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PropofoLSU
LSU Fan
College Station, TX
Member since Aug 2013
372 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable

In late June early July.


Bush Hog
Nicholls St. Fan
Lafourche
Member since Aug 2012
130 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Is KOLD a good buy now at $45?


PropofoLSU
LSU Fan
College Station, TX
Member since Aug 2013
372 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I wouldn't consider it a great buy...........good buy sure..........


TheBigHurt
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
691 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
DGAZ currently trading at $4.00. Where is the bottom? Looking for a place to dive in....


TheBigHurt
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
691 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
$3.86 and still watching...


slackster
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
7631 posts
Online

re: BOIL has become predictable
I picked up another 500 shares @ $3.85 today. Currently have 2000 shares @ $3.942 cost basis.


TheBigHurt
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
691 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
DGAZ at $3.70. With warm weather ahead, I think it is time to jump in.


I Love Bama
Alabama Fan
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
34137 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
quote:

DGAZ at $3.70. With warm weather ahead, I think it is time to jump in.


Can you tell me why? Explain like I am a 4 year old.


TheBigHurt
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
691 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Heaters run off of natural gas. Due to colder than expected Winter, the U.S. has dipped hard into our storage causing nat gas prices to rise. A/C's run off of electricity. U.S. produces an abundant amount of nat gas. With warmer weather the price will come down. Profit

Simple supply and demand issue. Last April DGAZ hit 22ish.


I Love Bama
Alabama Fan
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
34137 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
So is this traded just like a stock? I've got a lot of cash in my Roth. I may jump in with you guys.

So if you think Natural gas will come down, you buy this stock?
This post was edited on 2/13 at 10:47 am


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TigeRoots
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Oct 2008
3954 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
quote:

Heaters run off of natural gas. Due to colder than expected Winter, the U.S. has dipped hard into our storage causing nat gas prices to rise. A/C's run off of electricity. U.S. produces an abundant amount of nat gas. With warmer weather the price will come down. Profit

Simple supply and demand issue. Last April DGAZ hit 22ish.



All of that makes sense to me, but I'm still somewhat skeptical. If it was that simple, wouldn't everybody be doing it? Where does the risk lie?


TheBigHurt
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
691 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I would definitely buy within a qualified account (Roth, Ind. IRA, Etc.) because of the tax consequences associated with this ETF.


Iowa Golfer
Iowa Fan
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
2907 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
DGAZ held long term isn't really a good idea most times. It is mostly designed for day trading. It actually has to disclose this. Due to what they own, backwardation and contango apply big time.

These guys, at least as I understand it, are buying actual shares of DGAZ, and waiting for natty gas prices to fall, consequently meaning an increase in DGAZ share price.

This doesn't always happen due to the above. See UNG and BOIL recently. As it gets closer to expiry and contract dates, the price almost always comes dead even with spot, and the contract driven ETF's, who own outward contracts, don't always follow.

DGAZ will eat upon itself also. I believe it is an ETN, not an ETF. It is similar to VXX in this regard.

You'd be better off in my estimation buying puts.


TheBigHurt
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
691 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
If we were to start exporting nat gas it would raise concern for me. It would drive up the price if it was on a large enough scale.


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I Love Bama
Alabama Fan
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
34137 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
So when I am buying DGAZ, I am losing time value if I hold? Similar to options?


TheBigHurt
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
691 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Iowa Golfer, your right I meant to say ETN for DGAZ. The ETF I am playing with is KOLD...


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TheBigHurt
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
691 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I am sure there are fee's involved. I just like the opportunity to get in at 3.70 with warm weather ahead. Heck it's already up to 3.78.


TigeRoots
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Oct 2008
3954 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
I was thinking more of a buy now, sell around April/May, so definitely not what I consider a long term hold. I guess my concern is what could go wrong between now and then with this trade (assuming the weather warms up). Thanks for the advice.


TheBigHurt
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
691 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
Heck, NOTORIOUSD was bragging on Monday about making 10% after diving in at 4.21... I hope he had a tight stop loss...


TigeRoots
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Oct 2008
3954 posts

re: BOIL has become predictable
quote:

I am sure there are fee's involved. I just like the opportunity to get in at 3.70 with warm weather ahead. Heck it's already up to 3.78.


Damn I left the office for lunch and it was at $3.69 and I told myself I would get in after lunch. Of course it goes up in that time period!


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