BOIL has become predictable | Page 4 | TigerDroppings.com
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Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2229 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable

UNG down in premarket, placed order for Feb 24-28 bull call spread for a buck.

I didn't get the July bear puts as low as I could have, but I would expect this trade to deteriorate all through the winter and spring anyway.

The weeklies always have Friday expiration. Interesting for those that watch the Thursday reports.




Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2229 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Strange reaction with respect to the pricing of the tracking ETF's to the supply.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17242 posts
Online

re: BOIL has become predictable
Yes.......very much so


slackster
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
7158 posts
Online

re: BOIL has become predictable
Yeah interesting movement. Luckily I'm on the right side today.


TheBigHurt
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
675 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I've continued to buy KOLD. Cost basis now at $46. Unbelievable how it reached 36 and change.


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17242 posts
Online

re: BOIL has become predictable
Ridiculous I took my wifes 401k and bought and got her 1000 @ 37 shares she made more today than all of last quarter. hahaha
This post was edited on 1/30 at 2:57 pm


slackster
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
7158 posts
Online

re: BOIL has become predictable
Impressive 401k if you can buy leveraged ETFs in it. I'd imagine you meant her IRA, no?


L S Usetheforce
New Orleans Saints Fan
College Station
Member since Jun 2004
17242 posts
Online

re: BOIL has become predictable
Sorry 401k rollover to fidelity.


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sneakytiger
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2007
1474 posts
Online

re: BOIL has become predictable
What's the cheapest July 14 puts to load up on today? 25's look promising?


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2229 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
At this point I'm considering $20 puts given how cheap they seem to be. UNG, bot BOIL. I don't like what BOIL owns, and sure don't like their pricey options. Selling some $60 July calls could prove exciting though.


NOTORlOUSD
Georgia Tech Fan
Houston, TX
Member since Sep 2010
4811 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I'm looking at shorting natural gas (using an ETF) in anticipation of it dropping $0.50 or more in the next two months. Should I go with KOLD, DGAZ, or something else?


PropofoLSU
LSU Fan
College Station, TX
Member since Aug 2013
372 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
You are apparently about 2 weeks too late.......maybe wait till midweek to see what happens

I bought 2000 shares of Kold at 37.46 two weeks ago.........

DGAZ is a 3x multiplier and way more risky but if you want a short jump thats probably your play if you like to gamble.
This post was edited on 2/10 at 9:37 am


TheBigHurt
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
675 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
We should see a dip in KOLD (Double short Nat Gas) and DGAZ (Triple short Nat Gas) this afternoon or tomorrow morning due to winter storm. I believe you are in a good entry point anywhere below $40 for KOLD and below $3 for DGAZ. Once it warms up and less gas is used for heating, supply should catch up with demand and we should see profits. I'm pretty heavy in KOLD and have dollar cost average down to $46. Interested in buying some DGAZ if it gets below $3 target.


NOTORlOUSD
Georgia Tech Fan
Houston, TX
Member since Sep 2010
4811 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I feel like the market has already factored in the cold snap tomorrow and views warming temps later in the week as the light at the end of the tunnel. A major cold snap in late Feb or early March would be needed to send it back up.

I was originally planning to wait until tomorrow or Wednesday, but I decided to jump on DGAZ this morning at 4.21. It has jumped 10% since then!

I'm trying to decide now how tight to keep my stop order.


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2229 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I think the market has priced in contango and backwardation of the holdings of both BOIL and UNG. BOIL and UNG are only what they own, and they don't own natural gas. They own futures. Specifically BOIL which owns out to April. I've never understood the infatuation with BOIL this late in the winter due this this alone. At least UNG only owns next months contracts.

My February UNG bull call spread will likely not be as profitable due to this. My July UNG bear put spread still has a chance to make decent money.

You guys do what you want, but both BOIL and UNG are really designed for day trades, and I'd not ever own the paper long term.



sneakytiger
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2007
1474 posts
Online

re: BOIL has become predictable
What are you holding on the other side of your July 14 bear put spread trade?


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2229 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
quote:

What are you holding on the other side of your July 14 bear put spread trade?


I'm not sure what you're asking me here?


sneakytiger
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2007
1474 posts
Online

re: BOIL has become predictable
You said you bought July puts, so what did you sell? Maybe I misinterpreted your term "spread trade".


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2229 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
quote:

You said you bought July puts, so what did you sell? Maybe I misinterpreted your term "spread trade".


Sold 18, bought 20 & 23 in unequal amounts.


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5 Deep
USA Fan
Houston
Member since Jul 2010
908 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
quote:

I bought 2000 shares of Kold at 37.46 two weeks ago.........


I got in right around 35 but only bought a few shares. when do you plan on selling, PropofoLSU?


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