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re: Official Week 5 College Football Bet Thread

Posted on 9/27/15 at 11:03 pm to
Posted by accnodefense
Trump Fan
Member since Dec 2010
6279 posts
Posted on 9/27/15 at 11:03 pm to
Liked these 7 enough to lock them in tonight:



I think Cincy will be closer to 2.5-3 at game time. Not sold on Miami... FAU could have beaten them had their QB not been knocked out.

Illinois will definatley be at 7 or lower come game time.

Charlotte should be on auto fade against any team in the upper half of FBS, which is why I am on Temple

NC State line will be closer to 7 come gametime

Oregon shouldn't be laying 10.5 with their defense to anyone. Colorado has momentum, at home, and I just like the number. 9.5-10.5 dogs have done well this year

I think this is Clemson's statement game. Notre Dame's only road game was a houdini against Virginia. Clemson lot better than Virginia. Line will be 4 or higher at game time

On San Diego State because I have Fresno State on auto fade.
Posted by HoLeInOnEr05
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16833 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 12:00 am to
Charlotte Team Total under
Posted by BeYou
DFW
Member since Oct 2012
6022 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 12:50 am to
quote:

Sounds weird, but if its anything under 90, I'm probably gonna take it


Don't blame you. Baylor and Tech games are always close games. In the last 6 years the game has been decided by 7 points in 4 of those games. Here are the totals from the past few years. Only thing I would caution is keeping an eye on an injury update on Mahomes. He tweaked his left knee in the TCU game and was suppose to have an MRI on it.


2014: 94
2013: 97
2012: 97
2011: 108
2010: 83
2009: 33 lol
Posted by KamaCausey_LSU
Member since Apr 2013
14460 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 2:12 am to
Two things I have learned as a beginner bettor this year.

1. Bet against Old Dominion
2. Bet against Charlotte
Posted by JG77056
Vegas baby, Vegas
Member since Sep 2010
12059 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 3:07 am to
Will Kiehl play for Cincy?
Posted by rawDAWG333
Knoxville
Member since Nov 2012
1712 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 3:22 am to
quote:

Will Kiehl play for cincy?


I doubt he will play. The backup looked pretty good when he came in, he had like 500 yards passing. It doesn't really matter who's playing qb for them that offense is going to rack up a lot of yards and points.
Posted by JG77056
Vegas baby, Vegas
Member since Sep 2010
12059 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 6:16 am to
So far at first glance only Northwestern, Wisconsin, western Kentucky, georgia Southern and Duke stick out to me.
Posted by maclauer
Member since Nov 2011
4765 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 6:27 am to
quote:

Liked these 7 enough to lock them in tonight:


Like Cincy and Colorado.Clemson looks like they will be heavily backed by the public at that number with Vegas giving them the hook.

And that's a lot of points to lay with an atrocious SDSU offense. One could argue that SDSU should be on auto fade, considering they haven't won or covered yet.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 8:27 am to
quote:

Clemson looks like they will be heavily backed by the public at that number with Vegas giving them the hook.


indeed, this appears to be the bait line of the week.
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25269 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 8:29 am to
Ball St. +9 at home vs. Toledo seems great.
Posted by accnodefense
Trump Fan
Member since Dec 2010
6279 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 11:05 am to
I thought Clemson was a trap at first too, but my model has them as a 14 point winner so I figured anything under 3 is a good number.
Posted by accnodefense
Trump Fan
Member since Dec 2010
6279 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 11:06 am to
quote:

And that's a lot of points to lay with an atrocious SDSU offense. One could argue that SDSU should be on auto fade, considering they haven't won or covered yet.


SDSU is bad but on the flipside you have Fresno State who might have the worst defense in FBS. They haven't stopped anyone yet. Something has to give so I trusted my model on this one
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32015 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 11:21 am to
quote:

Cincy will be closer to 2.5-3


already at 6 in my book today

clemson is down to a 1 and a pickem in several books

you jumped the gun
Posted by accnodefense
Trump Fan
Member since Dec 2010
6279 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 12:23 pm to
quote:

already at 6 in my book today clemson is down to a 1 and a pickem in several books


Sheeeiiit

I am terrible at predicting line movement
Posted by DollaChoppa
I Simp for ACC
Member since May 2008
84774 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 12:30 pm to
quote:

NC State line will be closer to 7 come gametime


State is 4-0 covering this year. Been undervalued. Good offense.

09/05 Troy W 49-21 -26.0
09/12 E Kentucky W 35-0 -24.0
09/19 Old Dominion W 38-14 -17.0
09/26 S Alabama W 63-13 -17.5
Posted by AbuTheMonkey
Chicago, IL
Member since May 2014
7994 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 12:31 pm to
quote:

Like Cincy and Colorado.Clemson looks like they will be heavily backed by the public at that number with Vegas giving them the hook


Looks like the opposite happened - jumped back to a pick 'em in a lot of places with a quickness.

I've seen both teams live this year. It should be a close game...Clemson is going to have problems stopping ND's running game. If Watson plays well, there will be holes in ND's secondary. He didn't look very good in the game I saw him, but he is talented enough to turn it around.

I think ND is just a little better up front on both sides of the ball, and that makes the difference. Something like 28 - 24.
Posted by accnodefense
Trump Fan
Member since Dec 2010
6279 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

State is 4-0 covering this year. Been undervalued. Good offense.


That's a Baylor-like schedule. It's like a bottom feeder tour of the South East.

I knew this already, I think NC State gets exposed eventually, but not against Louisville
Posted by LSUShock
Kansas
Member since Jun 2014
4911 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 12:37 pm to
At first glance, things that interested me.

Minnesota +5
Iowa +6.5
Alabama ML
Oregon -9.5
Miss St +7
Texas +15.5

Posted by accnodefense
Trump Fan
Member since Dec 2010
6279 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

Minnesota +5 Iowa +6.5 Alabama ML Oregon -9.5 Miss St +7 Texas +15.5


You missed the boat on Minnesota, Iowa, Texas
Posted by LSUShock
Kansas
Member since Jun 2014
4911 posts
Posted on 9/28/15 at 12:48 pm to
My lines just came out, didn't even see what they were at before.
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