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re: Cameron on 104.5 this morning

Posted on 8/4/15 at 1:56 pm to
Posted by tigerfoot
Alexandria
Member since Sep 2006
56508 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

Thus, in my opinion, given the three HUGE games before the BCSCG, given Jefferson's 85% completion percentage after the first half of the BCSCG, and given Lee's abysmal history against Alabama, a reasonable mind could rationally choose to stick with Jefferson for the second half of the BCSCG because it had worked well in the three previous HUGE games.
I agree with almost all your points, but Lee had seen some success against Bama in years prior and JJ was just awful that night, much like AJ. Yes, BH could be worse, but I think he MAY get it done and we MAY win championships with him.......with AJ we will not win a championship.
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
5581 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 1:58 pm to
quote:

quote:

Gary Crowton was the single-greatest mistake that Miles has made in his tenure.
But yet he was the OC for a GREAT offense and a NC team......... Yea...A shitty hire......
It was LITERALLY not his offense.
Posted by hbuc88
San Antonio
Member since Dec 2009
1174 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:01 pm to
I honestly don't care who the starter is as long as he's better than what we had last season! To say that Jennings "is who he is" after one season starting, is assinine. Harris APPEARS to have more natural ability, but I think both guys have the physical tools to be successful. The question is, how much has EITHER improved in the mental aspect of the game. If Jennings has improved and Harris hasn't, then Jennings should start. If Harris has improved and Jennings hasn't then Harris should start. I just want the most competent guy back there. I don't care WHICH of these two is the starter
-----------------------------------------------

All of this. People need to stop rooting for a specific player and just want the best to play. Only the coaches know who gives them the best chance to win.
Posted by chilge1
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2009
12137 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:02 pm to
quote:

With Jimbo Fisher as OC:
With Jamarcus Russell as QB:
............Points Per Play... Yards Per Play
2005 - 27th................... 46th
2006 - 7th..................... 5th

quote:

But yet he was the OC for a GREAT offense and a NC team......... Yea...A shitty hire......


quote:

With Gary Crowton as OC:
With Matt Flynn as QB:
............Points Per Play... Yards Per Play
2007 - 9th.................... 34th

With Jarrett Lee/Jordan Jefferson as QB:
............Points Per Play... Yards Per Play
2008 - 33rd.................. 67th
2009 - 44th.................. 87th
2010 - 31st.................. 68th


quote:

With Greg Studrawa as OC:
With Jarrett Lee/Jordan Jefferson as QB:
...........Points Per Play... Yards Per Play
2011 - 7th.................... 36th

With Zach Mettenberger as QB:
............Points Per Play... Yards Per Play
2012 - 48th.................. 74th


quote:

With Cam Cameron as OC:
With Zach Mettenberger as QB:
...........Points Per Play... Yards Per Play
2013 - 9th................... 12th

With Anthony Jennings/Brandon Harris as QB:
...........Points Per Play... Yards Per Play
2014 - 78th................. 71st


You tell me, Peej, was the better sample of Crowton's abilities as an OC his first year here with Jimbo's recruits, or his last three years with his own recruits, and the absolutely disbelieving lack of QB depth that he left the program when he was fired?
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
5581 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:04 pm to
quote:

quote:

it's quite likely that he will get better.
Based on what?????? Come on MR.FACTS,,,,,, Break it down for me............
Well, it's pretty simple, given Miles' history of developing QBs. Just look at this chart . . .
quote:

we're all chart and text-wall fatigued at this point, please stop....
. . . this chart of LSU QBs under Miles . . .
quote:

we're all chart and text-wall fatigued at this point, please stop....
. . . this chart that shows that LSU QBs improve under Miles . . .
quote:

we're all chart and text-wall fatigued at this point, please stop....
Ok. Ok. I'll make it small . . this time. For you, ForeLSU.

Do you see how Lee, Jefferson, and Mettenberger improved during their careers. You have to look hard because the chart is smaller than usual.


SEC Regular Season Games
Posted by mikrit54
Robeline
Member since Oct 2013
8664 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:08 pm to
Posted by Lou Pai
Member since Dec 2014
28150 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:12 pm to
How many times did LSU cross midfield? Once?

Jefferson was there to be a run-first quarterback, and the offense wasn't working. He was a vastly inferior passing QB to Lee. If your run game is nonexistent, and you are trying to play catch up, you need to go with the offense with far more upside.

Bringing up completion percentages on a 3.1 YPA, 52 yard passing effort, as if they are relevant in circumstances like that, only serves to obfuscate the situation. Jefferson was in there to run first, and we ran it for 1.4 YPC. Jefferson had all the downside of Lee in that he was responsible for two turnovers, but he had zero upside in that he provided no support for the run game and no balance for Alabama to worry about any aerial threat whatsoever. Sure, he was the hero of the 11/5 game, but Saban didn't have the luxury of preparing for a Jefferson-led offense in that game almost exclusively. Clearly, that same offensive style wasn't working.

You also give credit to Jefferson for comebacks against UGA and Arkansas, even though he was the quarterback for the entirety of both games and was at least partially responsible for poor offense production inin the first half.

You can harp on his mediocre stats as much possible, but it was very clear that Jefferson was a) taking no pressure off the run game through the air, b) provided no upside for any kind of big pasing play, and c) was ineffective on the ground himself. Lee may have gone 6/13 in the second half and might have thrown a pick, but we would have been more likely to score with him than Jefferson.
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
203544 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

You tell me, Peej, was the better sample of Crowton's abilities as an OC his first year here with Jimbo's recruits



Hey A NC is A NC..... Well Miles recruited the ALL-MIGHTY RP It was Miles who brought in these other QB'S.. You don't want to give Miles any grief about having his hands in the offense way too much...... But whatever... Crowton OVERALL was not the best hire.....I will agree with you there....

All I know is I watched a lot of QB play from last year from a lot of SEC QBs and I watched a lot of offenses. AU,Ole Miss,MSU,Bama All ran way more smoothly and had a variety enough to keep other DC's wondering... I didn't see ANY other DC's sweating what LSU might have done next.. Football is a chess game . As an offense you want the D to not know what coming... LSU ran a few different plays against A & M and they were pretty good... But please explain to me that it took till game 12 before they did this.....Was it that hard to get AJ to understand anything new???? Looked like it... LSU will be near the middle of the SEC as long as they run this mundane offense...........
Posted by atltiger6487
Member since May 2011
18158 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

So Miles can stick with a QB who is completing over 75% of his passes, or he can substitute Lee into the game.
Lee might have mixed things up. Lee might have sparked the team. However, the odds were not in Lee's favor.


Good god in heaven - really??? You're cherry picking a JJ stat from 1/9/12 that looks good?!?!? Do you think JJ was playing well???????????

How about these stats: 44 plays, 92 yards, 5 first downs, 0 points.

Defend Miles all you want, but when you continue to do it about 1/9/12, you lose all credibility.

And as for Lee that night, well, we'll never know. Because he never got the chance. And so we went down in flames, riding JJ all the way down. Most embarrassing performance in LSU history, on the biggest stage.
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
5581 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:15 pm to
quote:

I agree with almost all your points, but Lee had seen some success against Bama in years prior and JJ was just awful that night
Jefferson was awful?

Was he awful during the first half when he completed over 85% of his passes?

Was he awful during the first three quarters of the BCSCG when he completed over 75% of his passes?

Tell me more about Lee's success against Bama. In which of his four games against Bama, other than 2010, did Lee complete more than 43% of his passes?

As bad as YOU think Jefferson was in the BCSCG, he completed almost 65% of his passes in that game. Lee had never had that kind of success against Bama. And yes, Jefferson threw an interception in his start that night, but Lee had NEVER thrown just one interception in a start against Bama.


quote:

BH could be worse, but I think he MAY get it done and we MAY win championships with him.......with AJ we will not win a championship.
Both of them, Harris and Jefferson, have probably improved greatly from last year. Miles and Cameron both noted marked improvement in the spring. And LSU QBs under Miles tend to have noticeable improvement over their careers.
Posted by MoneyShot
Member since Jan 2013
4319 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:19 pm to
Lee may very well have been killed on the field with the play of the offensive line.
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

Do you see how Lee, Jefferson, and Mettenberger improved during their careers. You have to look hard because the chart is smaller than usual.


without a confidence interval, the plot is meaningless.
Posted by atltiger6487
Member since May 2011
18158 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:28 pm to
quote:

Lee may very well have been killed on the field with the play of the offensive line.


very dramatic - but we'll never know. He wasn't given a chance.

And so we let JJ drive our plane right into the ground, 21-0.

Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
203544 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:28 pm to
quote:

How about these stats: 44 plays, 92 yards, 5 first downs, 0 points



FACTS....... And most LSU fans want to blame the o-line.... I will say that Bama had one of the best D's I have ever seen... And its hard to beat a team twice in the same season.... Miles made ZERO adjustments and Saban did..... BUT I think there is WAY WAY more going on the week prior about who should start against Bama.. JJ got his shot and played horrible.............
Posted by chilge1
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2009
12137 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:43 pm to
quote:

 It was Miles who brought in these other QB'S.. 


So the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach had no input as to which quarterbacks were offered a scholarship?

quote:

You don't want to give Miles any grief about having his hands in the offense way too much..


No, I don't. Because we've run a different offense each time we've hired a coordinator. If there was any truth to the belief that Miles meddles in the offense, we would have seen it in 2011.

Alabama, Auburn, and Ole Miss had senior quarterbacks... Miss St had a redshirt junior Heisman candidate. LSU had a physically limited true sophomore. Could have been a factor in why we ran a mundane offense.
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
5581 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:51 pm to
quote:

Jefferson was there to be a run-first quarterback, and the offense wasn't working.
In 2011, every QB in the SEC was a run-first QB to the same extent that Jefferson was a run-first QB. Lee was a run-first QB to the same extent that Jefferson was a run-first QB. Moreover, LSU's offense wasn't working against Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia in the first half, but LSU won all three of those games.


quote:

He was a vastly inferior passing QB to Lee.
Completely wrong. In every regular season at LSU except 2010, Jefferson had better passing numbers than Lee.


quote:

Jefferson was in there to run first, and we ran it for 1.4 YPC.
Not Jefferson's fault. Moreover, Lee was not a pass first QB, and LSU had never run it better with Lee than Jefferson.


quote:

Jefferson had all the downside of Lee in that he was responsible for two turnovers,
Jefferson had a pick and a fumble on a sack. Lee never had a start against Alabama in which he had less than two turnovers.


quote:

but he had zero upside in that he provided no support for the run game and no balance for Alabama to worry about any aerial threat whatsoever.
Jefferson had better regular season passing numbers than Lee: Comp%, YPA, and QB Rating.


quote:

You also give credit to Jefferson for comebacks against UGA and Arkansas, even though he was the quarterback for the entirety of both games and was at least partially responsible for poor offense production inin the first half.
LSU blew out their opponents in both games.

LSU scored four offensive TDs in both games.

Jefferson threw for 208 yards against Arkansas; the second highest total of the season.


quote:

Jefferson was taking no pressure off the run game through the air
Throughout 2011, LSU ran the ball better when Jefferson was the QB. YOU have NO way of knowing, and NO factual support, to suggest that Lee would have done better. Coaches go with the percentages, and the percentages said stick with Jefferson.

Moreover, Lee was only effective when LSU could run the ball. Lee was efficient, but not prolific. During 2011, "efficient" is the single word that defined Lee. You'll be hard pressed to find a post about Lee without the word "efficient" just a few words away. The thing about being defined as “efficient” is that it means that you aren’t a prolific passer; you don’t throw it a lot. In fact, it typically means that the offense is run-oriented and passes infrequently. In his eight starts prior to the GOTC, Lee averaged less than 20 passes per game. Lee had only one game in 2011 in which he threw for more than 200 yards: 213 yards against Mississippi State. Lee wasn’t a prolific passer. He was efficient. (It took Lee nine regular season starts to have one game over 200 yards passing (213 against Miss State). It took Jefferson only three regular season start to have a game over 200 yards passing (208 yards against #3 Arkansas.)

Efficient does not work when you can’t run. Efficient only works when your team can run the ball effectively. Efficient means that the defense is focused on stopping the run. Efficient means that the defense is not expecting a pass. Efficient means that you have time to throw because the defense is not focused on stopping the pass. Efficient does not work when you aren’t running well. Efficient does not work when your line can’t block. Bama’s D was suffocating that night. Bama would have killed Lee. In fact, Jefferson at QB actually slowed the Bama rush down because Bama employed a mush rush to contain Jefferson, similar to what LSU used against Manziel to contain him.


quote:

Jefferson provided no upside for any kind of big passing play
In the 2011 regular season, Jefferson's YPA (9.34) was higher than Lee's (7.82).


quote:

Jefferson was ineffective on the ground himself.
Everyone was ineffective on the ground. Lee was a worse runner, and LSU ran the ball worse when Lee was QB.


quote:

Lee may have gone 6/13 in the second half and might have thrown a pick, but we would have been more likely to score with him than Jefferson.
In four games, Lee has had one game in which he completed 6 passes. 6/13 would be his best game against Alabama ever.
And he was unlikely to have thrown just one interception. Coaches go with the percentages. The percentages said to go with Jefferson.


EDITED for clarification.
This post was edited on 8/4/15 at 3:50 pm
Posted by Lou Pai
Member since Dec 2014
28150 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:58 pm to
quote:

Lee was a run-first QB


Stopped right here. Wow
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
203544 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:59 pm to
quote:

LSU had a physically limited true sophomore.



Physically limited or mentally limited... AGAIN YOU will not address that it took till game 12 for them to try anything different... Blake Sims was a 1st year starter and ran Bamas offense[with a new OC] really really good.....




quote:

Could have been a factor in why we ran a mundane offense.



You are SOOO fricking blind... LSU'S offense SUCKED last year... Just admit it instead of making stupid excuses. That's ALL you ever have.. You cherry-pick what you respond to and make excuses............
Posted by Salviati
Member since Apr 2006
5581 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 3:01 pm to
quote:

Good god in heaven - really??? You're cherry picking a JJ stat from 1/9/12 that looks good?!?!?
Good God in heaven, do you know what cherry picking is?

LSU can run the ball, or LSU can pass the ball. LSU had run the ball better with Jefferson than with Lee all season, so LSU was highly unlikely to run the ball better with Lee.

Jefferson was completing over 75% of his passes during the first half. Lee had NEVER completed passes like that against Bama, so LSU was highly unlikely to pass the ball better with Lee.


quote:

Do you think JJ was playing well???????????
Do you think Lee would have played better???????????

Jefferson had a history of second-half comebacks in HUGE games in 2011. Lee had a history of playing like absolute dog shite against Alabama. Coaches go with the percentages, and the percentages said stick with Jefferson.


quote:

How about these stats: 44 plays, 92 yards, 5 first downs, 0 points.
If you want to substitute, substitute the o-line. The QB was NOT the problem. He was completing his passes. The problem was the o-line committing penalties, failing to run block, and failing to pass block.


quote:

Defend Miles all you want, but when you continue to do it about 1/9/12, you lose all credibility.
If it comes to a decision to play Jefferson or Lee in the second half, the percentages STRONGLY favored Jefferson. It's not really debatable.
Posted by atltiger6487
Member since May 2011
18158 posts
Posted on 8/4/15 at 3:03 pm to
quote:

Alabama, Auburn, and Ole Miss had senior quarterbacks


So tiresome. You're only looking at age, with no context.

Blake Sims, yes, was a senior, but he'd never taken a meaningful snap at QB before last year. And he had a brand new OC, so it was his first year in that system. So no experience and a new system, yet he somehow managed to play well.

Nick Marshall played well as a Jr and Sr at Auburn. Prior to his junior year, he'd never taken a D-I snap at QB and was in his first year under Gus's system. No experience and a new system, yet he somehow managed to play well.

Even Bo Wallace, who started 3 years at Ole Miss, had nearly identical stats each of his 3 years there. So his sophomore year at Ole Miss he played very well, with zero D-I snaps under his belt.

QBs don't have wait until their Jr or Sr year to be productive. Many do it earlier, and those that do it later often don't have any meaningful experience.

Moral of the story - talented guys can produce, regardless of experience.

Do I need to mention Manziel, Winston, and Cam Newton? Yes, I'm picking Heisman winners, but each of them hadn't taken a meaningful snap as a D-I QB before their Heisman year (Manziel and Winston had zero).
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