re: Going for 2 in that situation.

if you are afraid to go for 2 despite the obvious mathematical advantage it provides, you shouldn't be an NFL head coach to begin with.

fear-based decision making is flawed.

your goal is to give your team the BEST chance to succeed. yes, going for 2 will give you a 38% chance of losing, but kicking the XP gives you a 51.3% chance of losing, even if it is the "safe" move

Vegas uses math to set lines.

Coaches and scouts use math to evaluate player’s statistics and measurables.

Coach uses math to make a decision in the game: OMG WHAT A RETARD

Vegas lines aren’t predictions doofus. They’re bait to attract action and the fact that you don’t know the difference proves you’re just a sucker.

The line was 6.5 at kickoff. If they get the 2, they cover. They didn’t convert so it went the other way. I’d say Vegas is pretty good at what they do.

They rely on any and all anecdotal evidence to support their claims while ignoring the fact if they compile all anecdotal evidence, it leans opposite of their narrative. If you trust the math, you’ll be right more times than not. Again, this is beyond just football.

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Good coaches who believe they have good teams welcome extended time because the more plays that take place the better your chances are if you’re the better team.

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this is just false. Good coaches go for 2. We've seen Belichick, Shanahan, McDaniels all do it in this situation.

Saban went for 2 up 8 against Ole Miss rather than making it a 2 possession game by kicking the XP.

is Saban not a good coach? here's what he had to say

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"Well some people think it's unusual. Some people don't," said Saban on the SEC Coaches Teleconference on Wednesday. "We always make a decision before the game starts at what point in the game would we go for two. Middle to late in the third quarter and fourth quarter was kind of what our philosophy was going into that game, so that's exactly what we did.

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he makes the decision before the game so that he doesnt have to make an EMOTIONAL decision. it is strictly math-based.

is Saban not a good coach?

You continue to make things up. No your chances of winning a football game down 13 points in the 4th is not 62% if you go for 2. That’s false and I never said good coaches never go for 2.

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The other problem is the analytics don't account for human nature. I'm sure Detroit's players felt a whole lot more comfortable with a 31-23 lead than they would have at 31-24.

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Couldn't you make the same argument that Detroit would feel less comfortable if Tampa would have gotten the 2 point conversion and Detroit was only up 6?

Before the prevalence of analytics in the league, coaches would routinely punt from the other team’s 40 yard line in 4th and <5 to go situations. That’s the side they’re taking right now. Unbelievable.

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and then take it to ot?

Might as well kick two xps if you want to play for ot.

If you’re really adamant on playing to win/lose in regulation put all the chips on the second attempt.

Two low probability attempts vs one low probability attempt.

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Yes, the 50% of the time that your first 2 point conversion didn't work, you still get a chance to take it to OT. The 50% of the time that the first 2pt did work, you can take the PAT and not even have to play OT.