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Started By
Message
re: Oil stocks...are you buying?
Posted on 2/3/16 at 4:54 pm to FunroePete
Posted on 2/3/16 at 4:54 pm to FunroePete
quote:
I thought utwi is essentially a stock that's 3x whatever the change in oil is. Is it purely an oil futures stock that's at 3x?
What made it go up today?
You thought right, but must be looking at yesterdays oil prices? Oil is up over 9% now dude.
2
Posted on 2/3/16 at 5:51 pm to TigerDeBaiter
Big rally today ,made up for the losses this week already
Posted on 2/3/16 at 6:13 pm to TigerDeBaiter
quote:
You thought right, but must be looking at yesterdays oil prices? Oil is up over 9% now dude.
You're right. I was looking at rigzones sidebar for prices and I think they update once a day after the market closes.
Posted on 2/3/16 at 6:17 pm to LSUneaux
When oil hits $20 im in.
Posted on 2/4/16 at 9:06 am to LSUneaux
quote:
What a roller coaster! I managed to sell COP for a teeny tiny profit. I really think it will be red tomorrow after earnings and I'm sure a retreat in oil prices after today's 8% gain.
And here's the plunge. I'm holding tight this morning, then looking for a lunch time reentry.
EDIT: back in $36.70. That's 5% down on the day, so I took it. I wanted to get greedy and see how much lower it would go, but a 5% drop is too good considering the irrational swings on today's chart alone.
This post was edited on 2/4/16 at 10:41 am
Posted on 2/4/16 at 11:30 am to LSUneaux
And I underestimated how shitty the market is right now.
Posted on 2/4/16 at 12:06 pm to LSUneaux
FML For thinking I should buy when it was down 5% bc I didn't want to get greedy. 9%!!
Posted on 2/4/16 at 1:09 pm to WiscyTiger
quote:
quote:
The world population is growing and developing at a crazy rate.
quote:
Any data to back this up? China seems to indicate otherwise.
Global population is growing at an exponential rate baw... and yes more people = burning up more oil. Demand will go up and prices will go up in time.
quote:
world human population... As of July 2015, it was estimated at 7.3 billion.[1] The United Nations estimates it will increase to 11.2 billion in the year 2100.[1]
FYI that's less than 1%/yr growth. Actually it's a 0.50% CAGR. Also population growth does not equate to oil demand growth, as gasoline consumption is not a linear relationship with population. Africa is growing in population, do you think they're filling up there cars with gasoline on a 1:1 basis?
This post was edited on 2/4/16 at 1:11 pm
Posted on 2/4/16 at 1:15 pm to LSUneaux
quote:
FML For thinking I should buy when it was down 5% bc I didn't want to get greedy. 9%!!
Falling knife. LOL
Posted on 2/5/16 at 4:16 am to LSU1NSEC
Is there a consensus on if it will take another drop or if that was the bottom a couple of weeks ago? I am not understanding this rally, reports keep showing higher surpluses and weakening economies but energy stocks keep rising.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 6:07 am to GREENHEAD22
Isn't the dollar losing strength? That can make up a lot of difference alone.
This post was edited on 2/5/16 at 6:08 am
Posted on 2/5/16 at 6:20 am to I Love Bama
I'm not saying I agree with this, but read through it, forget the source, and pay attention to the methodology used. It is not unlike when natural gas was devastated and everyone said we would never work our way out of the glut. So no one really knows.
LINK /
Here's my take. Every time an asset class turns bearish, and always after the fact, analysts jump on the bear bandwagon. So I start to look for minority opinions, or the contrarian view. At some point some of the predictions slowly come to fruition. And then I try to make a move.
So what I know is this. The glut is probably over exaggerated. I don't know how much, and I don't know if this guy's take on it is correct. But I merely Google search this guy for any additional articles occasionally. Because if he's correct, he'll come back to write another article to take credit for being right. Almost always, and almost immediately upon anything he writes being correct.
I also tend to pay attention to Pickens. Because he makes predictions all the time, and when he is wrong (which he has been a lot lately) he actually comes back and admits he was wrong. Very few of the "expert" admit they're wrong ever. It's like the guys on here that talk about great trades, but never post a trade that goes south on them. They just aren't credible to me. Because I tend to live in reality.
LINK /
Here's my take. Every time an asset class turns bearish, and always after the fact, analysts jump on the bear bandwagon. So I start to look for minority opinions, or the contrarian view. At some point some of the predictions slowly come to fruition. And then I try to make a move.
So what I know is this. The glut is probably over exaggerated. I don't know how much, and I don't know if this guy's take on it is correct. But I merely Google search this guy for any additional articles occasionally. Because if he's correct, he'll come back to write another article to take credit for being right. Almost always, and almost immediately upon anything he writes being correct.
I also tend to pay attention to Pickens. Because he makes predictions all the time, and when he is wrong (which he has been a lot lately) he actually comes back and admits he was wrong. Very few of the "expert" admit they're wrong ever. It's like the guys on here that talk about great trades, but never post a trade that goes south on them. They just aren't credible to me. Because I tend to live in reality.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 7:49 am to Iowa Golfer
This is probably stupid, but I'm going to buy WTI December 2024, at 51ish. Or I'm going to do some sort of spread option trade on it. I don't really trade futures, but I have a managed futures account that I try to use as a hedge, so I'm going to talk to my guys in Chicago
within the next week or so to make sure I fully understand maximum loss.
I'm just going to wait, and I understand I might need to feed margin on this for quite a while. But basically it's $51K for 1000 barrels as I understand it, and I'm going to feed the margin becuase I think 2024 is long enough.
I'm not looking at implied value, deterioration, charts, fundamentals. I'm placing a pure bet that I can sell above 51 sometime between now and expiration.
within the next week or so to make sure I fully understand maximum loss.
I'm just going to wait, and I understand I might need to feed margin on this for quite a while. But basically it's $51K for 1000 barrels as I understand it, and I'm going to feed the margin becuase I think 2024 is long enough.
I'm not looking at implied value, deterioration, charts, fundamentals. I'm placing a pure bet that I can sell above 51 sometime between now and expiration.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 8:04 am to Iowa Golfer
Won't the premium be pretty high since the expiration is so far away?
Posted on 2/5/16 at 8:22 am to Grits N Shrimp
I think premium on the options will be high, and that's what the advisors will likely tell me. The $51 per barrel already has the premium built in unless I'm missing something.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 8:29 am to Iowa Golfer
But you still stand to make a good chunk or you wouldn't be doing it...?
Posted on 2/5/16 at 8:33 am to Grits N Shrimp
Linn energy down 60% today.. Ouch!
Posted on 2/5/16 at 8:40 am to GREENHEAD22
quote:
Is there a consensus on if it will take another drop or if that was the bottom a couple of weeks ago? I am not understanding this rally, reports keep showing higher surpluses and weakening economies but energy stocks keep rising.
Sorry, didn't see your post. Not sure there's consensus right now. Lot of different projections from what I'm seeing.
I'm looking at the moving averages on oil stocks right now. Looks risky still from that viewpoint.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 8:42 am to Grits N Shrimp
quote:
But you still stand to make a good chunk or you wouldn't be doing it...?
Maybe. There's a lot I need to talk over, maybe buy 2017 oil for $41, or 2018 oil at $45 or $46.
All I'm doing is placing a bet that oil between when buy and expiration breaches the strike price. Actually a lot of times it doesn't need to breach the price, it just needs to get close, or start making a movement to getting close. Margin calls prevent a lot of people from going this far out. Other reasons as well, the premium being one large reason. Others will bet maybe $45 oil at the end of 2017 and get stopped out. I don't have most of that to worry about.
Posted on 2/5/16 at 9:25 am to Iowa Golfer
Anyone have any insight on FLT? Not an oil company but related.
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