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re: Anyone else currently sitting on the sideline in the stock market?
Posted on 10/24/16 at 6:56 pm to bayoudude
Posted on 10/24/16 at 6:56 pm to bayoudude
quote:
ETA: I also know several people that haven't been able to retire due to stock market crashes.
This is just silly, markets crash but they always recover, as long as you dont puke up everything at the bottom you would be fine. Buying good names, setting the DRIPs and reinvesting dividends succeeds in any market up or down, down markets are great bc you get more shares. Jesus, even some POS like coca cola was $30 in 2008 then went into the teens in 2009 and now its over $40. If you had just held you wouldve reinvested into way more shares. I dont know why people say stuff like that, its silly, obviously puking shares at the lows is silly and if you do that its on you.
0
Posted on 10/24/16 at 7:27 pm to Northwestern tiger
Bought puts....spy and hedging my core stocks.
Posted on 10/24/16 at 8:43 pm to Northwestern tiger
My portfolio has been up for four straight months. Glad I didn't sell!
Posted on 10/24/16 at 9:08 pm to ragacamps
quote:
ragacamps
This thread is actually from the start of September, and looking back, I find it funny. I was mistaken for (presumably) a permabear after saying I had fundamental and technical issues with the market (primarily low VIX aka volatility). When the thread started, the S&P was at 2170. It increased to 2190 and, a week after the thread started, fell to 2125. Since then, the S&P hasn't been able to stay at 2170. I guess I really am a realist?
So, a month and a half later. VIX is down to 13 again and may fall further. But VIX won't stay low forever, and I'll be licking my chops if it gets below 12 like when I originally made my comments. Fundamentally, I still have a number of issues with this stock market and the economy, but I won't go into detail since they each require some explanation. I will say that global debt is concerning. Read this Bloomberg article for details. Now I don't know where the tipping point is or if there even is one. But my main issue is a lot of that debt hasn't been used productively. Since debt is essentially borrowing from the future, using debt for unproductive purposes puts a strain on future growth. With time, we shall see what happens. The most important thing is to be in a position to take advantage of opportunities when they arise.
Posted on 11/1/16 at 9:25 am to Iowa Golfer
VIX bull spread seems to be working fine.
Posted on 11/1/16 at 10:51 am to Northwestern tiger
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/1/16 at 10:55 am
Posted on 11/1/16 at 11:26 am to Iowa Golfer
I noticed. When do you plan on taking profits, and do you have any plans of being short volatility if VIX hits a certain point? The S&P also just broke support. Next stop 2100?
Posted on 11/1/16 at 11:26 am to Iowa Golfer
Edit: Dang. First double post.
This post was edited on 11/1/16 at 12:14 pm
Posted on 11/1/16 at 12:10 pm to Omada
I've already taken a bunch of profit. I have 100 spreads remaining (a debit of $1.45 and last trade's debit spread was $1.80 something). I also have assorted other call contracts as insurance. Almost the entire open interest you can see (April 2017 $20/$30) is mine.
I'm not shorting VIX. I'm always long to some extent for insurance, and what you're asking about was a speculative trade due to election uncertainty in addition to already existing insurance. So a trade in addition to always owning calls as insurance.
I had thought it would be an easy trade, and it has proven to be as both my insurance premium is paid (for a long time now), and the speculative trade is now guaranteed profit no matter what happens to the remaining 100 spreads.
A very, very conservative, investment. Someone called me a liar on here once, so about the last 10 trades I've made, one can go back and see my exact entry point and trade details, and what has transpired in the interim as well as my exit if I remembered to post about it. What I would take out of the last 10 trades is how infrequent they are, and also how common sense they are based on the events going on at that time. 10 trades have been over at least 2 years.
Patience is a virtue, and it is also been one of my largest downfalls.
I'm not shorting VIX. I'm always long to some extent for insurance, and what you're asking about was a speculative trade due to election uncertainty in addition to already existing insurance. So a trade in addition to always owning calls as insurance.
I had thought it would be an easy trade, and it has proven to be as both my insurance premium is paid (for a long time now), and the speculative trade is now guaranteed profit no matter what happens to the remaining 100 spreads.
A very, very conservative, investment. Someone called me a liar on here once, so about the last 10 trades I've made, one can go back and see my exact entry point and trade details, and what has transpired in the interim as well as my exit if I remembered to post about it. What I would take out of the last 10 trades is how infrequent they are, and also how common sense they are based on the events going on at that time. 10 trades have been over at least 2 years.
Patience is a virtue, and it is also been one of my largest downfalls.
Posted on 11/1/16 at 12:32 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
I'm not shorting VIX. I'm always long to some extent for insurance, and what you're asking about was a speculative trade due to election uncertainty in addition to already existing insurance.
Right. What I'm asking is: if VIX were to reach a certain point, like 40, would you consider opening a position that is effectively short VIX? Basically a trade to profit from VIX returning to more common levels of 15, 18, or even 20.
Posted on 11/1/16 at 1:18 pm to Omada
It seems like it would be a good idea as VIX historically isn't ever consistently at higher levels. But for whatever reason I've never done this before. It makes a lot of sense and seems like another easy trade. Good idea. That one should have been right in front of me for years given my ownership of VIX as insurance, and I never considered this until your post.
Posted on 11/1/16 at 6:50 pm to Iowa Golfer
I've been pondering the viability of such a trade for a month. I've been comparing VIX charts to an ETN that's short VIX futures, XIV. It seems like it could be a very profitable strategy. The biggest issue is determining the severity of events that cause VIX to spike and the market's reaction to figure out where VIX will stop. 20-25 are the most common peaks for VIX, and 30 and 40 are a bit rare. 70 and 80 haven't happened since 2008.
I was expecting the S&P to fall to 2100 over the course of 1-3 days, not today. As is, the RSI indicates that we may be getting close to either a bounce or a trend change. I'm also watching to see if the S&P falls back to 2105 and 2100; even more important is how the market reacts to those levels. If we bounce off one or both, I think I'll buy some XIV and/or SPX calls. If the S&P breaks through 2100, the next major support I see is 2050 and then 2000.
I was expecting the S&P to fall to 2100 over the course of 1-3 days, not today. As is, the RSI indicates that we may be getting close to either a bounce or a trend change. I'm also watching to see if the S&P falls back to 2105 and 2100; even more important is how the market reacts to those levels. If we bounce off one or both, I think I'll buy some XIV and/or SPX calls. If the S&P breaks through 2100, the next major support I see is 2050 and then 2000.
This post was edited on 11/1/16 at 6:52 pm
Posted on 11/1/16 at 7:56 pm to Omada
This is something I will consider. I took a pretty significant short position at the open, for me at least, on the s&p index today. Once I originally saw your post I checked my vix watchlist and saw xiv. I will have to do more research on historic trends with the vix in the coming days.
For now, I think the market will be heading lower and possibly we see the s&p break below 2000. I have several reasons to believe this.
For now, I think the market will be heading lower and possibly we see the s&p break below 2000. I have several reasons to believe this.
This post was edited on 11/1/16 at 7:58 pm
Posted on 11/1/16 at 8:12 pm to thatguy777
quote:
For now, I think the market will be heading lower and possibly we see the s&p break below 2000. I have several reasons to believe this.
Would you mind expounding on your reasons, please? I'd like to know what other people see. Personally, I've laid out my technical thoughts here for the coming days, but any fundamental issues I have don't have a time frame.
Posted on 11/1/16 at 9:01 pm to Omada
It's a mix for me. I'm negative for several reasons. 10 yr Bond yields are rising after they hit their low. Interest rates will rise in December. Trump is going to win(I want this) which creates instability. All major indicators showing bearish signs. S&p had a couple consecutive closes under 2132 which was a previous high before this recent high of 2180 and when it closed under 2132 the past couple of days the vix started rising. I expect 10%, maybe 15%, to the downside. No timeframe necessarily as I bought an inverse fund today (didn't buy puts with expiration dates).
I could be completely wrong about all of this and lose my arse. But I pay attention to people much smarter than me and try to gather all possible information to make a decision
I could be completely wrong about all of this and lose my arse. But I pay attention to people much smarter than me and try to gather all possible information to make a decision
Posted on 11/1/16 at 9:56 pm to thatguy777
quote:
Trump is going to win
Would you like to wager on this?
Posted on 11/1/16 at 10:02 pm to Grits N Shrimp
I already have, but this board is not for politics. I am just stating my reasons and as you could see at the bottom of my post I said "I could be wrong about all of this"
Posted on 11/2/16 at 6:16 am to Northwestern tiger
quote:
Over 70% of my portfolio is now in cash.
Same here. I converted most of my tax-sheltered holdings to cash earning 2.5%. I'll sit on the sidelines for a while.
Posted on 11/2/16 at 6:46 am to Northwestern tiger
Here's your problem...
" I'm have a feeling "
I recommend the couch potato style but if I was to run my investments on feelings it would be contrarian, so since you are skittish, I would be going all in now, and when you are confident...sell, sell,sell. You are displaying the exact reason why most investors fail to even match the market average.
Why investors fail...
" I'm have a feeling "
I recommend the couch potato style but if I was to run my investments on feelings it would be contrarian, so since you are skittish, I would be going all in now, and when you are confident...sell, sell,sell. You are displaying the exact reason why most investors fail to even match the market average.
Why investors fail...
Posted on 11/3/16 at 1:05 pm to Iowa Golfer
All seems to be going well. The spread debit premium is now $2.06.
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