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LSUMATT "FUTURE POLL" RELEASED
Posted on 10/1/08 at 9:58 am
Posted on 10/1/08 at 9:58 am
So after lots of work, I was finally able to reproduce the Colley Matrix computer poll in the BCS. It was a pain because last year he added 1AA teams in a weird way, but now I have it working almost exactly matching his rankings. That really isn't all that useful other than we can look at them 12 hours before he publishes it.
But what is neat is I can run simulations of the rest of the season. I just assume the higher ranked team wins (Coaches poll for top 25; Colley for remainder). Sure, it doesn't include inevitable upsets but that isn't the point. The point is to compare where 2 teams might finish if they have the same record. Upsets sort of wash there way out.
1 Oklahoma 13 - 0
2 LSU 12 - 1
3 Penn State 12 - 0
4 Missouri 12 - 1
5 Boise St 12 - 0
6 South Florida 12 - 0
7 Virginia Tech 12 - 1
8 Alabama 11 - 1
9 Ohio State 10 - 2
10 Brigham Young 11 - 0
11 Vanderbilt 10 - 2
12 Southern Cal 11 - 1
13 Texas 10 - 2
14 Northwestern 11 - 1
15 Florida 11 - 2
16 Connecticut 11 - 1
17 Utah 10 - 1
========NOTES============
* Don't get your panties in wad. I know Vandy won't finish 10-2 etc. and there will be LOTS of upsets.
* I assumed that LSU split with UF. We could finish higher in this poll than several undefeateds (surprisingly even Penn State)
* Look how low USC is (#12) as expected with 1-loss. You could argue that upsets will vault them up, which is true. But this ranking also assumes that Ohio State and Notre Dame finish 10-2. That helps them and it isn't likely to occur. I think most 2-loss SEC and Big12 teams finish above USC (e.g. UF and Texas which are currently behind) . Even 2-loss OSU is above USC
* I can change specific games and will at some point. But don't ask me to run specific cases. I pretend to have a life.
But what is neat is I can run simulations of the rest of the season. I just assume the higher ranked team wins (Coaches poll for top 25; Colley for remainder). Sure, it doesn't include inevitable upsets but that isn't the point. The point is to compare where 2 teams might finish if they have the same record. Upsets sort of wash there way out.
1 Oklahoma 13 - 0
2 LSU 12 - 1
3 Penn State 12 - 0
4 Missouri 12 - 1
5 Boise St 12 - 0
6 South Florida 12 - 0
7 Virginia Tech 12 - 1
8 Alabama 11 - 1
9 Ohio State 10 - 2
10 Brigham Young 11 - 0
11 Vanderbilt 10 - 2
12 Southern Cal 11 - 1
13 Texas 10 - 2
14 Northwestern 11 - 1
15 Florida 11 - 2
16 Connecticut 11 - 1
17 Utah 10 - 1
========NOTES============
* Don't get your panties in wad. I know Vandy won't finish 10-2 etc. and there will be LOTS of upsets.
* I assumed that LSU split with UF. We could finish higher in this poll than several undefeateds (surprisingly even Penn State)
* Look how low USC is (#12) as expected with 1-loss. You could argue that upsets will vault them up, which is true. But this ranking also assumes that Ohio State and Notre Dame finish 10-2. That helps them and it isn't likely to occur. I think most 2-loss SEC and Big12 teams finish above USC (e.g. UF and Texas which are currently behind) . Even 2-loss OSU is above USC
* I can change specific games and will at some point. But don't ask me to run specific cases. I pretend to have a life.
This post was edited on 10/1/08 at 10:00 am
Posted on 10/1/08 at 10:00 am to lsumatt
Very Impressive...very!
Good Job!!!
Good Job!!!
Posted on 10/1/08 at 10:03 am to lsumatt
quote:
lsumatt
great work as usual!
Posted on 10/1/08 at 10:04 am to lsumatt
How do you account for what happens in the human polls to a team that loses? E.g., you have assumed that LSU loses to Florida next week. How do you determine what that does to LSU's standing in the human polls for the succeeding week?
Posted on 10/1/08 at 10:04 am to lsumatt
quote:
lsumatt
Have you ran a BCS ranking as of now yet?
Wheres LSU, Alabama?
Posted on 10/1/08 at 10:04 am to molsusports
Just to be clear, even if LSU were above Penn State with 1-loss, PSU would still be ahead of LSU overall in the BCS.
Posted on 10/1/08 at 10:05 am to LSU Red24
These records are quite impressive....It will not end up with this many teams with records like this.
Posted on 10/1/08 at 10:05 am to lsumatt
quote:
lsumatt
This is good stuff. I enjoy getting into the numbers part of the computer polls and predicting the BCS standings, etc. I started to create a computer poll of my own at one point, but realized I needed some help. Anyway, I have a question for you. Knowing what you know about the polls and what drives them, etc., how pissed do you get when you see or hear of LSU fans pulling for Clemson vs Alabama, or FSU over Florida? It's like they don't realize that they are in essence pulling AGAINST LSU, or they don't care. Either way it frustrates the hell out of me. Just wanted to get your take on it.
Posted on 10/1/08 at 10:06 am to Papa Steve
quote:
Have you ran a BCS ranking as of now yet?
Computers are too screwy right now to bother (and some aren't released yet). But Rick Tellshow has an estimate and he puts more work into this than I do.
LINK
Posted on 10/1/08 at 10:07 am to lsumatt
quote:
5 Boise St 12 - 0
quote:
10 Brigham Young 11 - 0
This is very interesting to me. Everyone has been talking about BYU sneeking into a BCS game.
Posted on 10/1/08 at 10:07 am to nycajun
quote:
How do you account for what happens in the human polls to a team that loses? E.g., you have assumed that LSU loses to Florida next week. How do you determine what that does to LSU's standing in the human polls for the succeeding week?
He's not accounting for anything in the human polls. This is simply one of the computer polls.
Posted on 10/1/08 at 10:08 am to lsumatt
Matt,you're ever bit as good as any paid guy at ESPN,ABC or CBS.
Posted on 10/1/08 at 10:08 am to STEVED00
Yeah, I was pretty shocked about BYU. The MWC is stronger than 3 BCS conferences AND they play UCLA and Washington.
In the end, UCLA and Washington don't do a damn bit of good and there just won't be enough top teams on BYU's slate
In the end, UCLA and Washington don't do a damn bit of good and there just won't be enough top teams on BYU's slate
Posted on 10/1/08 at 10:10 am to SouthEndzoneTiger
quote:
He's not accounting for anything in the human polls. This is simply one of the computer polls.
Right. My error. I thought he was replicating BCS. Clearly not what he said. I misread it.
Posted on 10/1/08 at 10:10 am to lsumatt
quote:
Is PSU Big 10 for Auburn?
Pretty much. Both have undefeated seasons in recent times with no championships. Since the 1980s PSU has two undefeated seasons w/o a title.
Posted on 10/1/08 at 10:12 am to lsumatt
All Hail, LSUMATT!
Even though you are a very young person, you are my daddy.
Even though you are a very young person, you are my daddy.
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