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An unemotional look at LSU's NCAA tourney chances
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:33 pm
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:33 pm
Going in to today, LSU was a 9 seed, above 11 at-large teams, according to bracket matrix which is an average of over 100 projection websites. LSU would have to fall below all 11 plus another team previously out to not get in.
Bracket Matrix
Here are the teams that were below LSU according to bracket matrix. Note: while I trust Lunardi, I also trust the effect of averaging a large population:
1. Davidson (won today)
2. Colorado State (vs. san Diego State tonight)
3. Georgia (vs. SC tonight)
4. Ok State (lost to OU)
5. Boise State
6. Texas (lost to Iowa State)
7. Purdue (won today)
8. Temple (won today)
9. Ole Miss (lost to SC yesterday)
10. Indiana (plays Maryland tonight)
11. BYU
========
12. UCLA (Arizona tonight)
13. Texas A&M (no way they pass us)
14. Old Dominion (lost to Middle Tenn yesterday; can't see them passing us)
15. Miami (lost last night, no way they catch us imo)
I didn't update all the info but put what I knew in parenthesis. Certainly some of those teams will pass us up, but it is hard to imagine 12 of them passing. Would be good to see UCLA and Indiana lose.
And FYI, I find it ironic that the complaint against LSU (legitimately) is that we lose to weak teams (often at home) but beat beat good teams away from home...yet everyone is saying we are 100% one in done in a tourney full of good teams away from home.
Bracket Matrix
Here are the teams that were below LSU according to bracket matrix. Note: while I trust Lunardi, I also trust the effect of averaging a large population:
1. Davidson (won today)
2. Colorado State (vs. san Diego State tonight)
3. Georgia (vs. SC tonight)
4. Ok State (lost to OU)
5. Boise State
6. Texas (lost to Iowa State)
7. Purdue (won today)
8. Temple (won today)
9. Ole Miss (lost to SC yesterday)
10. Indiana (plays Maryland tonight)
11. BYU
========
12. UCLA (Arizona tonight)
13. Texas A&M (no way they pass us)
14. Old Dominion (lost to Middle Tenn yesterday; can't see them passing us)
15. Miami (lost last night, no way they catch us imo)
I didn't update all the info but put what I knew in parenthesis. Certainly some of those teams will pass us up, but it is hard to imagine 12 of them passing. Would be good to see UCLA and Indiana lose.
And FYI, I find it ironic that the complaint against LSU (legitimately) is that we lose to weak teams (often at home) but beat beat good teams away from home...yet everyone is saying we are 100% one in done in a tourney full of good teams away from home.
This post was edited on 3/13/15 at 5:47 pm
12
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:35 pm to lsumatt
looking at those teams i feel like we should be safe. At most only 9 of them should be able to move up. the other ones have lost around the same time as us so we should be ok.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:36 pm to lsumatt
We should be in regardless, people saying "NIT" are just frustrated with the loss. Enough other bubble teams around us lost that we should be fine.
Agreed. If we'd found a way to win today, I wouldn't have been surprised at all if we'd given Kentucky a game. That's just how this team operates.
quote:
And FYI, I find it ironic that the complaint against LSU (legitimately) is that we lose to weak teams (often at home) but beat beat good teams away from home...yet everyone is saying we are 100% one in done in a tourney full of good teams away from home.
Agreed. If we'd found a way to win today, I wouldn't have been surprised at all if we'd given Kentucky a game. That's just how this team operates.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:38 pm to lsumatt
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:41 pm to lsumatt
quote:
yet everyone is saying we are 100% one in done in a tourney
I think it's pretty clear that the frustration being shown is that people know LSU can beat good teams.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:41 pm to lsumatt
ODU lost to Middle Tennessee too. They're done.
I could've sworn the goal before the season was to just reach the tournament. We've very likely reached the NCAA, so why do people want to fire our coach? Isn't job performance based on reaching your goals? Wasn't our only goal to reach the tournament? We've fricking done that. Not only are we going to the tourney, but we're going to get the No.1 recruiting class. I mean holy frick somebody help me.
I could've sworn the goal before the season was to just reach the tournament. We've very likely reached the NCAA, so why do people want to fire our coach? Isn't job performance based on reaching your goals? Wasn't our only goal to reach the tournament? We've fricking done that. Not only are we going to the tourney, but we're going to get the No.1 recruiting class. I mean holy frick somebody help me.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:44 pm to lsumatt
I'm guessing one of the play-in games.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 5:56 pm to lsumatt
We should be talking about a nice seed. Instead hoping to sneak in.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 7:36 pm to lsumatt
quote:
FYI, I find it ironic that the complaint against LSU (legitimately) is that we lose to weak teams (often at home) but beat beat good teams away from home...yet everyone is saying we are 100% one in done in a tourney full of good teams away from home.
In the SEC tournament I was more worried about the low seeds than the high seeds. If LSU can avoid playing low seeds in the NCAA tournament they can win a few games.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 7:48 pm to lsumatt
FWIW Jerry Palm at CBS and the guy at SI both still have us comfortably in.
quote:
Jerry Palm
?@jppalmCBS
not about making the tournament RT @kevingazzale: Should LSU be worried?
This post was edited on 3/13/15 at 7:48 pm
Posted on 3/13/15 at 7:49 pm to lsumatt
1) today locked up an NIT berth.
2) why would you want to watch this lazy team with zero killer instinct anyway? Just adds another L to the tourney resume.
2) why would you want to watch this lazy team with zero killer instinct anyway? Just adds another L to the tourney resume.
Posted on 3/13/15 at 8:14 pm to lsumatt
i agree with you 100% buddy. nice post
Posted on 3/13/15 at 9:32 pm to lsumatt
UCLA is winning. A win would hurt us, but I think Indiana would fall out before we do.
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