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re: How solar power could slay the fossil fuel empire by 2030
Posted on 6/18/15 at 10:11 am to autodd03
Posted on 6/18/15 at 10:11 am to autodd03
I don't think there is a lot butt hurt here. Just rational thinking. If you don't think the super majors have big tabs on every alternative energy source, one you don't read the paper, and two they have a 100 year history of adapting. They already all trade power. No one in the world has the capital to accomplish a major energy infrastructure change at the scale that would need to occur other than big oil. In many respects, it may be the rich getting richer.
The second is the timeline - the technology could shift rapidly but it would take years to physically acquire just the raw materials to replace what exists now. Factor in permitting, saving sand tortises and migratory patterns of birds or what other counter productive green initiatives there are and you have a long lead time for wind and solar if it started today. Current nuclear plants have a 20 yr lead time. It is not happening over night.
The second is the timeline - the technology could shift rapidly but it would take years to physically acquire just the raw materials to replace what exists now. Factor in permitting, saving sand tortises and migratory patterns of birds or what other counter productive green initiatives there are and you have a long lead time for wind and solar if it started today. Current nuclear plants have a 20 yr lead time. It is not happening over night.
This post was edited on 6/18/15 at 10:15 am
1
Posted on 6/18/15 at 10:15 am to SoDakHawk
quote:
They are running at about 93% efficient and are selling excess energy back to the grid.
horseshite. The BEST experimental solar cells are barely 20% efficient. The best commercially available cells are less than half that efficient. Wish you people wouldn't have slept through your grade school science courses. One thing that seems to escape the understanding of those that pimp solar power as some sort of panacea to our energy needs is that even if a solar cell was 100% efficient, the area required to meet current energy needs in the US would be huge. A solar grid larger than NYC and receiving direct sunlight no less than 355 days a year. Solar will always be a power source that relies on a more reliable and energy-dense method. Nuclear power, at some point, will have to become that source.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 10:17 am to Clames
quote:
Solar will always be a power source that relies on a more reliable and energy-dense method.
I see it as being a secondary source going forward - perhaps becoming the primary source for residential needs - in some prime solar areas.
quote:
Nuclear power, at some point, will have to become that source.
I agree - although technically not renewable, will do until renewable, reliable, high-density comes along.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 10:19 am to YouAre8Up
quote:
Try flying in a plane powered only by solar.
you are the wind beneath my wings
Posted on 6/18/15 at 10:25 am to Clames
quote:
Nuclear power, at some point, will have to become that source.
This. People in a hundred years will wonder why it took us so long to safely utilize nuclear power. Current designs are fail-safe as opposed to the old designs that rely on backup power in order to safely power down. Nuclear is coming.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 10:26 am to Clames
The economy of scale for solar is improving as we speak.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 10:27 am to Cypdog
No one is claiming that "big oil" won't be a player in solar. The Rockefellers have been a player in almost every industry, especially energy, for over the last 100 years. 
Posted on 6/18/15 at 10:30 am to gorillacoco
It will hit first with big corporations, non-profits, and municipalities. I can't say too much about it, but I know we have some things in the works with major universities and municipalities investing in Solar power. Eventually this will trickle down to residential. But for now it is cost prohibitive and not enough of a return for the average middle class family to bother with. Like someone else said, ranchers and farmers are doing this in places to power operations, but they have a lot more going on than running the air conditioner, large appliances, and lights.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 10:40 am to autodd03
Fair point, the thread title implies that the fossil fuel empire will be dead at somepoint. I think it will just change "it's name" to energy empire and live forever.
The people most at risk are the uneducated part of the workforce who will need to retool whenever the change happens. Hopefully it is a more graceful transition than the rust belt and manufacturing centers of the country.
The people most at risk are the uneducated part of the workforce who will need to retool whenever the change happens. Hopefully it is a more graceful transition than the rust belt and manufacturing centers of the country.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 10:42 am to Clames
quote:
Horse shite. The BEST experimental solar cells are barely 20% efficient.
Just regurgitating back the reports I have read. That's all.
I think we may be misunderstanding each other here, or maybe I used the wrond terminology. How about if I rephrase it by saying the solar units are providing 93% of the power the farm needs and they are also selling power back to the grid at peak times. Does that make more sense than when I said 93% efficient?
Posted on 6/18/15 at 10:53 am to SoDakHawk
quote:
Just regurgitating back the reports I have read. That's all.
I think we may be misunderstanding each other here, or maybe I used the wrond terminology. How about if I rephrase it by saying the solar units are providing 93% of the power the farm needs and they are also selling power back to the grid at peak times. Does that make more sense than when I said 93% efficient?
Running irrigation pumps and such is a perfect application for solar. Except for when it's cloudy, because they don't work then, but still...
Solar energy will never power any of the equipment that currently runs on diesel (tractors, combines, semi-trucks).
Posted on 6/18/15 at 11:02 am to Placebeaux
Tell him to call me back when he can fly to Europe (or anywhere else for that matter) on solar power. 
Posted on 6/18/15 at 11:25 am to Placebeaux
I work for large coal. Trying to get into solar. I too think it is the future.
ETA:
I personally think building nuclear plants is irresponsible. The most advanced civilizations on the planet have only lasted 500-1000 years. Those reactors will be active for 100,000+ thousand years. And I have worked on the construction of some. Just my opinion though.
ETA:
I personally think building nuclear plants is irresponsible. The most advanced civilizations on the planet have only lasted 500-1000 years. Those reactors will be active for 100,000+ thousand years. And I have worked on the construction of some. Just my opinion though.
This post was edited on 6/18/15 at 11:35 am
Posted on 6/18/15 at 11:27 am to autodd03
No, it's just common sense. If anything, the guy telling the oil/gas companies that they will be out of business in 15 years is hilarious. As many posters have pointed out, oil/gas isn't just for power, it's used for many other applications.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 11:56 am to Placebeaux
That isn't the argument nor does it trump the technical limitations. You might believe in "free energy" YouTube videos but those of us that paid attention in school do not.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 12:02 pm to Clames
ha wat?
Posted on 6/18/15 at 12:06 pm to SoDakHawk
quote:
Does that make more sense than when I said 93% efficient?
No, no it doesn't. 93% efficient is relative to what? Can say 93% of the energy is provided by solar cells (farms are not terribly demanding of electricity anyways) but that has nothing to do with efficiency. The best use for solar cells is to supplement high-use devices like residential HVAC systems. A modest array on most homes would be enough to take up 30% - 50% of that requirement and take a lot of peak-use strain off the national grid.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 12:24 pm to Clames
He says the fossil fuel empire and people assume all he's talking about is oil.
In the US, oil comprises less than 1% or our energy use, and that's really just Hawaii's dumbass.
Natural Gas comprises 27% and is pretty cheap down here, which is why we are attracting new plants right now.
Coal, which is a fossil fuel, compromises 40%.
The oil companies aren't the ones in danger, the coal companies are. And until solar becomes much much much much more efficient, as well as our ability to store electricity, no one is in danger to solar power.
In the US, oil comprises less than 1% or our energy use, and that's really just Hawaii's dumbass.
Natural Gas comprises 27% and is pretty cheap down here, which is why we are attracting new plants right now.
Coal, which is a fossil fuel, compromises 40%.
The oil companies aren't the ones in danger, the coal companies are. And until solar becomes much much much much more efficient, as well as our ability to store electricity, no one is in danger to solar power.
Posted on 6/18/15 at 12:37 pm to TeddyPadillac
Oil's response:
Posted on 6/18/15 at 12:43 pm to Placebeaux
quote:
Seba began his career at Cisco Systems in 1993, where he predicted the internet-fueled mobile revolution at a time when most telecoms experts were warning of the impossibility of building an Internet the size of the US, let alone the world. Now he is predicting the “inevitable” disruption of the fossil fuel infrastructure.
Did he also predict the 80-something percent crash of Cisco stock in the early 2000s, when most experts were predicting a continuing rise?
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