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Message
re: Going for 2 in that situation.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:53 pm to slackster
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:53 pm to slackster
Well I’m trying to do the math but when someone posts this
Of course it confuses any of us, cause it’s not right
We’re all trying to analyze this in our head.
quote:
Going for 2: - make the 1st one 50% of the time, you win - Miss 1st and 2nd 25% of the time, you lose - Miss 1st and make 2nd to get to OT 25% of the time.
Of course it confuses any of us, cause it’s not right
We’re all trying to analyze this in our head.
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 9:55 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:55 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:My last post I explained that I did not say exactly this. I said you make the 1st 2pt conversion 50% of the time, and for the sake of this discussion, we are assuming in every scenario you do score 2 TDs.
Maybe I am misunderstanding you . When you go for 2 down 8, you do NOT win 50% of the time.
And no you don't automatically win in the above scenario but you do take the lead. All of these things are understood by everyone else in this discussion it seems, fwiw. We're simplifying things here. Of course you can go up 1 and the other team can come down and kick a FG. That's not relevant to this discussion, so it's not factored in.
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 9:57 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 9:59 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:Again, a bunch of posters across all these pages understood it, so it's odd to say "of course it confuses us" when it didn't confuse "us" as it was mostly just you being confused lol. You're in the minority of this thread in terms of not understanding what we're discussing.
Of course it confuses any of us
Posted on 1/22/24 at 10:03 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
Of course it confuses any of us, cause it’s not right We’re all trying to analyze this in our head.
I can’t speak for everyone but most seem to understand the concept. There is an assumption that you’ve scored again. I realize shel didn’t post it but it was implied.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 10:05 pm to shel311
I understand the math, but don’t present it as a 50% chance of winning if you go for 2 the first time.
That’s how I read it, and I clearly misread what you were saying (with assumptions), but you know that’s not right.
That’s how I read it, and I clearly misread what you were saying (with assumptions), but you know that’s not right.
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 10:06 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 10:11 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:Honest question, can you tell me the number of times I have to explain to you I didn't at all say what you keep claiming and also explained to you exactly what I did say before you'll actually grasp it?
understand the math, but don’t present it as a 50% chance of winning if you go for 2 the first time
quote:This thread just isn't for you, if we're being honest. Seems virtually everyone fully understands the discussion and is operating under all the same assumptions I made re: scoring 2 TDs that you don't understand.
That’s how I read it, and I clearly misread what you were saying (with assumptions), but you know that’s not right.
Most importantly, you seem to be the only one seemingly unable to grasp WHY these assumptions are being made. It's been explained to you multiple times very clearly and you're no closer to understanding than before. I'm not sure how else to help you get up to speed in this discussion.
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 10:13 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 11:01 pm to shel311
Man we’re ALL - including basically every NFL and college coach - trying to wrap our head around this.
It doesn’t make sense to many of us. And it probably didn’t to you 2-3 years ago…... I’m reading… and trying to learn, don’t be mean.
Well clearly everyone doesn’t, myself included.
And I quoted exactly what you said… 50/25/25 (which - like I said - is not correct. As you know)
This is what you said. I’m well aware it isn’t what you meant, but nonetheless this is what you said:
Those are your posts man. As you know, that math is not correct.
It doesn’t make sense to many of us. And it probably didn’t to you 2-3 years ago…... I’m reading… and trying to learn, don’t be mean.
quote:
Seems virtually everyone fully understands the discussion
Well clearly everyone doesn’t, myself included.
And I quoted exactly what you said… 50/25/25 (which - like I said - is not correct. As you know)
This is what you said. I’m well aware it isn’t what you meant, but nonetheless this is what you said:
quote:
Honest question, can you tell me the number of times I have to explain to you I didn't at all say what you keep claiming
quote:
Going for 2: - make the 1st one 50% of the time, you win - Miss 1st and 2nd 25% of the time, you lose - Miss 1st and make 2nd to get to OT 25% of the time.
Those are your posts man. As you know, that math is not correct.
This post was edited on 1/22/24 at 11:18 pm
Posted on 1/22/24 at 11:21 pm to JPLSU1981
That math is basically correct though. The numbers might not be exact (because 50% isn’t the exact rate of success on 2 pt attempts), but if you do convert your 2 pt attempts 50% of the time, you win 62.5% of the time and lose 37.5% of the time.
I showed the math on converting 2 pt attempts 40% of the time and why it still makes sense then.
I showed the math on converting 2 pt attempts 40% of the time and why it still makes sense then.
Posted on 1/22/24 at 11:22 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
Man we’re ALL - including basically every NFL and college coach - trying to wrap our head around this. It doesn’t make sense to many of us. and it probably didn’t to you initially. I’m reading… and trying to learn, don’t be mean.
Should probably start fresh then.
Every discussion about this is going to typically assume the defensive stop and another offensive score to illustrate why going for 2 down 8 is smart. People go there to illustrate why going for 2 on the first TD is better than going for 2 on the 2nd TD only. It helps isolate the math so people can understand the logic.
A good article that discusses this with the assumption of scoring again
However, the actual winning chances are low period.
Posted on 1/23/24 at 2:46 am to slackster
I think the people arguing against it are so caught up in the moment that they don't stop and think 'maybe the people that get paid 10s of millions of dollars a year have all started doing this for a logical reason rather than just following the trend'
Like, does bill belichick seem like the type of guy (a defensive specialist) to just start going for 2s in that situation because someone tells him to? Or he saw the math and said yeah that makes sense.
Meanwhile random jackasses that never coached a game in their life will watch it happen in a playoff game and give their 2 cents haha. Yeah if it doesn't work it sucks
Like, does bill belichick seem like the type of guy (a defensive specialist) to just start going for 2s in that situation because someone tells him to? Or he saw the math and said yeah that makes sense.
Meanwhile random jackasses that never coached a game in their life will watch it happen in a playoff game and give their 2 cents haha. Yeah if it doesn't work it sucks
This post was edited on 1/23/24 at 2:49 am
Posted on 1/23/24 at 3:09 am to Corinthians420
quote:
I think the people arguing against it are so caught up in the moment that they don't stop and think 'maybe the people that get paid 10s of millions of dollars a year have all started doing this for a logical reason rather than just following the trend'
Like, does bill belichick seem like the type of guy (a defensive specialist) to just start going for 2s in that situation because someone tells him to? Or he saw the math and said yeah that makes sense.
Meanwhile random jackasses that never coached a game in their life will watch it happen in a playoff game and give their 2 cents haha. Yeah if it doesn't work it sucks
Maybe some folks here have a more nuanced view of probability than you realize.
And whether your appeal to authority works or not in the context of the actual game depends on whether Mike Evans has a much higher conversion percentage on fade routes than the typical receiver does on all other routes and than he has on other routes since the fade is by far the lowest probability common goal line throw.
Posted on 1/23/24 at 8:26 am to Diseasefreeforall
Yeah, if you’re playing the math you don’t run a fade. But I guess most people who thought the Bucs should go for two would also agree that it was a dumb play call.
Posted on 1/23/24 at 8:27 am to JPLSU1981
quote:1. I wasn't being mean
I’m reading… and trying to learn, don’t be mean.
2. You say you're reading but I've explained something to you directly and concisely in 3 or probably more different posts and this is now the 4th time you've responded completely ignoring what I said.
You also said you were a football coach, so it's pretty surprising that this is something you still haven't learned yet?
quote:
And I quoted exactly what you said… 50/25/25 (which - like I said - is not correct. As you know)
quote:Again, this is why I politely said this conversation isn't for you. This is probably the 5th or 6th straight post you've repeated this. Myself, and now others, have replied to you to explain the assumptions made that make this NOT incorrect. If you didn't catch the assumptions at first, that's fine, no big deal. But why are you repeating this 6 times later when it's been explained to you 6 times the assumptions that make the math correct?
Those are your posts man. As you know, that math is not correct.
You said in this post I'm replying to that you're trying to learn. But you've shown that you're either unable or unwilling to try to learn by consistently ignoring the explanations that have been given to you over and over. Do you honestly disagree with what I just said?
Posted on 1/23/24 at 11:42 am to Dawgsontop34
quote:
Yeah, if you’re playing the math you don’t run a fade. But I guess most people who thought the Bucs should go for two would also agree that it was a dumb play call.
Yep. Shitty play call.
Also what was up with Bills trying to throw 75 yard dimes with the game on the line down 3. The probability of those are pretty low
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