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Message
re: Official Week 5 College Football Bet Thread
Posted on 9/29/15 at 1:10 am to SirWinston
Posted on 9/29/15 at 1:10 am to SirWinston
Why you like app state? Kinda like Marshall too
1
Posted on 9/29/15 at 2:22 am to bloupe2
App St avgs over 300 yds per on the ground. Wyoming has a very porous run defense. Not to mention, this is App's first game back at The Rock since Labor Day weekend.
Posted on 9/29/15 at 2:41 am to bloupe2
Games I'm thinking about:
Miami-6 (I'll want some thursday night action)
Ole Miss-7 and ML
UTSA-4
Arkansas ML
Bama ML
Louisville +4 or ML
Minnesota+5 or ML
Michigan st.-21.5
tOSU-21
Auburn-20 (c'mon man!)
GT-7
I should prolly do a bit of research on these two, but they look okay:
Houston
ECU
Wash St.
My guy doesn't take plays until two days before the game, so hopefully I don't fall victim to any adverse line movement.
Miami-6 (I'll want some thursday night action)
Ole Miss-7 and ML
UTSA-4
Arkansas ML
Bama ML
Louisville +4 or ML
Minnesota+5 or ML
Michigan st.-21.5
tOSU-21
Auburn-20 (c'mon man!)
GT-7
I should prolly do a bit of research on these two, but they look okay:
Houston
ECU
Wash St.
My guy doesn't take plays until two days before the game, so hopefully I don't fall victim to any adverse line movement.
Posted on 9/29/15 at 4:57 am to SystemsGo
Just locked app St and Marshall in two team teaser
Posted on 9/29/15 at 8:10 am to bloupe2
Early leans are C Mich, ULM, and Colorado.
Posted on 9/29/15 at 9:33 am to ChemE in the OP
Cincinnati, Georgia, and Colorado will definitely be plays. Said week 2 that the Richt script was to sleepwalk vs Vandy, crush SC, beat Bama, then lose at Tennessee. So good, so far.
Also liking MTSU, Arizona State, and NCSt.
Also liking MTSU, Arizona State, and NCSt.
Posted on 9/29/15 at 11:06 am to maclauer
Last Week
Posted on 9/29/15 at 11:27 am to accnodefense
Week 5 plays... I know its a lot, but its pretty much all model plays. My model is picking dogs between +7 and +14 at a 72% clip and unders with totals at 56 or higher at a 66% clip so why not ride it.
Also my model has ODU/Marshall going over 96% of the time, Texas Tech/Baylor 89.1% going over of the time, and New Mexico State/New Mexico going over 81.4% of the time, NC State covering 77.2% of the time, and Marshall covering 80.1% of the time. My model giving 76% or higher chances of hitting is 18-8 (69%) on the year and over 81% chance are 10-2 (83%) on the year so I am riding those too.
Also my model has ODU/Marshall going over 96% of the time, Texas Tech/Baylor 89.1% going over of the time, and New Mexico State/New Mexico going over 81.4% of the time, NC State covering 77.2% of the time, and Marshall covering 80.1% of the time. My model giving 76% or higher chances of hitting is 18-8 (69%) on the year and over 81% chance are 10-2 (83%) on the year so I am riding those too.
Posted on 9/29/15 at 12:28 pm to accnodefense
What. The. frick
Posted on 9/29/15 at 1:27 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
Looking like Central Michigan and Colorado will be my two plays of the week... We'll watch the lines.
Posted on 9/29/15 at 1:44 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Looking like Central Michigan and Colorado will be my two plays of the week... We'll watch the lines.
Colorado continues to lose value. I'm hoping for a public push back up.
When it was at 8 I was hoping for 8.5, but it's dropped to 7 at some of the sharper books. An expensive +7.5 (-120) on 5D right now.
Posted on 9/29/15 at 1:49 pm to ChemE in the OP
Curious to hear the board's opinion on Colorado. Last week was the first week I didn't make a play on them(2-1 this year). I think they're greatly improved from the past few years and have a good enough ground game to grind some games out. Seems they're still getting decent numbers while basically still being a complete unknown to most.
My book has them at +8 against the Ducks currently and I'm pretty hesitant to follow them again. Are most of you guys on them this week fading the public or are you seeing something in your numbers? I think I might have just missed the boat too if some people got them at +10. Just curious
My book has them at +8 against the Ducks currently and I'm pretty hesitant to follow them again. Are most of you guys on them this week fading the public or are you seeing something in your numbers? I think I might have just missed the boat too if some people got them at +10. Just curious
Posted on 9/29/15 at 1:51 pm to accnodefense
ACC,
Are all those plays +77% off your model?
Are all those plays +77% off your model?
Posted on 9/29/15 at 2:09 pm to bstew3006
quote:
ACC, Are all those plays +77% off your model?
I know it seems like a lot of plays, it is, but I follow a guy on another board who is a strict model player and he plays a shitload of games every week and does well. He just trusts his system. This week I am letting it ride on my model, but Murphy's Law says this is the week I get buried due to model variance.
Here are my model plays this week:
76% sides: Marshall & NC State
80% totals: ODU/Marshall Over, Texas Tech/Baylor Over, New Mexico State/New Mexico Over.
+7 to +14 Dog Plays: Illinois, Colorado, Buffalo, Florida, Kansas State, South Florida, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Rice
Total > 57 Under Plays: ULL/Louisiana Tech Under, Mississippi State/A&M Under, West Virginia/Oklahoma Under, Arizona State/UCLA Under, Arkansas/Tennessee Under
Non-Model Plays
San Diego State -11 & Temple -24: Because I have Fresno & Charlotte on Auto-Fade
Cincinnati +4.5: Thursday Night dog play
Clemson -2.5: Liked anything under 3 for Clemson
Connecticut +18.5: BYU regressing to the mean play
UL Monroe +6: UL Monroe solved Georgia Southern's offense last year, plays well against the run.
Michigan State -21.5: The .5 hook on this line means books are begging for Purdue action. Love the number here for MSU
Middle Tennessee -1: Vanderbilt was the honey pot of the week at +4, now they are at +1 or PK and you can get MTSU at an even better number.
Washington State +19.5: California's first test against a team who can actually throw the ball. Washington State matches up well in this one, like the number. Like Washington State anything over 14 in this game.
Excel Sheets of my model sweetspots so far:
Posted on 9/29/15 at 4:21 pm to accnodefense
Be careful with games in the northeast. Looks like a ton of rain headed there this week. May still be there for Saturday 
Posted on 9/29/15 at 4:32 pm to LSUJuice
8-17-1(disgusting)
UNLV+7.5
Bay -16
UNLV+7.5
Bay -16
Posted on 9/29/15 at 5:38 pm to PeteRose
Talk to me bout Vandy. Why won't they beat MTSU?
MTSU is feisty? Vandy bad? Coming off a tough loss in a big game?
MTSU is feisty? Vandy bad? Coming off a tough loss in a big game?
This post was edited on 9/29/15 at 5:40 pm
Posted on 9/29/15 at 6:21 pm to accnodefense
Accno whats the % on Florida covering?
Posted on 9/29/15 at 7:01 pm to DFWAggie09
quote:
Curious to hear the board's opinion on Colorado. Last week was the first week I didn't make a play on them(2-1 this year). I think they're greatly improved from the past few years and have a good enough ground game to grind some games out. Seems they're still getting decent numbers while basically still being a complete unknown to most.
My book has them at +8 against the Ducks currently and I'm pretty hesitant to follow them again. Are most of you guys on them this week fading the public or are you seeing something in your numbers? I think I might have just missed the boat too if some people got them at +10. Just curious
I only watched CU play Hawaii and they had no down field pass attack. It was a really poor performance. They had a close win over CSU but that is a CSU that is gutted.
Of course, Oregon's secondary might make CU look explosive. Oregon has some real confidence issues - the team looks like a deer in headlights.
I would personally stay away from the game and confidence should be low where the line sits.
I am 3-1 ATS with Oregon. I was really wrong on the last game though.
I would take Oregon +8 but wouldn't feel confident above 10.
This post was edited on 9/29/15 at 7:05 pm
Posted on 9/29/15 at 7:33 pm to dcrews
Locked in.
Alabama +2-110
Mississippi State +7 -115
Florida +7½ -110
Western Kentucky -7½ -105
Arkansas +6½ -105
Vanderbilt +1 -110
Georgia Tech-7
Alabama +2-110
Mississippi State +7 -115
Florida +7½ -110
Western Kentucky -7½ -105
Arkansas +6½ -105
Vanderbilt +1 -110
Georgia Tech-7
This post was edited on 9/29/15 at 7:51 pm
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