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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - July 30, 2020 Update: 114,481 cases - 3,811 deaths - 1,317,390 tested
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:36 pm to Brummy
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:36 pm to Brummy
quote:
3 day averages: 8.0% positive test rate 46 deaths per day -25 hospitalizations per day -1 vent per day
That’s a great trend, no doubt. However, the positivity rate doesn’t scream to open everything.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:37 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
Death count is one of the largest delayed stat. They aren’t reported until a death certificate is reported to state. So the death could have been weeks ago but gets reported as a death today.
True, but assuming that all of these people leaving the hospital is a good thing bc they were discharged to go home isn’t accurate. Those who left in a body bag would decrease the hospital count as well. That is the only point I’m making. Unfortunately it’s impossible to tell exactly how many went home vs those who passed using this data.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:38 pm to Riolobo
quote:
Tuesday is the big day with JBE. Hopefully he will announce on to phase 3
I can assure you there’s no chance that will happen yet.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:38 pm to MikeBRLA
You’re absolutely right but the difference is that we’ve had lots of people leaving in a body bag in the past that we’re replaced by new patients. Seems like we’re replacing fewer of them
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:38 pm to Riolobo
quote:
Hopefully he will announce on to phase 3
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:38 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:quote:
Tuesday is the big day with JBE. Hopefully he will announce on to phase 3
Ha. No chance whatsoever. Opposite.
He will use this to show the “restrictions are working”.
We will be in Phase 2 throughout August.
Unfortunately, this is my guess as well. With schools about to open, he will use that as a reason to start the school year in Phase 2 "so we don't have a huge spike".
At this point, I am just glad the numbers the past week are not giving him a reason to go backwards. If that trend continues through Tuesday, there would be no logical reason for any further restrictions.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:40 pm to Weekend Warrior79
I ageee. We’re not going to phase 3 yet.
I’m sure there will be some kind of increase when school starts, even if it’s just slight. This will cause some reservation. Best case scenario is that we enter Phase 3 sometime around mid September.
I’m sure there will be some kind of increase when school starts, even if it’s just slight. This will cause some reservation. Best case scenario is that we enter Phase 3 sometime around mid September.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:40 pm to treyk89
quote:
However, the positivity rate doesn’t scream to open everything.
Someone posted awhile back that 5% was the WH recommendation for Phase 3. Based on JBE's statement when we went to Phase 2, he will wait until the total cases are less than 5%. Right now LA's historic rate is 8.69%,
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:42 pm to Weekend Warrior79
I'm just trying to dream a little and think forward to cooler weather in October and us being in phase 3.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:43 pm to Weekend Warrior79
I don’t know that we will “ever” go to Phase 3 until there is a vaccine or therapeutic.
I would expect us to be in 2 AT LEAST until October. Anyone thinking otherwise is naive.
I would expect us to be in 2 AT LEAST until October. Anyone thinking otherwise is naive.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:44 pm to treyk89
quote:
That’s a great trend, no doubt. However, the positivity rate doesn’t scream to open everything.
Y’all can downvote this comment all you want, JBE is not opening things back up or moving to phase 3 until the positivity rate is lower than 5%. Will not happen. We can all debate if that’s the right/wrong thing to do, but you’re naive if you think otherwise.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:45 pm to treyk89
How can I determine if the fall in hospitalizations is due to tangible declines in new admittances or due to people dying and freeing up space?
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:45 pm to treyk89
It’ll have to be less than 5% for at least 2-3 weeks and still descending that last week. Any rise, any day above 5%, he ain’t moving.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:48 pm to Fun Bunch
If he wakes up one day and has just a little common sense, maybe he will change his stance on it.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:48 pm to notiger1997
quote:
If he wakes up one day and has just a little common sense, maybe he will change his stance on it.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:49 pm to TigersSEC2010
JBE didn't move to phase 3 when hospitization was sub 600, hes not budging now that its at 1500.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:49 pm to Fun Bunch
I think we will go to Phase 3 after Labor Day
the numbers are about to plummet
his criteria has always been 2 weeks of declining numbers, if we have 5 weeks of decline, we will move to Phase 3
the numbers are about to plummet
his criteria has always been 2 weeks of declining numbers, if we have 5 weeks of decline, we will move to Phase 3
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:50 pm to lsu xman
Yeah, that was the time to go to 3.
We will not be going to 3. Not now, not anytime soon, not until this is basically all over.
We will not be going to 3. Not now, not anytime soon, not until this is basically all over.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:52 pm to treyk89
quote:
Or hello masks, because they are working.
Looking at states across the South, the downward trend started about the same time regardless if masks required or not.
Seems more like it is going through the rest of the state like it did in NOLA in March/April then suddenly hospitals had no patients from full ICU's in about a week,
I'm hearing that two hospitals in NOLA have zero CV patients the last two weeks
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:53 pm to Salmon
quote:
his criteria has always been 2 weeks of declining numbers
Wut? It took a month of declining numbers to take us off stay at home order
Then he extended phase 1 2 weeks longer than needed
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