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Started By
Message
re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:47 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:47 pm to GEAUXmedic
frick yea, I just bought a kayak! How right is this guy most of the time?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:47 pm to slackster
As an amateur, does it not look like total shite over the last few hours?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:48 pm to LSU2001
quote:
that shall not be named
I don't understand this at all. It was named Katrina. Katrina was its classified name. Why are you afraid to say or type Katrina?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:48 pm to Wimp Lo
quote:
I don't understand this at all. It was named Katrina. Katrina was its classified name. Why are you afraid to say or type Katrina?
Well now you done it
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:49 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
More from Larry Cosgrove:
Wait, wrong guy, Larry is a nutcase.
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 2:51 pm
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:51 pm to rds dc
quote:
Wait, wrong guy, Larry is a nutcase.
LOL
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:51 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
That's exactly what it is. Some of the internet "meterologists" cream their pants about these scenarios.
I know because I used to be one. We used to have a weekly TV program in elementary school and one year they let me do a segment tracking actual storms on a large map each week. After a few weeks I decided to throw in my own "forecast" and suggested a storm was going to come right up Vermillion Bay. The next day my segment was cancelled because kids were freaking out and asking their parents and shite.
I've got no issue with an expert discussing other possibilities, but I'm going to need a little more scientific reasoning than a "suspicion" or the way you "feel".
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:52 pm to slackster
I guess I'll crank my generator tonight and go grab a few necessities just in case
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:52 pm to GEAUXmedic
What does this all mean for my neighborhood?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:53 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
As an amateur, does it not look like total shite over the last few hours?
For who and when?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:54 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
As an amateur, does it not look like total shite over the last few hours?
it's going to look like shite for at least another day or two. We're concerned about what happens after that.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:55 pm to slackster
He gave his reasoning. He said because of the high ridge. He might be thinking the models are not factoring that enough in their forecasts when he's kinda right with the way they handle ridges and forecasts very far out...
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:56 pm to baytiger
Larry Cosgrove is being very irresponsible and just trying to forecast a worst possible scenario. It is almost always wrong. There is not a single model to show what he mentions. Maybe they will eventually head that far west but they could also show it curving back out to sea and never hitting land at all.
In his defense, he may be thinking the models are breaking down the ridge too soon which they do often do. However, he could mention that possibility in far less terrifying ways.
In his defense, he may be thinking the models are breaking down the ridge too soon which they do often do. However, he could mention that possibility in far less terrifying ways.
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 2:57 pm
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:57 pm to Wimp Lo
quote:
I don't understand this at all. It was named Katrina. Katrina was its classified name. Why are you afraid to say or type Katrina?
Because it was not Katrina
Posted on 8/23/16 at 2:58 pm to deuce985
quote:
He gave his reasoning. He said because of the high ridge. He might be thinking the models are not factoring that enough in their forecasts when he's kinda right with the way they handle ridges and forecasts very far out...
he makes at least 3 huge assumptions in that discussion, and if any one of them is slightly off, then the whole forecast is garbage. it's not worth the pixels on your screen.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:01 pm to BigB0882
I don't think that's being irresponsible letting people know a worst case scenario. He never said it's going to happen like that as fact it's just a POSSIBLE scenario that MIGHT happen the models don't seem to be showing. He's informing you trying to make you more prepared in case it does happen.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:02 pm to deuce985
quote:
He gave his reasoning. He said because of the high ridge. He might be thinking the models are not factoring that enough in their forecasts when he's kinda right with the way they handle ridges and forecasts very far out...
But the ridge itself is part of the forecast. There isn't some guaranteed ridge and location that he knows and the models don't. In essence, he is saying the ridge that only exists in the models at this point is not being handled properly by the models.
You know what you will never see? You'll never see someone on a weather forum post that they think the ridge will be weaker than the models suggest and the storm will move northward much earlier in the forecast period, causing absolutely no concerns in the recently flooded area of LA. That kind of prediction doesn't get the juices flowing, but it is just as likely as his hunch.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:03 pm to deuce985
But you can come up with a million different possible scenarios from this running into Mexico to turning out to sea and never touching land. People who do not follow models will think what he is saying is likely to happen, even if he clearly says it is just a possibility. They know it is coming from a meteorologist so they take it as gospel.
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