re: LSUMATT "FUTURE POLL" RELEASED

Extremely impressive. That must have taken a while.

Also, just looking over the Big10 stuff, its interesting that Northwestern's only loss would be to OSU based on your prediction. That assumes they beat Michigan St this week which I don't think will happen but we'll see.

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What do you use to manage everything? Just Excel?

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There were no spreadsheets used in the making of this program

Something of this complexity has to be done in a language like FORTRAN or C. I use Matlab, but its all the same thing. No way you could do this in just EXCEL (Visual Basic maybe).

If you want to make your own computer poll, you could probably write a very simple one in EXCEL if you are really good at it, but I think any decent poll would have to be written in a language

Love the work Matt,

But no way in hell does an undefeated team from a Big 6 conference get beaten out by any 1 loss team. I know in 04 Auburn got left out, but they were 1 of 3 undefeated teams.

THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY THIS WOULD EVER HAPPEN.

Saw you commented on this a little later haha

But the work you put into it is amazing

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I wonder how this poll compares to the SpidermanTUBA poll.

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We could find out if he didn't get himself banned weekly. Unlike most rantards, I think Tuba 101 is just fine.

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no way in hell does an undefeated team from a Big 6 conference get beaten out by any 1 loss team.

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This isn't the BCS, just one computer poll. Even if LSU finished above, say Penn St, in the computers. Penn St would go in the BCS.

But I think it is possible for a 1-loss team from the SEC to go over some undefeated BigEast teams

thanks, Matt.

Just using the add/remove feature, I see that LSU would be substantially higher in Colley (10th) if we had played and defeated Troy.

Btw, Wolfe never answered my queries to him last fall.

nice job matt, my only question pertains to

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I just assume the higher ranked team wins (Coaches poll for top 25; Colley for remainder)

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If this is true, then LSU should be undefeated correct?

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If this is true, then LSU should be undefeated correct?

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You needed to see his "notes" on the bottom of the post.

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========NOTES============
* Don't get your panties in wad. I know Vandy won't finish 10-2 etc. and there will be LOTS of upsets.

* I assumed that LSU split with UF. We could finish higher in this poll than several undefeateds (surprisingly even Penn State)

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With lots of thanking him for his work and other opening/closing stuff, I asked him the following (and yes, I know most people on here will say he fell asleep reading it):

"Based on reading the description of the ratings on your website, I gather that (A) your system is intended to produce a retrodictive ranking that reflects the "maximum likelihood estimate" of the true ranking, i.e., the ranking that is the most consistent with the actual results of the games between the connected programs, (B) per BCS policy, the margin of victory/defeat is not a factor, and (C) you do account in some fashion for home field advantage.

So, I ask the following:


1. Am I correct that the home field "correction" is by some diminution of the value of a home win and increase in the value of a road win? If this were not the case, shouldn't the "maximum likelihood" match the "minimum violations" systems such as Jay Coleman's? [some discussion of basketball rpi adjustments deleted]

2. Do you consider bowl games to be home games for any team? That seems to be a slippery slope to me (is the PAC 10 always at home in the Rose Bowl? Is LSU at home in the Sugar, but no other SEC team?, etc.) The same type of issue is present for conference championship games.

These question arise in part because I was particularly puzzled at the changes from the end of the regular season to the post bowl game rankings last year [note--this means the 2006 season]. USC beats Michigan, LSU beats Notre Dame and Louisville beats Wake. All three games are comfortable wins, but MOV doesn't count. Michigan is your highest rated team of those three opponents, then Notre Dame and then Wake. So, how does LSU jump USC and Louisville jump them both? I understand that LSU is perhaps helped by Florida's MNC win, and USC is hurt by both Notre Dame loss and Michigan's diminution through the Ohio State loss. But the relative ranking of those three opponents remains UM-ND-WF. The other factor, which I'm inferring must have been at play, is that USC and LSU might have both been considered to be "home" teams. I also infer that it is a one-size-fits-all correction rather than an adjustment of the outcomes, as both USC and LSU won by far more than most fans, gamblers and computer ranking analysts would cite as the "point value" of home field."