re: Anyone else currently sitting on the sideline in the stock market?

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Considering how the market is doing today, I thought I'd bring this back up from last Tuesday. I think we're looking at a bounce if Trump wins and a reversal if HRC wins tomorrow.

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Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but you think the market will bounce up if Trump wins? What's giving you that indication, I've thought the opposite all along. Wall Street seems to be heavily on Hillary's side. If she gets elected it would seem to create less immediate volatility in the market since her policies align very similarly to the current regime.

Not trying to turn this into the political board, just curious behind your reasoning of a bounce if Trump wins.

If things hold, this trade could end up even better than it already has. Stock futures down over 500.

If it holds, I'll still be bitter as a large part of the trade is already booked. That's emotion. It's tough to fight. Not as tough as it was to go as large as I went on the trade though.

Ah well, I've been on a really good run lately.

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You've missed a heckava' rally.

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Part 2.

Tooting my own horn but I said this on the 1st page of this thread in august and got downvoted

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The ONLY thing that actually measures the historical over/under value of the market is its 'yield' in relationship to the yield of bonds. The long bond in particular. The real yield of an equity is more or less the inverse of its p/e -- because all the profits of a company, regardless of whether they are returned as dividends, used to buy back shares, reinvested in growth or kept in the bank are the property of the companies stockholders. So a company with a p/e of 20 has a yield of 5%. Historically this yield usually follows the yield of the long-bond -- makes sense, right? By historical measures, with the 30 year at 2.xx, the market should yield something between 3.2 and 3.5% -- that is we ask a higher yield from the market than the treasury because the market is obviously filled with more risk.. Given the yield on the 30 year, the average p/e of the market should be over 30 imo and we're still at 18x on the SPY I think i.e. I think the MARKET BY ANY REASONABLE MEASURE IS UNDERVALUED ALMOST BY HALF with where rates are.

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There is really no good measure for index p/e adjusted back for share buybacks.

A percentage of my gains were taken, the rest rides with the market.

Personally I think taking some gains, and having some cash at present levels is prudent. But I was also looking to buy more MMM at $150 or lower. That price point was never reached. I still have cash. So that cash will miss whatever movement the market has in store for the immediate future.

But outside of missing some dividends, I don't see that it matters as you don't take either a gain or a loss until you liquidate, so I think you can debate missing out on this newest run up, but the only time it probably will matter is when you need to derive income or gains from your investments, normally when one retires.

Still in, standing pat.

About 50/50 market/cash.

I'm interested to know what some of you think about this economist. He's been pretty good in the past and some of his reasoning comes from using a P/E valuation formula that was discussed before in here. Anyway, not saying I agree or disagree with him.

LINK

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I think they are drawing you in. Once the market gets most of your money, hold on. Because it will be gone, IMO.

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LOL. That's the thought on every CEO's mind, how can we draw investor's money in and then lose it all!

I'm 85% or more in stocks in all of my accounts, I am young but plan on being this way until at least 5 years before retirement. Its great right now sure, but the fact of the matter is that everyone goes into work hoping to make money, betting against the stock market is betting against people going to work to improve their lives.