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re: LSUMATT "FUTURE POLL" RELEASED
Posted on 10/1/08 at 11:33 am to Beltway Bengal
Posted on 10/1/08 at 11:33 am to Beltway Bengal
Beltway -
Those guys are usually good about responding if you ask an intelligent question like you did. But I am pretty sure their inbox gets pretty full at the end of the season. You might want to try again.
I am pretty sure all bowl games are considered "Neutral". In fact any game, not at your designated home field would be neutral
Those guys are usually good about responding if you ask an intelligent question like you did. But I am pretty sure their inbox gets pretty full at the end of the season. You might want to try again.
I am pretty sure all bowl games are considered "Neutral". In fact any game, not at your designated home field would be neutral
0
Posted on 10/1/08 at 11:35 am to Nuts4LSU
quote:
Since the 1980s PSU has two undefeated seasons w/o a title.
quote:
I remember 1994, but when was the other one?
1986
This post was edited on 10/1/08 at 11:42 am
Posted on 10/1/08 at 11:46 am to STEVED00
hard core right there 
Posted on 10/1/08 at 11:47 am to STEVED00
quote:
This is very interesting to me. Everyone has been talking about BYU sneeking into a BCS game.
And if they do they will get put in their place just like Hawaii did last year.
Really liked reading lsumatts stuff toward the end of last year when I was just a lurker, glad you are keeping it up this year.
Posted on 10/1/08 at 11:59 am to Summer Grove Tiger
No way the rankings end up like that? First off if Penn St. stays undefeated..theyll be ahead of LSU...second a one lose Mizzou team would be behind a one loss USC team, bc that means USC won out the rest of the year...
LSU will need to some help from other conferences to knock off teams like OU, Penn St, Mizzou, USC, South Florida, and even OSU...that is if we wind up losing..which would be a miracle if we didn't?
LSU will need to some help from other conferences to knock off teams like OU, Penn St, Mizzou, USC, South Florida, and even OSU...that is if we wind up losing..which would be a miracle if we didn't?
Posted on 10/1/08 at 12:08 pm to BayouBomber25
quote:
No way the rankings end up like that? First off if Penn St. stays undefeated..theyll be ahead of LSU
You are wrong. If Penn State goes undefeated and LSU drops one to Florida this is exactly how the Colley Matrix poll would look.
quote:
second a one lose Mizzou team would be behind a one loss USC team, bc that means USC won out the rest of the year...
Again, you are wrong. Mizzou would in fact be ahead of USC in the Colley Matrix Poll.
quote:
LSU will need to some help from other conferences to knock off teams like OU, Penn St, Mizzou, USC, South Florida, and even OSU...that is if we wind up losing
No, no we wouldn't. We might need help being #2 in the BCS. But in this poll, the Colley Matrix, we would finish right where you see us. Notice I keep saying Colley Matrix Poll? Apparently you are assuming this would be the final BCS standings because you didn't read the post.
Posted on 10/1/08 at 12:57 pm to BayouBomber25
quote:
No way the rankings end up like that? First off if Penn St. stays undefeated..theyll be ahead of LSU...second a one lose Mizzou team would be behind a one loss USC team, bc that means USC won out the rest of the year...
I am glad to hear you simulated the Colley Matrix and got those results.
Posted on 10/1/08 at 1:01 pm to lsumatt
Matt,
I think you're right about the general responsiveness of the group. I know Billingsley answers emails and I've been told by others that Colley and Massey have responded to them. In fairness, my email to Wolfe was longwinded and started with a disclaimer that I was an LSU fan. He may have stopped reading.
You've often commented about how the various computer models tend to converge at the end of the season. Is Billingsley still the most likely outlier at that point?
I think you're right about the general responsiveness of the group. I know Billingsley answers emails and I've been told by others that Colley and Massey have responded to them. In fairness, my email to Wolfe was longwinded and started with a disclaimer that I was an LSU fan. He may have stopped reading.
You've often commented about how the various computer models tend to converge at the end of the season. Is Billingsley still the most likely outlier at that point?
Posted on 10/1/08 at 1:04 pm to Beltway Bengal
quote:
Is Billingsley still the most likely outlier at that point?
Yeah, its thrown out about 90% of the time. His poll is so much different.
(1) He has a preseason poll
(2) If you beat a team #5 and they tank, you still get some credit for beating a #5 team
(3) When you lose matters.
So Billingsly is almost always a high or low for a team.
Posted on 10/1/08 at 1:04 pm to lsumatt
Matt...You are becoming the top reason I visit this site anymore.
Posted on 10/2/08 at 10:50 pm to Section28
The Matrix Poll is wac then...No way the BCS ends up like that if thats the case...If a team goes undefeated in the Big 10 (Like Penn St) Which everyone is already on that bandwagon..would IMO go ahead of us...even tho, we have a more difficult schedule and better wins. It would suck if that was the situation. As far as USC winning out...and Mizzou losing a game....USC goes ahead of Mizzou in the BCS...sorry I didnt see your Matrix poll....
Posted on 10/2/08 at 10:57 pm to lsumatt
go ahead and clear out South Florida from that list.
Posted on 10/2/08 at 11:03 pm to lsumatt
What if Texas finishes undefeated or with 1 loss?
Posted on 10/2/08 at 11:12 pm to Al Bundy
Put USF with 1 loss and see what happens now.
Posted on 10/2/08 at 11:18 pm to Summer Grove Tiger
Dude, This shite is amazing. I wish we played this week.
Posted on 10/3/08 at 5:23 pm to BayouBomber25
quote:
The Matrix Poll is wac then...No way the BCS ends up like that if thats the case...If a team goes undefeated in the Big 10 (Like Penn St) Which everyone is already on that bandwagon..would IMO go ahead of us..
I think you missed the whole point of this exercise. Of course Penn State would make the BCS NC over LSU if they went undefeated and LSU had one loss. The computers only count as 1/3 (and this is just one poll).
The point is to compare some other "not so obvious" scenarios. For example, what if USC and LSU both finish with 1-loss (a good possibility with USC's schedule)? This suggests that USC's computer score may be soooo bad, that it won't matter what their human poll ranking.
Posted on 10/3/08 at 5:28 pm to lsumatt
I wish I would have saw this the other day. Matt, did you use visual basic to simulate Colley's ratings?
EDIT: nvm, I got it.
"There were no spreadsheets used in the making of this program
Something of this complexity has to be done in a language like FORTRAN or C. I use Matlab, but its all the same thing. No way you could do this in just EXCEL (Visual Basic maybe).
If you want to make your own computer poll, you could probably write a very simple one in EXCEL if you are really good at it, but I think any decent poll would have to be written in a language"
Rich Tellshow sent me an excel file of his SOS component using Wolfe's data. I couldn't understand it for the life of me. All those pivotTables and charts...
EDIT: nvm, I got it.
"There were no spreadsheets used in the making of this program
Something of this complexity has to be done in a language like FORTRAN or C. I use Matlab, but its all the same thing. No way you could do this in just EXCEL (Visual Basic maybe).
If you want to make your own computer poll, you could probably write a very simple one in EXCEL if you are really good at it, but I think any decent poll would have to be written in a language"
Rich Tellshow sent me an excel file of his SOS component using Wolfe's data. I couldn't understand it for the life of me. All those pivotTables and charts...
This post was edited on 10/3/08 at 5:33 pm
Posted on 10/3/08 at 5:32 pm to southeastBoot
MATLAB. But of course its all the same regardless of what language you us.
Posted on 10/3/08 at 5:33 pm to lsumatt
Posted on 10/3/08 at 5:34 pm to lsumatt
I can understand everything, except how to get Wolfe's data to calculate things like opponents' win/loss total. Do you have any suggestions for any language or program on how to do that?
This post was edited on 10/3/08 at 5:36 pm
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