re: The ATL Offseason Thread

I'll go ahead and say....


Improvement:

1b- full year of Freddie
2B- Peterson/Beckham platoon
SS- Aybar
Rf- healthy markikis

Same, but could improve:
3b- Garcia/Johnson
LF- Olivera
cF- enciarte

Probably a drop off
C- AJP/Flowers


Starting Pitchers-
Drop most likely, but a Bounce back from Tehran, Norris a/o Kendrick working out, Wisler & others from last year with more experience, plus guys acquired this off season....has potential to be close to the same or improve.


Bullpen- should be improved. More depth.

I think the braves finish somewhere between 73-89 and 80-82

Of the people going for ST, when are you guys heading down? My wife and I are heading down for 17-19th. Sitting on the lawn by the beer tent.

Yea, I have been trying to figure out how he had Simba rated worse than Aybar.

We won't be nearly as good as we were in the first half, and we won't go 3-27 or whatever we went in the second half. I do think we drop around 90 games.

We need one more owner right now in the ATL Fantasy Baseball league. Check in on the Fantasy Board if you are interested.

80-82 was the top end of the range, not necessarily the prediction.

Won't start as good as last year, but 2nd half of the season will be much better as the young guys on the pitching staff get figured out.

Im thinking our ceiling this year is right about 75 wins. That would be a 8 win improvement from this past year.

C:
2016:AJ Pierzynski/Tyler Flowers
2015 WAR:2.1
I dont think AJ will quite be as good as he was last year when he was a 2.1 WAR player. Flowers will be an upgrade from Bethancourt/Lavarnway. Im thinking they will combine for probably right around 1.8 WAR, just under last years number.

1B:
2016:Freddie Freeman
2015 WAR:3.6ish
Freddie missed 46 games and still put up 3.4 WAR. The rest of the guys were close to a wash. If Freddie is healthy, then he should put up close to 4 WAR, so we should be slightly better.

2B:
2016:Jace Peterson/Gordon Beckham/Ozzie Albies
2015 WAR:1.2
I have no confidence in Peterson. Once pitchers figured him out, he was one of the worst starters in baseball. I dont see that changing this year, and I dont think Beckham will bring much to the table. Albies could get a shot come August. Ill predict about 0.8 WAR, less than last year.

3B:
2016:Adonis Garcia/Kelly Johnson
2015 WAR:1.5ish
Uribe and Garcia combined for over 2 WAR in just over 100 games, but everyone else that played was awful. I think Garcia will be serviceable during his time, and Kelly should be ok in spots. Ill say we get to 2 WAR between them.

SS:
2016:Erick Aybar/Daniel Castro/Dansby Swanson
215 WAR:3.4 WAR
I see no way that we get even close to this in 2016. If Aybar plays the whole year with us, then I could see him around 2 WAR. If not, I could see that number go down further.

LF:
2016:Hector Oliveria/Michael Bourn
2015 WAR:Negative Something
This was our worst position last year by far, and it should improve drastically imo. I dont think Oliviera will be a all star by no means, but I think he will be a descent starter and will probably get us around 1 WAR.

CF:
2016:Ender Inciarte/Michael Bourn
2015 WAR:1.1ish
This should be another place for improvement. Maybin played admirably in his one year here, but Inciarte should definitely best him. He will probably miss a few games against lefties, since he isnt great against them, and his offense could suffer in Turner, but I still see a a combo that should give us 2.5 WAR.

RF:
2016:Nick Markakis
2015 WAR:1.6
Markakis is only 32, so I dont think he will decline yet, and he looked like he was getting healthier towards the end of the year. Im actually going to be bullish on him this year, and say he will get to 2 WAR in a full year.

SP:
2016:Teheran/Wisler/Norris/Kendrick/Folty/Blair/Banuelos/etc
2015 WAR:6.0
We are losing 3.4 WAR with the lose of Miller. Im not sure if we can get that back in other slots. Teheran should be able to get back to 2 WAR. The combo of Norris/Kendrick should be good enough for about 1.5 WAR. We should definitely see improvement from Wisler/Folty/Banuelos, but I dont expect more than about 2 WAR from them. Its hard to see if we will get anything from the other young guys, although I wouldnt be surprised if Blair was our second best starter this year, and that would push us over our mark of last season.

RP:
2016:Vizcaino/Grilli/Johnson/Withrow/Carpenter/Folty/Winkler/Simmons/Krol
2015 WAR:-1.2
We had the worst pen in baseball last year, so it can only go up. I think Vizcaino should get a little better, and the vets should still be descent. It will come down to the guys coming off injuries. If Simmons, Withrow, and Winkler get back to where they were, then we could have a nice pen, and I see us between 2.5 and 3 WAR.

Summary:

C:slightly worse
1B:slightly better
2B:slightly worse
3B:better
SS:a lot worse
LF:a lot better
CF:better
RF:slightly better

SP:slightly worse
RP:a lot better

I think that should put us right at 72 wins, with our absolute ceiling at 75

quote:

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Chipper Jones and Freddie Freeman "Chipper Rescues Freddie" ATV Bobblehead

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WANT!

Actually, they all seem cool this year. Well done, Braves.

quote:

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Im thinking our ceiling this year is right about 75 wins. That would be a 8 win improvement from this past year.

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Pretty good analysis on the WAR end I think. Freddie, Inciarte, and the bullpen could all wind up a 1 WAR or so higher than you've predicted, but I think your overall looks pretty good. But I think your total WAR with your predictions would be expected to be less than 72 wins.

I'd agree 75 wins or so is our ceiling. I'm expecting something in the 68-72 win range. Fangraphs has us to be with the Phillies and Padres as by far the worst offenses in baseball, and I'd have to agree. That's going to put a cap on how good we can be.